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What factors appear to drive private capital flows to developing countries? and how does official lending respond?

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Author Info

  • Dasgupta, Dipak
  • Ratha, Dilip

Abstract

The authors study what drives private capital flows to developing countries, as well as the apparent response of official lending for the years 1978-97. Econometric results reveal that non-foreign direct investment portfolio flows to a country tended to rise in response to: 1) An increase in the current account deficit. 2) A rise in foreign direct investment flows. 3) Higher per capita income. 4) Growth performance. Once those variables were accounted for, private flows did not seem to be influenced by location, and regional factors. In addition, private capital flows (whether foreign direct investment or not) seem to respond positively (with a one-year lag) to World Bank lending commitments. By far the most important determinant of official lending to a developing country, seems to be the external current account balance, or a change in international reserves in the country. Official flows - including World Bank lending - appear to have played a stabilizing (or counter-cyclical) role in response to the volatility of private capital flows, and fluctuations in commodity prices, and GDP growth. (The stabilizing effect is weak, as official flows are only one-tenth of total long-term flows).

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 2392.

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Date of creation: 31 Jul 2000
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2392

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Related research

Keywords: International Terrorism&Counterterrorism; Banks&Banking Reform; Economic Adjustment and Lending; Economic Theory&Research; Financial Intermediation; Economic Theory&Research; Financial Intermediation; Banks&Banking Reform; Macroeconomic Management; Achieving Shared Growth;

References

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  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  3. Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen Reinhart & Guillermo Calvo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 92/62, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Dani Rodrik, 1995. "Why is there Multilateral Lending?," NBER Working Papers 5160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Chuhan, Punam & Claessens, Stijn & Mamingi, Nlandu, 1998. "Equity and bond flows to Latin America and Asia: the role of global and country factors," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 439-463, April.
  6. Reinhart, Carmen & Montiel, Peter, 2001. "The Dynamics of Capital Movements to Emerging Economies During the 1990s," MPRA Paper 7577, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Alice Y. Ouyang & Ramkishen S. Rajan & Thomas D. Willett, 2007. "China as a Reserve Sink: The Evidence from Offset and Sterilization Coefficients," Working Papers 102007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  2. Kinda, Tidiane, 2008. "Les déterminants des flux de capitaux privés dans l’UMOA: Une approche empirique sur données de panel
    [The determinants of private capital inflows in WAEMU: A panel data approach]
    ," MPRA Paper 19159, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. James Laurenceson & Kam Ki Tang, . "Estimating China�s de-facto capital account convertibility," EAERG Discussion Paper Series 0205, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  4. Cavoli, Tony & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2009. "Managing Risks in a Volatile Environment: The Capital Inflows Problem in Asia," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 62(3), pages 325-340.
  5. Rogelio V. Mercado & Cyn-Young Park, 2011. "What Drives Different Types of Capital Flows and their Volatilities in Developing Asia?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 655-680, December.
  6. Carlos Andrés Amaya & Peter Rowland, . "Determinants of Investment Flows into Emerging Markets," Borradores de Economia 313, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  7. Korap, Levent, 2010. "Identification of ‘pull’ & ‘push’ factors for the portfolio flows: SVAR evidence from the Turkish economy," MPRA Paper 24275, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Ratha, Dilip, 2001. "Complementarity between multilateral lending and private flows to developing countries : some empirical results," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2746, The World Bank.
  9. Diego Bastourre & Jorge Carrera & Javier Ibarlucia & Mariano Sardi, 2012. "Common Drivers in Emerging Market Spreads and Commodity Prices," BCRA Working Paper Series 201257, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
  10. Abalkina, Anna & Libman, Alexander & Yu, Xiofan, 2013. "Development Finance in the BRIC Countries," MPRA Paper 54375, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Kinda, Tidiane, 2007. "Increasing private capital flows to developing countries: The role of physical and financial infrastructure," MPRA Paper 19163, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Ferro, Gustavo & Antón Rodríguez, Martín, 2006. "Foreign direct investment. A bid for progress?," MPRA Paper 15093, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2008.
  13. Javier Díaz-Cassou & Alicia García-Herrero & Luis Molina, 2006. "What kind of capital flows does the IMF catalyze and when?," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0617, Banco de Espa�a.
  14. Levent, Korap & Özgür, Aslan, 2007. "Exogenous characteristics of short-term capital flows: can they be under control? evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 19504, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Ratha, Dilip, 2001. "Demand for World Bank lending," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2652, The World Bank.
  16. Ali Askin Culha, 2006. "A Structural VAR Analysis of the Determinants of Capital Flows into Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 6(2), pages 11-35.
  17. Jean-Michel Severino & Pierre Jacquet, 2004. "Prêter, donner : comment aider ?," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 74(1), pages 285-317.
  18. Serge Jeanneau & Marian Micu, 2002. "Determinants of international bank lending to emerging market countries," BIS Working Papers 112, Bank for International Settlements.
  19. Ali Askin Culha, 2006. "A Structural VAR Analysis of the Determinants of Capital Flows Into Turkey," Working Papers 0605, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  20. James Laurenceson & Kam Ki Tang, . "China's capital account convertibility and financial stability," EAERG Discussion Paper Series 0505, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.

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