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Uncertainty and the disappearance of international credit

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  • Joshua Aizenman
  • Nancy Marion

Abstract

We show that increased uncertainty about the size of an emerging market's external debt has a nonlinear and potentially large adverse effect on the supply of international credit offered to them. We also show that if international creditors are first- order risk averse, attaching greater weight to utility derived from bad outcomes than from good ones, a moderate increase in uncertainty about debt overhang or about other relevant factors affecting repayment prospects-- can cause the supply of credit to dry up completely. We therefore offer one possible explanation for why emerging markets may find themselves suddenly cut off from international capital markets.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Proceedings.

Volume (Year): (1999)
Issue (Month): Sep ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:1999:i:sep:x:4

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Keywords: Debt ; Banks and banking; International ; Risk;

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Cited by:
  1. Marion, Nancy P., 2000. "Optimal currency crises A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 231-238, December.
  2. Theo S Eicher & Uwe Walz & Stephen Turnovsky, 2000. "Financial Liberalization and Capital Flow Reversals:," Working Papers 0003, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  3. Joshua Aizenman, 1999. "Capital Controls and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 7398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Joshua Aizenman, 2005. "Financial sector inefficiencies and the debt Laffer curve," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 1-13.

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