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IPOs, trade sales and liquidations: modelling venture capital exits using survival analysis

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Author Info
GIOT, Pierre
SCHWIENBACHER, Armin

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Abstract

Using a detailed sample made up of more than 20,000 investment rounds, we analyze the time to 'IPO', 'trade sale' and 'liquidation' for about 6,000 venture backed firms. We model these exit times using competing risks models. Biotech and internet firms have the fastest IPO exits. Internet firms are also the fastest to liquidate, while biotech firms are however the slowest. The conditional probability for IPOs are clearly non-monotonous with respect to time. As time flows, venture capital-backed firms first exhibit an increased likelihood of exiting to an IPO. However, after having reached a plateau, investments that have not yet exited have fewer and fewer possibilities of IPO exits as time increases. The bubble period from 1998 to 2000 was an 'easy money' period where venture capitalists gave much more money to firms, many of which did not offer outstanding growth potential as they tended to liquidate much faster than in normal times.

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Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) in its series CORE Discussion Papers with number 2005013.

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Date of creation: 01 Feb 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2005013

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bascha, Andreas & Walz, Uwe, 2001. "Convertible securities and optimal exit decisions in venture capital finance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 285-306, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Laura Bottazzi & Marco da Rin, 2003. "Financing Entrepreneurial Firms in Europe: Facts, Issues, and Research Agenda," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  3. Cumming, Douglas J. & MacIntosh, Jeffrey G., 2001. "Venture capital investment duration in Canada and the United States," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(4-5), pages 445-463, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Black, Bernard S. & Gilson, Ronald J., 1998. "Venture capital and the structure of capital markets: banks versus stock markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 243-277, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Douglas Cumming, 2008. "Contracts and Exits in Venture Capital Finance," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(5), pages 1947-1982, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Jay R. Ritter & Ivo Welch, 2002. "A Review of IPO Activity, Pricing, and Allocations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1795-1828, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Kanniainen, Vesa & Keuschnigg, Christian, 2003. "The optimal portfolio of start-up firms in venture capital finance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 521-534, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Jeng, Leslie A. & Wells, Philippe C., 2000. "The determinants of venture capital funding: evidence across countries," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 241-289, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Gompers, Paul A, 1995. " Optimal Investment, Monitoring, and the Staging of Venture Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1461-89, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Barry, Christopher B. & Muscarella, Chris J. & Peavy, John III & Vetsuypens, Michael R., 1990. "The role of venture capital in the creation of public companies*1: Evidence from the going-public process," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 447-471, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Michael R. Darby & Lynne G. Zucker, 2002. "Going Public When You Can in Biotechnology," NBER Working Papers 8954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Admati, Anat R & Pfleiderer, Paul, 1994. " Robust Financial Contracting and the Role of Venture Capitalists," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 371-402, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ouidad Yousfi, 2009. "Leveraged Buy Out: Dynamic agency model with write-off option," EconomiX Working Papers 2009-13, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX. [Downloadable!]
  2. Cécile Carpentier & Jean-François L'Her & Jean-Marc Suret, 2008. "Stock Exchange Markets for New Ventures," CIRANO Working Papers 2008s-12, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  3. Pehr-Johan Norbäck & Lars Persson & Joacim Tåg, 2008. "Entrepreneurial Innovations in Network Industries," Working Papers 08-02, NET Institute, revised Sep 2008. [Downloadable!]
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