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Capital Controls and Financial Crises

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  • Joshua Aizenman

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to explain the reluctance of developing countries to open up their capital market to foreigners, and the conditions inducing an emerging market economy to switch its policies. We consider an economy characterized initially by a one-sided openness to the capital market domestic agents can borrow internationally, but foreign agents cannot hold domestic equity. We identify conditions under which the emerging market's capitalists would oppose financial reform. This would be the case if 'green field' investment by multinationals would bid up real wages, reducing thereby the rents of domestic capitalists. A financial crisis that raises the domestic interest rate and causes a real exchange rate depreciation may induce the emerging market's capitalists to support opening up the economy to FDI. This attitude switch is more likely to occur the greater the debt overhang, the lower the borrowing constraint, and the weaker the market power of foreign entrepreneurs. Even in these circumstances, the emerging market's capitalists would prefer a partial reform to a comprehensive one -- they would prefer to maintain the restrictions on 'green field' FDI.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7398.

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Date of creation: Oct 1999
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7398

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  1. Joshua Aizenman & Nancy P. Marion, 1999. "Uncertainty and the Disappearance of International Credit," NBER Working Papers 7389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Buffie, Edward F, 1993. "Direct Foreign Investment, Crowding Out, and Underemployment in the Dualistic Economy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(4), pages 639-67, October.
  3. Robert C. Feenstra & Gordon H. Hanson, 1995. "Foreign Direct Investment and Relative Wages: Evidence from Mexico's Maquiladoras," NBER Working Papers 5122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Michael P. Dooley, 1997. "A Model of Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "Paper tigers? A model of the Asian crisis," Research Paper 9822, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  6. Ann E. Harrison & Brian J. Aitken, 1999. "Do Domestic Firms Benefit from Direct Foreign Investment? Evidence from Venezuela," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 605-618, June.
  7. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Chang, R. & Velasco, A., 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: A Canonical Model," Working Papers, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University 98-21, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  9. Paul Krugman, 2000. "Fire-Sale FDI," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 43-58 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Ricardo Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 1998. "Emerging Market Crises: An Asset Markets Perspective," Working papers 98-18, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  11. Haddad, Mona & Harrison, Ann, 1993. "Are there positive spillovers from direct foreign investment? : Evidence from panel data for Morocco," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 51-74, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Gabriella Montinola & Ramon Moreno, 2001. "The political economy of foreign bank entry and its impact: theory and a case study," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2001-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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