IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v78y2022icp572-596.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Venture capital staging under economic policy uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Huang, Ying Sophie
  • Wu, Jiajia
  • Guo, Feng

Abstract

Drawing upon a duration analysis framework, this study investigates how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) affects investment staging decisions and exit outcomes in China's venture capital (VC) market. Analyses from a sample of 61,661 venture capital investment decisions support the prediction of the real options theory that VCs delay to refinance their portfolio companies under high EPU. However, such delay effect is largely weakened in severe-VC-competition and high-technology industries, and in better economic conditions. In addition, governmental VCs with greater exposure to economic policy uncertainty are more sensitive to EPU. We further provide evidence that the investments made in times of high EPU have a lower likelihood of successful exit.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Ying Sophie & Wu, Jiajia & Guo, Feng, 2022. "Venture capital staging under economic policy uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 572-596.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:78:y:2022:i:c:p:572-596
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2022.01.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056022000065
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2022.01.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    2. Ewens, Michael & Nanda, Ramana & Rhodes-Kropf, Matthew, 2018. "Cost of experimentation and the evolution of venture capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(3), pages 422-442.
    3. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    4. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Juan Manuel Figueres, 2020. "Economic Policy Uncertainty Spillovers in Booms and Busts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(1), pages 125-155, February.
    5. Nguyen, Nam H. & Phan, Hieu V., 2017. "Policy Uncertainty and Mergers and Acquisitions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(2), pages 613-644, April.
    6. Wang, Yizhong & Chen, Carl R. & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate investment: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 227-243.
    7. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
    8. Çolak, Gönül & Durnev, Art & Qian, Yiming, 2017. "Political Uncertainty and IPO Activity: Evidence from U.S. Gubernatorial Elections," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(6), pages 2523-2564, December.
    9. Bottazzi, Laura & Da Rin, Marco & Hellmann, Thomas, 2008. "Who are the active investors?: Evidence from venture capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 488-512, September.
    10. Li, Yong, 2008. "Duration analysis of venture capital staging: A real options perspective," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 497-512, September.
    11. Tian, Xuan, 2011. "The causes and consequences of venture capital stage financing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 132-159, July.
    12. Gompers, Paul & Kovner, Anna & Lerner, Josh & Scharfstein, David, 2008. "Venture capital investment cycles: The impact of public markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 1-23, January.
    13. Li, Yong & Mahoney, Joseph T., 2011. "When are venture capital projects initiated?," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 239-254, March.
    14. Pham, Anh Viet, 2019. "Political risk and cost of equity: The mediating role of political connections," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 64-87.
    15. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    16. Bonaime, Alice & Gulen, Huseyin & Ion, Mihai, 2018. "Does policy uncertainty affect mergers and acquisitions?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(3), pages 531-558.
    17. Ko, Eun-Jeong & McKelvie, Alexander, 2018. "Signaling for more money: The roles of founders' human capital and investor prominence in resource acquisition across different stages of firm development," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 438-454.
    18. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    19. Steven R. Grenadier, 2002. "Option Exercise Games: An Application to the Equilibrium Investment Strategies of Firms," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 691-721.
    20. Baum, Joel A. C. & Silverman, Brian S., 2004. "Picking winners or building them? Alliance, intellectual, and human capital as selection criteria in venture financing and performance of biotechnology startups," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 411-436, May.
    21. Brandon Julio & Youngsuk Yook, 2012. "Political Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Cycles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 45-84, February.
    22. Shepherd, Dean A. & Ettenson, Richard & Crouch, Andrew, 2000. "New venture strategy and profitability: A venture capitalist's assessment," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 15(5-6), pages 449-467.
    23. Bhattacharya, Utpal & Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Tian, Xuan & Xu, Yan, 2017. "What Affects Innovation More: Policy or Policy Uncertainty?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(5), pages 1869-1901, October.
    24. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    25. Xu, Yongan & Wang, Jianqiong & Chen, Zhonglu & Liang, Chao, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns: New evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    26. Gompers, Paul A, 1995. "Optimal Investment, Monitoring, and the Staging of Venture Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1461-1489, December.
    27. Cheng, Feiyang & Wang, Chunfeng & Cui, Xin & Wu, Ji & He, Feng, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty exposure and stock price bubbles: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    28. Yumiao Wang & Dongmin Kong, 2022. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and the Energy Stock Market - Evidence From China," Energy RESEARCH LETTERS, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 3(1), pages 1-4.
    29. Zhang, Yuejia & Mayes, David Geoffrey, 2018. "The performance of governmental venture capital firms: A life cycle perspective and evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 162-185.
    30. Cumming, Douglas J. & Grilli, Luca & Murtinu, Samuele, 2017. "Governmental and independent venture capital investments in Europe: A firm-level performance analysis," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 439-459.
    31. Sabrina Howell & Josh Lerner & Ramana Nanda & Richard Townsend, 2020. "Financial Distancing: How Venture Capital Follows the Economy Down and Curtails Innovation," Harvard Business School Working Papers 20-115, Harvard Business School.
    32. Hsieh, Hui-Ching & Boarelli, Sofia & Vu, Thi Huyen Chi, 2019. "The effects of economic policy uncertainty on outward foreign direct investment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 377-392.
    33. Giot, Pierre & Schwienbacher, Armin, 2007. "IPOs, trade sales and liquidations: Modelling venture capital exits using survival analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 679-702, March.
    34. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Zhu, Yun, 2014. "Political uncertainty and bank loan contracting," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 281-286.
    35. Idriss Fontaine & Laurent Didier & Justinien Razafindravaosolonirina, 2017. "Foreign policy uncertainty shocks and US macroeconomic activity: Evidence from China," Post-Print hal-03571723, HAL.
