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Valuation of freight transportation contracts under uncertainty

Author

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  • Tsai, Mei-Ting
  • Saphores, Jean-Daniel
  • Regan, Amelia

Abstract

This paper applies concepts from the theory of Real Options to hedge uncertainty in transportation capacity and cost using derivative contracts, called truckload options. We make three contributions. First, we provide a closed-form pricing formula for basic truckload options when the truckload spot price on a given lane follows a simple mean-reverting process. Second, since only monthly statistics about truckload spot prices are currently available, we provide an approach to estimate the parameters needed to value truckload options. Finally, a numerical illustration based on real data shows that truckload options could be valuable to both shippers and carriers.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsai, Mei-Ting & Saphores, Jean-Daniel & Regan, Amelia, 2011. "Valuation of freight transportation contracts under uncertainty," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 920-932.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:47:y:2011:i:6:p:920-932
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2011.03.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jean-Daniel Saphores & Lynda Khalaf & Denis Pelletier, 2002. "On Jumps and ARCH Effects in Natural Resource Prices: An Application to Pacific Northwest Stumpage Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(2), pages 387-400.
    2. Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. "The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-973, July.
    3. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    4. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andreou, Panayiotis C. & Louca, Christodoulos & Panayides, Photis M., 2012. "Valuation effects of mergers and acquisitions in freight transportation," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 1221-1234.
    2. Michael F. Gorman & John-Paul Clarke & René Koster & Michael Hewitt & Debjit Roy & Mei Zhang, 2023. "Emerging practices and research issues for big data analytics in freight transportation," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 25(1), pages 28-60, March.
    3. Feng, Fenling & Zhang, Jiaqi & Liu, Chengguang, 2023. "Integrated pricing mechanism of China Railway Express whole-process logistics based on the Stackelberg game," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 609(C).
    4. Martin W.P Savelsbergh & Marlin W. Ulmer, 2022. "Challenges and opportunities in crowdsourced delivery planning and operations," 4OR, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 1-21, March.
    5. Scott, Alex, 2015. "The value of information sharing for truckload shippers," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 203-214.
    6. Lindsey, Christopher & Mahmassani, Hani S., 2017. "Sourcing truckload capacity in the transportation spot market: A framework for third party providers," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 261-273.
    7. Zhen, Lu & Wang, Kai & Wang, Shuaian & Qu, Xiaobo, 2018. "Tug scheduling for hinterland barge transport: A branch-and-price approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 265(1), pages 119-132.
    8. Nomikos, Nikos K. & Kyriakou, Ioannis & Papapostolou, Nikos C. & Pouliasis, Panos K., 2013. "Freight options: Price modelling and empirical analysis," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 82-94.
    9. Yolanda Hinojosa & Justo Puerto & Francisco Saldanha-da-Gama, 2014. "A two-stage stochastic transportation problem with fixed handling costs and a priori selection of the distribution channels," TOP: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 22(3), pages 1123-1147, October.
    10. Ahmed Al sharif & Ruwen Qin, 2015. "Double-sided price adjustment flexibility with a preemptive right to exercise," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 226(1), pages 29-50, March.
    11. Yazdani, Majid & Aouam, Tarik, 2023. "Shipment planning and safety stock placement in maritime supply chains with stochastic demand and transportation times," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    12. Alex Scott & Chris Parker & Christopher W. Craighead, 2017. "Service Refusals in Supply Chains: Drivers and Deterrents of Freight Rejection," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(4), pages 1086-1101, November.
    13. Alexandridis, George & Sahoo, Satya & Song, Dong-Wook & Visvikis, Ilias, 2018. "Shipping risk management practice revisited: A new portfolio approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 274-290.
    14. Liu, Shuai & Hua, Guowei & Cheng, T.C.E. & Dong, Jingxin, 2021. "Unmanned vehicle distribution capacity sharing with demand surge under option contracts," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).

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