On Jumps and ARCH Effects in Natural Resource Prices: An Application to Pacific Northwest Stumpage Prices
AbstractContinuous-time models of natural resource prices usually preclude the possibility of large changes (jumps) resulting from unexpected events. To test for the presence of jumps and/or ARCH effects, we combine bounds and the Monte Carlo test technique to obtain finite-sample, level-exact p-values. We apply this methodology to stumpage prices from the Pacific Northwest and find evidence of jumps and ARCH effects. To assess the impact of neglecting jumps on the decision to harvest old-growth timber, we develop an autonomous, infinite-horizon stopping model for which we provide a new method of resolution. Our numerical results show the importance of modeling jumps explicitly. Copyright 2002, Oxford University Press.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its journal American Journal of Agricultural Economics.
Volume (Year): 84 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 555 East Wells Street, Suite 1100, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53202
Phone: (414) 918-3190
Fax: (414) 276-3349
Web page: http://www.aaea.org/
More information through EDIRC
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Saphores, Jean-Daniel & Vincent, Jeffrey R. & Marochko, Valy & Abrudan, Ioan & Bouriaud, Laura & Zinnes, Clifford, 2006. "Detecting collusion in timber auctions : an application to Romania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4105, The World Bank.
- Jean-Thomas Bernard & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian & Sebastien Mcmahon, 2008.
"Forecasting commodity prices: GARCH, jumps, and mean reversion,"
Journal of Forecasting,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 279-291.
- Jean-Thomas Bernard & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian & Sebastien McMahon, 2006. "Forecasting Commodity Prices: GARCH, Jumps, and Mean Reversion," Working Papers 06-14, Bank of Canada.
- McGough, Bruce & Plantinga, Andrew J. & Provencher, William, 2002.
"The Dynamic Behavior of Efficient Timber Prices,"
Staff Paper Series
454, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics.
- Chen, Shan & Insley, Margaret, 2012.
"Regime switching in stochastic models of commodity prices: An application to an optimal tree harvesting problem,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 201-219.
- Shan chen & Margaret Insley, 2010. "Regime Switching in Stochastic Models of Commodity Prices: An Application to an Optimal Tree Harvesting Problem," Working Papers 1016, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2010.
- Shan Chen & Margaret Insley, 2008. "Regime switching in stochastic models of commodity prices: An application to an optimal tree harvesting problem," Working Papers 08003, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics.
- Creamer, Selmin F. & Genz, Alan & Blatner, Keith A., 2012. "The Effect of Fire Risk on the Critical Harvesting Times for Pacific Northwest Douglas-Fir When Carbon Price Is Stochastic," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 41(3), December.
- Hellström, Jörgen & Lundgren, Jens & Yu, Haishan, 2012. "Why do electricity prices jump? Empirical evidence from the Nordic electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1774-1781.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.