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Procyclicality of fiscal policy in European Union countries

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  • Gootjes, Bram
  • de Haan, Jakob

Abstract

Using real-time data, we examine whether fiscal policy has been counter- or procyclical in a panel of 27 European Union (EU) member states over the period 2000–2015. We also investigate whether fiscal rules and government efficiency improve the cyclical reaction of fiscal policy. Our results suggest that even though fiscal plans in EU countries have an acyclical stance, budgetary outcomes are procyclical. Government efficiency and fiscal rules seem to reduce fiscal procyclicality. Further analysis also reveals that fiscal policy seems to be more procyclical in non-euro area countries and in times of economic prosperity.

Suggested Citation

  • Gootjes, Bram & de Haan, Jakob, 2022. "Procyclicality of fiscal policy in European Union countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:120:y:2022:i:c:s0261560620302321
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102276
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    10. Larch, Martin & Claeys, Peter & Van Der Wielen, Wouter, 2022. "The scarring effects of major economic downturns: The role of fiscal policy and government investment," EIB Working Papers 2022/14, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    11. Luis Ayala-Cañón & María Jesús Delgado-Rodríguez & Sonia De Lucas-Santos, 2022. "Synchronization and cyclicality of social spending in economic crises," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1153-1187, November.
    12. Căpraru, Bogdan & Georgescu, George & Sprincean, Nicu, 2022. "Do independent fiscal institutions cause better fiscal outcomes in the European Union?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
    13. Julia del Amo Valor & Marcos Martín Mateos & Diego Martínez López & Javier J. Pérez, 2023. "Is the European economic governance framework too “complex”? A critical discussion," Working Papers 2023-06, FEDEA.
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    15. Alessandro Caiani & Ermanno Catullo, 2023. "Fiscal Transfers and Common Debt in a Monetary Union: A Multi-Country Agent Based-Stock Flow Consistent Model," LEM Papers Series 2023/19, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    16. Thiombiano, Noel & Ouedraogo, Salifou & Moussa, Abiboulaye, 2022. "Fiscal policy rules and economic fluctuations in the countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU)," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 252-263.
    17. Valentin Marian Antohi & Romeo Victor Ionescu & Marius Sorin Dinca & Monica Laura Zlati & Costinela Fortea, 2023. "Dynamics of the Social Security Index in the Context of the Economic Crisis in Romania," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-17, February.
    18. Mikhail E. Kosov & Alla Yu. Chalova & Ravil G. Akhmadeev & Ekaterina V. Golubtsova, 2023. "Federal Budget and State Fiscal Policy: Macroeconomic Adaptation until 2025," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 2, pages 8-26, April.
    19. Chrysanthakopoulos, Christos & Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2023. "Fiscal rules and tax policy cyclicality," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
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    21. Andrian, Leandro Gaston & Valencia, Oscar & Hirs, Jorge & Urrea Rios, Ivan Leonardo, 2022. "Fiscal Rules and Economic Cycles: Quality (Always) Matters," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12639, Inter-American Development Bank.
    22. Pejman Peykani & Mostafa Sargolzaei & Amir Takaloo & Shahla Valizadeh, 2023. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Macroeconomic Variables through Credit and Balance Sheet Channels: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-21, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Procyclicality; Fiscal rules; Government efficiency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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