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Following public finances: The mirage of MDBs countercyclicality

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  • Avellán, Leopoldo
  • Galindo, Arturo J.
  • Lotti, Giulia

Abstract

Fiscal policy and net capital inflows in developing countries are procyclical. A large amount of literature has examined this phenomenon and explored its consequences for aggregate fluctuations. Multilateral development banks (MDBs) are an important source of external finance for governments and play a key role in financing the execution of fiscal policy. Hence, understanding the behavior of MDB flows is key to gauge their contribution to macroeconomic volatility. This paper investigates the co-movement of sovereign lending from MDBs and private creditors with government expenditure, and finds that multilateral sovereign lending follows government expenditure, and that this correlation does not change if the government is running a surplus or a deficit. This finding raises doubts on the feasibility of MDBs to be counter-cyclical, unless the governments themselves implement counter-cyclical fiscal policies.

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  • Avellán, Leopoldo & Galindo, Arturo J. & Lotti, Giulia, 2022. "Following public finances: The mirage of MDBs countercyclicality," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 372-385.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:84:y:2022:i:c:p:372-385
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2020.08.001
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    1. Avellán, Leopoldo & Galindo, Arturo J. & Lotti, Giulia, 2021. "Sovereign external borrowing and multilateral lending in crises," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 206-238.
    2. Fleiss, Pablo, 2021. "Multilateral development banks in Latin America: Recent trends, the response to the pandemic, and the forthcoming role," Studies and Perspectives – ECLAC Office in Washington 46916, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International government debt; Capital flows; Counter-cyclicality; Multilateral development banks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations

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