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Macroeconomic determinants of credit risk: Recent evidence from a cross country study

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  • Ali, Asghar
  • Daly, Kevin
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    Abstract

    The study of financial stability has become the cornerstone of modern macroeconomic policy particularly for developed countries. The recent global financial crisis has underscored the importance of understanding financial instability especially in the context of managing credit risk with particular emphasis on the banking sector. The key motivation for this paper is to improve our understanding of credit risk modelling at the country level especially under the framework of Basel II capital adequacy standards. The aim of the study is to investigate the interaction between the cyclical implications of aggregate defaults in an economy and the capital stock of a bank. The approach used requires the construction of a macroeconomic credit model that provides the framework to perform scenario analysis. Within this framework, our study forms the basis of a comparative analysis of two countries, a relatively immune economy from the recent crisis--Australia and the worst effected economy--the USA. The key questions posed in the study are which macroeconomic variables are important for both countries in addition we examine the impact of adverse macroeconomic shocks on default rates in both countries. The results indicate that the same set of macroeconomic variables display different default rates for the two counties. Additionally the study finds that compared to Australia, the US economy is much more susceptible to adverse macroeconomic shocks.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Review of Financial Analysis.

    Volume (Year): 19 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 3 (June)
    Pages: 165-171

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:19:y:2010:i:3:p:165-171

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166

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    Keywords: Financial stability Credit risk Basel II;

    References

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    1. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    2. Akhter, Selim & Daly, Kevin, 2009. "Bank health in varying macroeconomic conditions: A panel study," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 285-293, December.
    3. Martin CIHAK, 2007. "Systemic Loss: A Measure of Financial Stability (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(1-2), pages 5-26, March.
    4. Danielsson, Jon & Shin, Hyun Song & Zigrand, Jean-Pierre, 2004. "The impact of risk regulation on price dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 1069-1087, May.
    5. Darren Pain, 2003. "The provisioning experience of the major UK banks: a small panel investigation," Bank of England working papers 177, Bank of England.
    6. Hume, Michael & Sentance, Andrew, 2009. "The global credit boom: challenges for macroeconomics and policy," Discussion Papers 27, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    7. Claudio Borio & Craig Furfine & Philip Lowe, 2001. "Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: issues and policy options," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 1-57 Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Carol Alexander & Elizabeth Sheedy, 2007. "Model-Based Stress Tests: Linking Stress Tests to VaR for Market Risk," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2007-02, Henley Business School, Reading University.
    9. Charles A. E. Goodhart, 2005. "What Can Academics Contribute to the Study of Financial Stability?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 36(3), pages 189-203.
    10. Jarrow, Robert A. & Turnbull, Stuart M., 2000. "The intersection of market and credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 271-299, January.
    11. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
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    Cited by:
    1. Vítor Castro, 2012. "Macroeconomic determinants of the credit risk in the banking system: The case of the GIPSI," NIPE Working Papers 11/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    2. Iulia Iuga & Ruxandra Lazea, 2012. "Study Regarding The Influence Of The Unemployment Rate Over Non-Performing Loans In Romania Using The Correlation Indicator," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 2(14), pages 18.
    3. Dobromił Serwa, 2013. "Measuring Non-Performing Loans During (and After) Credit Booms," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 5(3), pages 163-183, September.

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