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Systemic Loss: A Measure of Financial Stability (in English)

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Abstract

The literature on modeling defaults in individual financial institutions has expanded dramatically. However, the links between defaults in individual institutions and system-wide crises remain inadequately understood, despite some recent attempts to transpose the existing indicators of the probability of default in individual institutions to the systemic level. The paper argues that any measure of systemic stability should incorporate three elements: probabilities of failure in individual financial institutions, loss given default in financial institutions, and correlation of defaults across institutions. It contains a review of existing measures of financial stability and finds that they generally fall short of this standard. The author demonstrates that looking at the distribution of systemic loss can lead to a clearer differentiation of cases of stability and instability.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences in its journal Finance a uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 57 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1-2 (March)
Pages: 5-26

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Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:57:y:2007:i:1-2:p:5-26

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Keywords: failures; financial sector; market-based indicators; soundness indicators;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Martin Cihák & Petya Koeva Brooks, 2009. "From Subprime Loans to Subprime Growth? Evidence for the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 09/69, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Klaus Schaeck & Martin Cihak & Andrea Maechler & Stephanie Stolz, 2011. "Who Disciplines Bank Managers?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 16(1), pages 197-243.
  3. Martín Saldías, 2012. "Systemic Risk Analysis using Forward-Looking Distance-to-Default Series," Working Papers w201216, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  4. Ali, Asghar & Daly, Kevin, 2010. "Macroeconomic determinants of credit risk: Recent evidence from a cross country study," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 165-171, June.
  5. Casu, Barbara & Clare, Andrew & Saleh, Nashwa, 2011. "Towards a new model for early warning signals for systemic financial fragility and near crises: an application to OECD countries," MPRA Paper 37043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Tigran Poghosyan & Martin Cihák, 2009. "Distress in European Banks," IMF Working Papers 09/9, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Hassan Ghassan & Stefano Fachin & Abdelkarim Guendouz, 2013. "Financial Stability of Islamic and Conventional Banks in Saudi Arabia: a Time Series Analysis," DSS Empirical Economics and Econometrics Working Papers Series 2013/1, Centre for Empirical Economics and Econometrics, Department of Statistics, "Sapienza" University of Rome.
  8. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2010. "Forecasting The Romanian Financial System Stability Using A Stochastic Simulation Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 81-98, March.
  9. Ghassan, Hassan B. & Taher, Farid B., 2013. "Financial Stability of Islamic and Conventional Banks in Saudi Arabia: Evidence using Pooled and Panel Models," MPRA Paper 54472, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2013.

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