    36. Wang, Susheng & Zhou, Hailan, 2004. "Staged financing in venture capital: moral hazard and risks," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 131-155, January.
    37. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Figueres, Juan Manuel, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty and unemployment in the United States: A nonlinear approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 31-34.
    38. Fontaine, Idriss & Didier, Laurent & Razafindravaosolonirina, Justinien, 2017. "Foreign policy uncertainty shocks and US macroeconomic activity: Evidence from China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 121-125.
    39. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C, 1996. "Investment Lags," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 610-622, June.
    40. Tran, Dung Viet & Hoang, Khanh & Nguyen, Cuong, 2021. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect bank business models?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    41. Nahata, Rajarishi & Hazarika, Sonali & Tandon, Kishore, 2014. "Success in Global Venture Capital Investing: Do Institutional and Cultural Differences Matter?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 1039-1070, August.
    42. Giglio, Stefano & Kelly, Bryan & Pruitt, Seth, 2016. "Systemic risk and the macroeconomy: An empirical evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 457-471.
    43. Devigne, David & Manigart, Sophie & Wright, Mike, 2016. "Escalation of commitment in venture capital decision making: Differentiating between domestic and international investors," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 253-271.
    44. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-157, April.
    45. Sahlman, William A., 1990. "The structure and governance of venture-capital organizations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 473-521, October.
    46. Wang, Yizhong & Wei, Yueling & Song, Frank M., 2017. "Uncertainty and corporate R&D investment: Evidence from Chinese listed firms," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 176-200.
    47. Suchard, Jo-Ann & Humphery-Jenner, Mark & Cao, Xiaping, 2021. "Government ownership and Venture Capital in China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    48. Holger Kraft & Eduardo Schwartz & Farina Weiss, 2018. "Growth options and firm valuation," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(2), pages 209-238, March.
    49. Hoang, Khanh & Nguyen, Cuong & Zhang, Hailiang, 2021. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect corporate diversification?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 254-269.
    50. Maria Boutchkova & Hitesh Doshi & Art Durnev & Alexander Molchanov, 2012. "Precarious Politics and Return Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 1111-1154.
    51. Huseyin Gulen & Mihai Ion, 2016. "Editor's Choice Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 523-564.
    52. Xu, Zhaoxia, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty, cost of capital, and corporate innovation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Casper Boongaling Agaton, 2022. "Will a Geopolitical Conflict Accelerate Energy Transition in Oil-Importing Countries? A Case Study of the Philippines from a Real Options Perspective," Resources, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-17, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    2. Drobetz, Wolfgang & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Janzen, Malte, 2018. "Policy uncertainty, investment, and the cost of capital," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 28-45.
    3. Saud Asaad Al‐Thaqeb & Barrak Ghanim Algharabali & Khaled Tareq Alabdulghafour, 2022. "The pandemic and economic policy uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 2784-2794, July.
    4. Tran, Dung Viet & Nguyen, Cuong, 2023. "Policy uncertainty and bank’s funding costs: The effects of the financial crisis, Covid-19 pandemic, and market discipline," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Ma, Huanyu & Hao, Dapeng, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty, financial development, and financial constraints: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 368-386.
    6. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Bakhsh, Satar & Zhao, Zhongxiu, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank stability: Threshold effect of institutional quality and competition," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    7. Ferguson, Andrew & Hu, Wei & Lam, Peter, 2022. "Political uncertainty and deal structure: Evidence from Australian mining project acquisitions," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    8. Nguyen, Minh Hong & Trinh, Vu Quang, 2023. "U.K. economic policy uncertainty and innovation activities: A firm-level analysis," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    9. Chen, Yanyan, 2022. "Does political turnover affect corporate investment? Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PA).
    10. Xiaoqiong Wang & Siqi Wei & Xiaoyang Zhu, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and heterogeneous institutional investor horizons," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 39-67, January.
    11. Afzali, Mansoor & Ҫolak, Gönül & Fu, Mengchuan, 2021. "Economic uncertainty and corruption: Evidence from public and private firms," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    12. Colak, Gonul & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Loukopoulos, Panagiotis & Loukopoulos, Georgios, 2021. "Political power, local policy uncertainty and IPO pricing," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    13. Duong, Huu Nhan & Nguyen, Justin Hung & Nguyen, My & Rhee, S. Ghon, 2020. "Navigating through economic policy uncertainty: The role of corporate cash holdings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    14. Frank Obenpong Kwabi & Samuel Owusu-Manu & Agyenim Boateng & Ernest-Bruno Ezeani & Min Du, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and cost of capital: the mediating effects of foreign equity portfolio flow," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 457-481, August.
    15. Cui, Xin & Wang, Chunfeng & Liao, Jing & Fang, Zhenming & Cheng, Feiyang, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty exposure and corporate innovation investment: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    16. Sha, Yezhou & Kang, Chenlei & Wang, Zilong, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and mergers and acquisitions: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 590-600.
    17. Guan, Jialin & Xu, Huijuan & Huo, Da & Hua, Yechun & Wang, Yunfeng, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate innovation: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    18. Shams, Syed & Gunaskerage, Abeyratna & Velayutham, Eswaran, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and acquisition performance: Australian evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 286-308.
    19. Tran, Quoc Trung, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and cost of debt financing: International evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    20. Ahmad, Muhammad Farooq & Aziz, Saqib & El-Khatib, Rwan & Kowalewski, Oskar, 2023. "Firm-level political risk and dividend payout," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Venture capital; Staging; Economic policy uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:78:y:2022:i:c:p:572-596. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.