Dynamics of mergers, bifurcation and chaos: A new framework
AbstractThis paper is motivated by a gap in the existing literature on mergers since no attempt has been successfully made to consider endogenous multiple mergers that trigger reciprocal mergers, which in turn fuel further mergers and the process continues ad infinitum. The precise contribution of this paper is to model endogenous mergers such that groups of firms simultaneously decide whether to merge, or not, when their rivals decide to merge. We call this type of mergers endogenously-driven-reciprocal (EDR) mergers. We develop a framework to examine endogenously-driven-reciprocal mergers to establish that fluctuations in merger activities can be explained in a purely endogenous manner, without resorting to any ad hoc stochastic specifications. Our principal finding therefore is that complicated random looking sequences of mergers and merger waves might even prevail in deterministic models, under a reasonable condition. We then extend the model to include U-shaped cost functions and non-pecuniary goals of managers to establish the existence of multiple merger equilibria, which can cause a serious indeterminacy, historical lock-in and path dependency in the context of endogenously-driven-reciprocal mergers. We further show how multiplicity of merger equilibrium and bifurcations of these equilibria can lend fragility to the industrial system.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications.
Volume (Year): 403 (2014)
Issue (Month): C ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/
Reciprocal mergers; Endogenous mergers; Multiple Nash equilibria; Chaos; Bifurcation; Extremal equilibria;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Yeon-Koo Che & Wouter Dessein & Navin Kartik, 2010.
"Pandering to Persuade,"
661465000000000163, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Klaus Gugler & Dennis C. Mueller & B. Burcin Yurtoglu & Christine Zulehner, 2001.
"The Effects of Mergers: An International Comparison,"
CIG Working Papers
FS IV 01-21, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
- Gugler, Klaus & Mueller, Dennis C. & Yurtoglu, B. Burcin & Zulehner, Christine, 2003. "The effects of mergers: an international comparison," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 625-653, May.
- Damien J. Neven & Lars-Hendrik Röller, 2000.
"Consumer Surplus vs. Welfare Standard in a Political Economy Model of Merger Control,"
CIG Working Papers
FS IV 00-15, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
- Neven, Damien J. & Roller, Lars-Hendrik, 2005. "Consumer surplus vs. welfare standard in a political economy model of merger control," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 829-848, December.
- Neven, Damien J & Röller, Lars-Hendrik, 2000. "Consumer Surplus vs. Welfare Standard in a Political Economy Model of Merger Control," CEPR Discussion Papers 2620, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Damien J. NEVEN & Lars-Hendrik RÖLLER, 2000. "Consumer Surplus vs. Welfare Standard in a Political Economy Model of Merger Control," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du DÃ©partement d'EconomÃ©trie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 00.24, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
- Armstrong, Mark & Vickers, John, 2008.
"A model of delegated project choice,"
8963, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Nilssen, T. & Sorgard, L., 1995.
"Sequential Horizontal Mergers,"
30/1995, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- J. Barkley Rosser, 1999. "On the Complexities of Complex Economic Dynamics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 169-192, Fall.
- William A. Brock, 1993.
"Pathways to randomness in the economy: Emergent nonlinearity and chaos in economics and finance,"
El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 8(1), pages 3-55.
- W. A. Brock, 1993. "Pathways to Randomness in the Economy: Emergent Nonlinearity and Chaos in Economics and Finance," Working Papers 93-02-006, Santa Fe Institute.
- Melicher, Ronald W & Ledolter, Johannes & D'Antonio, Louis J, 1983. "A Time Series Analysis of Aggregate Merger Activity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 423-30, August.
- Nocke, Volker & Whinston, Michael, 2008.
"Dynamic Merger Review,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7077, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Yagil, Joseph, 1996. "Mergers and macro-economic factors," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-190.
- Gaudet, G. & Salant, S., 1989.
"Towards A Theory Of Horizontal Mergers,"
89-24, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
- Raphael Thomadsen & Ki-Eun Rhee, 2007. "Costly Collusion in Differentiated Industries," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(5), pages 660-665, 09-10.
- Benhabib, Jess & Day, Richard H., 1980. "Erratic accumulation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 113-117.
- Straume, Odd Rune, 2003. "International mergers and trade liberalisation: implications for unionised labour," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 717-735, May.
- Krugman, Paul, 1991. "History versus Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 651-67, May.
- Besanko, David & Spulber, Daniel F, 1993. "Contested Mergers and Equilibrium Antitrust Policy," Journal of Law, Economics and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 1-29, April.
- Vives, X., 1988.
"Nash Equilibrium With Strategic Complementarities,"
UFAE and IAE Working Papers
107-88, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
- Larry D. Qiu & Wen Zhou, 2007. "Merger waves: a model of endogenous mergers," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 38(1), pages 214-226, 03.
- Amir, Rabah & Diamantoudi, Effrosyni & Xue, Licun, 2009.
"Merger performance under uncertain efficiency gains,"
International Journal of Industrial Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 264-273, March.
- AMIR, Rabah & DIAMANTOUDI, Effrosyni & XUE, Licun, 2008. "Merger Performance under Uncertain Efficiency Gains," Cahiers de recherche 09-2008, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- AMIR, Rabah & DIAMANTOUDI, Effrosyni & XUE, Licun, 2003. "Merger performance under uncertain efficiency gains," CORE Discussion Papers 2003038, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Rabah Amir & Effrosyni Diamantoudi & Licun Xue, 2006. "Merger Performance Under Uncertain Efficiency Gains," Departmental Working Papers 2005-07, McGill University, Department of Economics.
- Licun Xue & Rabah Amir & Effrosyni Diamantoudi, 2004. "Merger Performance under Uncertain Efficiency Gains," Working Papers 2004.79, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Mattias Ganslandt & Lars Persson & Helder Vasconcelos, 2012. "Endogenous Mergers and Collusion in Asymmetric Market Structures," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 79(316), pages 766-791, October.
- William F. Shughart II & Robert D. Tollison, 1984. "The Random Character of Merger Activity," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 15(4), pages 500-509, Winter.
- Horn, Henrik & Persson, Lars, 1996.
"Endogenous Mergers in Concentrated Markets,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1544, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marshall, Alfred, 1890. "The Principles of Economics," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, number marshall1890.
- Dana, Rose-Anne & Montrucchio, Luigi, 1986. "Dynamic complexity in duopoly games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 40-56, October.
- Banal-Estanol, Albert & Macho-Stadler, Ines & Seldeslachts, Jo, 2008. "Endogenous mergers and endogenous efficiency gains: The efficiency defence revisited," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 69-91, January.
- Rand, David, 1978. "Exotic phenomena in games and duopoly models," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 173-184, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.