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When the minimum wage really bites hard: The negative spillover effect on high-skilled workers

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  • Gregory, Terry
  • Zierahn, Ulrich

Abstract

Minimum wage levels are rising around the globe. To shed more light on the possible unintended side effects of higher wage floors, we study the impact of a minimum wage introduction on wages and employment in a quasi-experimental setting where the minimum wage is set extraordinarily high during an economic downturn. We identify treatment effects along different wage and skill groups and find positive wage and employment spillover effects for medium-skilled workers with salaries just above the minimum wage. More striking, we find negative wage and employment effects for high-skilled workers who are further up the wage distribution, followed by reduced returns to skills and industry skill supply. We explain these adjustments with a substitution-scale model that predicts negative spillover effects whenever labor-labor substitutions toward high-skilled workers are overcompensated by an overall decline in industry employment. Even though we focus on a specialized industry, we lay out the general conditions under which such unfavorable adjustments may occur in other contexts.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory, Terry & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2022. "When the minimum wage really bites hard: The negative spillover effect on high-skilled workers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:206:y:2022:i:c:s0047272721002188
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2021.104582
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    3. Demir, Gökay, 2023. "Labor Market Frictions and Spillover Effects from Publicly Announced Sectoral Minimum Wages," IZA Discussion Papers 16204, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Andrew J. Seltzer, 2024. "The Political Economy of Minimum Wage Setting: The Factories and Shops Act of Victoria (Australia), 1896-1913," CEH Discussion Papers 02, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    5. Sebastian Fossati & Joseph Marchand, 2024. "First to $15: Alberta’s Minimum Wage Policy on Employment by Wages, Ages, and Places," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 77(1), pages 119-142, January.
    6. Seltzer, Andrew, 2024. "The Political Economy of Minimum Wage Setting: The Factories and Shops Act of Victoria (Australia), 1896-1913," IZA Discussion Papers 16788, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Demir, Gökay, 2022. "Labor market frictions and spillover effects from publicly announced sectoral minimum wages," Ruhr Economic Papers 985, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    8. Garcia-Louzao, Jose & Tarasonis, Linas, 2023. "Wage and Employment Impact of Minimum Wage: Evidence from Lithuania," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 592-609.
    9. Ganserer, Angelika & Gregory, Terry & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2022. "Minimum Wages and the Rise in Solo Self-Employment," IZA Discussion Papers 15283, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Wanglin Ma & Huanguang Qiu & Dil Bahadur Rahut, 2023. "Rural development in the digital age: Does information and communication technology adoption contribute to credit access and income growth in rural China?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 1421-1444, August.
    11. Fanfani, Bernardo, 2023. "The employment effects of collective wage bargaining," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    12. Kim, Ji Hwan & Lee, Jungmin & Lee, Kyungho, 2023. "Minimum wage, social insurance mandate, and working hours," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
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    14. Roupakias, Stelios, 2022. "Employment and distributional effects of Greece’s national minimum wage," MPRA Paper 114244, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Minimum wages; Wage effects; Spillover effects; Returns to skills; Unconditional quantile regression; Scale effect; Substitution effect; Skill supply; Labor-labor substitution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand

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