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Merger Performance Under Uncertain Efficiency Gains

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  • Rabah Amir

    ()

  • Effrosyni Diamantoudi

    ()

  • Licun Xue

    ()

Abstract

In view of the uncertainty over the ability of merging firms to achieve efficiency gains, we model the post-merger situation as a Cournot oligopoly wherein the outsiders face uncertainty about the merged entity’s final cost. At > the Bayesian equilibrium, a bilateral merger is profitable provided the non-merged firms sufficiently believe that the merger will generate large enough efficiency gains, even if ex post none actually materialize. The effects of the merger on market performance are shown to follow similar threshold rules. The findings are broadly consistent with stylized facts. An extensive welfare analysis is conducted, bringing out the key role of effciency gains and the different implications of consumer and social welfare standards.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by McGill University, Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 2005-07.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mcl:mclwop:2005-07

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References

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  1. Rabah Amir, 2000. "On the Effects of Entry in Cournot Markets," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1475, Econometric Society.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jovanovic, Dragan & Wey, Christian, 2012. "An equilibrium analysis of efficiency gains from mergers," DICE Discussion Papers 64, Heinrich‐Heine‐Universität Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
  2. Emilie Dargaud, 2013. "Horizontal mergers, efficiency gains and remedies," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 349-372, October.
  3. Albert Banal & Ines Macho-Stadler & Jo Seldeslachts, 2003. "Mergers, Investment Decisions and Internal Organisation," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 569.03, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
  4. Joseph A. Clougherty & Tomaso Duso, 2010. "Using Rival Effects to Identify Synergies and Improve Merger Typologies," CIG Working Papers SP II 2010-13, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG).
  5. Konrad, Kai A., 2010. "Merger profitability in industries with brand portfolios and loyal customers," Discussion Papers, Research Professorship & Project "The Future of Fiscal Federalism" SP II 2010-08, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
  6. Philippe Choné & Laurent Linnemer, 2006. "Assessing Horizontal Mergers under Uncertain Efficiency Gains," CESifo Working Paper Series 1726, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Mariana Cunha & Paula Sarmento & Hélder Vasconcelos, 2014. "Uncertain Efficiency Gains and Merger Policy," FEP Working Papers 527, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  8. Huck, S. & Konrad, K.A. & Müller, W., 2005. "Merger Without Costs Advantage," Discussion Paper 2005-019, Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economic Center.
  9. Le Pape, Nicolas & Zhao, Kai, 2013. "Horizontal mergers and uncertainty," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-62, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  10. Sergio Currarini & Marco Marini, 2011. "Coalitional Approaches to Collusive Agreements in Oligopoly Games," Working Papers 1113, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics - Scientific Committee - L. Stefanini & G. Travaglini, revised 2011.
  11. Ding, Wei & Fan, Cuihong & Wolfstetter, Elmar G., 2013. "Horizontal mergers with synergies: Cash vs. profit-share auctions," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 382-391.
  12. Bilotkach, Volodymyr & Hüschelrath, Kai, 2012. "Airline alliances and antitrust policy: The role of efficiencies," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 76-84.
  13. Banal-Estanol, Albert & Macho-Stadler, Ines & Seldeslachts, Jo, 2008. "Endogenous mergers and endogenous efficiency gains: The efficiency defence revisited," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 69-91, January.
  14. Berardino Cesi, 2010. "Horizontal Mergers: A Solution Of The Insiders' Dilemma," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(2), pages 171-180, 04.
  15. Borla, Stefania, 2012. "Spatial competition and merging incentives when firms produce complements," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 221-229.
  16. Gangopadhyay, Partha, 2014. "Dynamics of mergers, bifurcation and chaos: A new framework," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 403(C), pages 293-307.

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