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Systemic Loss: A Measure of Financial Stability (in English)

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Author Info
Martin ČIHÁK () (International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.)

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Abstract

The literature on modeling defaults in individual financial institutions has expanded dramatically. However, the links between defaults in individual institutions and system-wide crises remain inadequately understood, despite some recent attempts to transpose the existing indicators of the probability of default in individual institutions to the systemic level. The paper argues that any measure of systemic stability should incorporate three elements: probabilities of failure in individual financial institutions, loss given default in financial institutions, and correlation of defaults across institutions. It contains a review of existing measures of financial stability and finds that they generally fall short of this standard. The author demonstrates that looking at the distribution of systemic loss can lead to a clearer differentiation of cases of stability and instability.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences in its journal Finance a uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 57 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1-2 (March)
Pages: 5-26
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Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:57:y:2007:i:1-2:p:5-26

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Related research
Keywords: failures; financial sector; market-based indicators; soundness indicators;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
K20 - Law and Economics - - Regulation and Business Law - - - General
L50 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - General

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Allen N. Berger & Sally M. Davies & Mark J. Flannery, 2000. "Comparing market and supervisory assessments of bank performance: who knows what when?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 641-670.
    Other versions:
  2. Antonio Garcia Pascual & Renzo G. Avesani & Jing Li, 2006. "A New Risk Indicator and Stress Testing Tool: A Multifactor Nth-to-Default CDS Basket," IMF Working Papers 06/105, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Thierry Tressel & Enrica Detragiache & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, 2006. "Banking on the Principles: Compliance with Basel Core Principles and Bank Soundness," IMF Working Papers 06/242, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Fons, Jerome S, 1987. " The Default Premium and Corporate Bond Experience," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 81-97, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. James, Christopher, 1991. " The Losses Realized in Bank Failures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1223-42, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Jeffery W. Gunther & Mark E. Levonian & Robert R. Moore, 2001. "Can the stock market tell bank supervisors anything they don't already know?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 2-9. [Downloadable!]
  7. Bongini, Paola & Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1011-1028, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006. "Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Amadou N. R. Sy & Jorge A. Chan-Lau, 2006. "Distance-to-Default in Banking: A Bridge Too Far?," IMF Working Papers 06/215, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. Arnaud Jobert & Janet Kong & Jorge A. Chan-Lau, 2004. "An Option-Based Approach to Bank Vulnerabilities in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 04/33, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Michael T. Gapen & Yingbin Xiao & Cheng Hoom Lim & Dale F. Gray, 2004. "The Contingent Claims Approach to Corporate Vulnerability Analysis: Estimating Default Risk and Economy-wide Risk Transfer," IMF Working Papers 04/121, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  13. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Renzo G. Avesani, 2005. "FIRST: A Market-Based Approach to Evaluate Financial System Risk and Stability," IMF Working Papers 05/232, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  15. John Krainer & Jose A. Lopez, 2003. "How might financial market information be used for supervisory purposes?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 29-45. [Downloadable!]
  16. Martin Cihák & Heiko Hesse, 2007. "Cooperative Banks and Financial Stability," IMF Working Papers 07/2, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  17. Andrew Kuritzkes & Til Schuermann & Scott Weiner, 2005. "Deposit Insurance and Risk Management of the U.S. Banking System: What is the Loss Distribution Faced by the FDIC?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 217-242, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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