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Minimum Wage Effects in the Longer Run

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Author Info
David Neumark
Olena Nizalova

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Abstract

Exposure to minimum wages at young ages may lead to longer-run effects. Among the possible adverse longer-run effects are decreased labor market experience and accumulation of tenure, lower current labor supply because of lower wages, and diminished training and skill acquisition. Beneficial longer-run effects could arise if minimum wages increase skill acquisition, or if short-term wage increases are long-lasting. We estimate the longer-run effects of minimum wages by using information on the minimum wage history that workers have faced since potentially entering the labor market. The evidence indicates that even as individuals reach their late 20's, they work less and earn less the longer they were exposed to a higher minimum wage, especially as a teenager. The adverse longer-run effects of facing high minimum wages as a teenager are stronger for blacks. From a policy perspective, these longer-run effects of minimum wages are likely more significant than the contemporaneous effects of minimum wages on youths that are the focus of most research and policy debate.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10656.

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Date of creation: Jul 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10656

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Brown, Charles & Gilroy, Curtis & Kohen, Andrew, 1982. "The Effect of the Minimum Wage on Employment and Unemployment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 487-528, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. David Neumark & William Wascher, 1995. "The Effects of Minimum Wages on Teenage Employment and Enrollment: Evidence from Matched CPS Surveys," NBER Working Papers 5092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Clark, Melissa A. & Jaeger, David A., 2002. "Natives, the Foreign-Born and High School Equivalents: New Evidence on the Returns to the GED," IZA Discussion Papers 477, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Linneman, Peter, 1982. "The Economic Impacts of Minimum Wage Laws: A New Look at an Old Question," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(3), pages 443-69, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Edward M. Gramlich, 1976. "Impact of Minimum Wages on Other Wages, Employment, and Family Incomes," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(1976-2), pages 409-462. [Downloadable!]
  8. Behrman, Jere R & Sickles, Robin C & Taubman, Paul, 1983. "The Impact of Minimum Wages on the Distributions of Earnings for Major Race-Sex Groups: A Dynamic Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 766-78, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Neumark, David & Wascher, William, 2001. "Minimum Wages and Training Revisited," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(3), pages 563-95, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Jaeger, David A, 1997. "Reconciling the Old and New Census Bureau Education Questions: Recommendations for Researchers," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 300-309, July.
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  14. Hashimoto, Masanori, 1982. "Minimum Wage Effects on Training on the Job," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(5), pages 1070-87, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Oettinger, Gerald S, 1996. "Statistical Discrimination and the Early Career Evolution of the Black-White Wage Gap," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 52-78, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Neumark, David & Wascher, William, 2003. "Minimum wages and skill acquisition: another look at schooling effects," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-10, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Chressanthis, George A & Grimes, Paul W, 1990. "Criminal Behaviour and Youth in the Labour Market: The Case of the Pernicious Minimum Wage," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 22(11), pages 1495-1508, November.
  18. Grogger, Jeff, 1998. "Market Wages and Youth Crime," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(4), pages 756-91, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. David Fairris & Roberto Pedace, 2003. "The Impact of Minimum Wages on Job Training: An Empirical Exploration with Establishment Data," Working Papers 03-04, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  20. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2002. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?," NBER Working Papers 8841, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  21. Baker, Michael & Benjamin, Dwayne & Stanger, Shuchita, 1999. "The Highs and Lows of the Minimum Wage Effect: A Time-Series Cross-Section Study of the Canadian Law," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(2), pages 318-50, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Burkhauser, Richard V & Couch, Kenneth A & Wittenburg, David C, 2000. "A Reassessment of the New Economics of the Minimum Wage Literature with Monthly Data from the Current Population Survey," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(4), pages 653-80, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Melanie K. Jones & Richard J. Jones & Philip D. Murphy & Peter J. Sloane, 2005. "The Dynamics of the National Minimum Wage: Transitions Between Different Labour Market States," IZA Discussion Papers 1690, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  2. Oguzhan C. Dincer & Peter J. Lambert, 2006. "Taking care of your own: Ethnic and religious heterogeneity and income inequality," Working Papers 48, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality. [Downloadable!]
  3. Steven J. Davis & Luis Rivera-Batiz, 2005. "The Climate for Business Development and Employment Growth in Puerto Rico," NBER Working Papers 11679, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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