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On Jumps and ARCH Effects in Natural Resource Prices: An Application to Pacific Northwest Stumpage Prices

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Author Info

  • Jean-Daniel Saphores
  • Lynda Khalaf
  • Denis Pelletier

Abstract

Continuous-time models of natural resource prices usually preclude the possibility of large changes (jumps) resulting from unexpected events. To test for the presence of jumps and/or ARCH effects, we combine bounds and the Monte Carlo test technique to obtain finite-sample, level-exact p-values. We apply this methodology to stumpage prices from the Pacific Northwest and find evidence of jumps and ARCH effects. To assess the impact of neglecting jumps on the decision to harvest old-growth timber, we develop an autonomous, infinite-horizon stopping model for which we provide a new method of resolution. Our numerical results show the importance of modeling jumps explicitly. Copyright 2002, Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its journal American Journal of Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 84 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 387-400

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Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:84:y:2002:i:2:p:387-400

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Cited by:
  1. Saphores, Jean-Daniel & Vincent, Jeffrey R. & Marochko, Valy & Abrudan, Ioan & Bouriaud, Laura & Zinnes, Clifford, 2006. "Detecting collusion in timber auctions : an application to Romania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4105, The World Bank.
  2. Shan Chen & Margaret Insley, 2008. "Regime switching in stochastic models of commodity prices: An application to an optimal tree harvesting problem," Working Papers 08003, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics.
  3. Tsai, Mei-Ting & Saphores, Jean-Daniel & Regan, Amelia, 2011. "Valuation of freight transportation contracts under uncertainty," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 920-932.
  4. Creamer, Selmin F. & Genz, Alan & Blatner, Keith A., 2012. "The Effect of Fire Risk on the Critical Harvesting Times for Pacific Northwest Douglas-Fir When Carbon Price Is Stochastic," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 41(3), December.
  5. Hellström, Jörgen & Lundgren, Jens & Yu, Haishan, 2012. "Why do electricity prices jump? Empirical evidence from the Nordic electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1774-1781.
  6. McGough, Bruce & Plantinga, Andrew J. & Provencher, William, 2002. "The Dynamic Behavior of Efficient Timber Prices," Staff Paper Series 454, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics.
  7. Jean-Thomas Bernard & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian & Sebastien McMahon, 2006. "Forecasting Commodity Prices: GARCH, Jumps, and Mean Reversion," Working Papers 06-14, Bank of Canada.

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