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Do fiscal rules constrain political budget cycles?

Author

Listed:
  • Bram Gootjes

    (University of Groningen)

  • Jakob Haan

    (University of Groningen
    De Nederlandsche Bank
    CESifo)

  • Richard Jong-A-Pin

    (University of Groningen
    CESifo)

Abstract

We ask whether fiscal rules constrain incumbents from using fiscal policy tools for reelection purposes. Using data on fiscal rules provided by the IMF for a sample of 77 (advanced and developing) countries over the 1984–2015 period, we find that strong fiscal rules dampen political budget cycles. Our results are remarkably robust against inclusion of media freedom and the level of government debt as explanatory variables. Furthermore, we find a strong effect of fiscal rules in, amongst others, countries with fewer veto players, left-wing governments, established democracies, and more globalized economies. In addition, the effect of fiscal rules on political budget cycles seems to be stronger after the global financial crisis, reflecting post-crisis expansion in the number of countries with strong fiscal rules, notably in the European Union.

Suggested Citation

  • Bram Gootjes & Jakob Haan & Richard Jong-A-Pin, 2021. "Do fiscal rules constrain political budget cycles?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 188(1), pages 1-30, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:188:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11127-020-00797-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-020-00797-3
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    4. Philipp Heimberger, 2022. "The Cyclical Behaviour of Fiscal Policy During the Covid-19 Crisis," wiiw Working Papers 220, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
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    8. Heimberger, Philipp, 2023. "This time truly is different: The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy during the Covid-19 crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    9. Ablam Estel APETI & Bao-We-Wal BAMBE & Jean Louis COMBES, 2022. "On the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Reforms : Fiscal Rules and Public Expenditure Efficiency," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2985, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    10. Căpraru, Bogdan & Georgescu, George & Sprincean, Nicu, 2022. "Do independent fiscal institutions cause better fiscal outcomes in the European Union?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
    11. Carnazza, Giovanni & Renström, Thomas I. & Spataro, Luca, 2023. "Is public debt environmentally friendly? The role of EU fiscal rules on environmental quality: An empirical assessment," FEEM Working Papers 339126, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    12. Mahambare, Vidya & Dhanaraj, Sowmya & Mittal, Pragati, 2022. "The political budget cycles in the presence of a fiscal rule: The case of farm debt waivers in India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 701-721.
    13. Niklas Potrafke, 2023. "The Economic Consequences of Fiscal Rules," CESifo Working Paper Series 10765, CESifo.
    14. Jonatan Lautenschlage, 2022. "The Influence of Mayors’ Characteristics and Elections on the Composition of Brazilian Municipalities’ Expenditures," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 14(10), pages 1-23, October.
    15. Kyriaki Efthalitsidou & Eleni Zafeiriou & Konstantinos Spinthiropoulos & Ioannis Betsas & Nikolaos Sariannidis, 2021. "GDP and Public Expenditure in Education, Health, and Defense. Empirical Research for Greece," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(18), pages 1-17, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political budget cycles; Fiscal policy; Fiscal rules;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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