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On the Complexities of Complex Economic Dynamics

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  • J. Barkley Rosser

Abstract

Complex economic nonlinear dynamics endogenously do not converge to a point, a limit cycle, or an explosion. Their study developed out of earlier studies of cybernetic, catastrophic, and chaotic systems. Complexity analysis stresses interactions among dispersed agents without a global controller, tangled hierarchies, adaptive learning, evolution, and novelty, and out-of-equilibrium dynamics. Complexity methods include interacting particle systems, self-organized criticality, and evolutionary game theory, to simulate artificial stock markets and other phenomena. Theoretically, bounded rationality replaces rational expectations. Complexity theory influences empirical methods and restructures policy debates.

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File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jep.13.4.169
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal Journal of Economic Perspectives.

Volume (Year): 13 (1999)
Issue (Month): 4 (Fall)
Pages: 169-192

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Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:13:y:1999:i:4:p:169-192

Note: DOI: 10.1257/jep.13.4.169
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  1. Whang, Yoon-Jae & Linton, Oliver, 1999. "The asymptotic distribution of nonparametric estimates of the Lyapunov exponent for stochastic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 1-42, July.
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  6. Sorger, Gerhard, 1998. "Imperfect foresight and chaos: an example of a self-fulfilling mistake," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 363-383, January.
  7. George J. Mailath, . ""Do People Play Nash Equilibrium? Lessons From Evolutionary Game Theory''," CARESS Working Papres 98-01, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
  8. Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1997. "Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems," Working Papers 97-27, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  9. Rosser, J Barkley, Jr, 1990. "Chaos Theory and the New Keynesian Economics," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 58(3), pages 265-91, September.
  10. James Stodder, 1997. "Complexity Aversion: Simplification in the Herrnstein and Allais Behaviors," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 1-15, Winter.
  11. Brock, W.A. & Durlauf, S.N., 1995. "Discrete Choice with Social Interactions I: Theory," Working papers 9521, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  12. J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. & Marina Vcherashnaya Rosser, 1997. "Complex Dynamics and Systemic Change: How Things Can Go Very Wrong," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 20(1), pages 103-122, October.
  13. Joshua M. Epstein & Robert L. Axtell, 1996. "Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262550253, December.
  14. John Conlisk, 1996. "Why Bounded Rationality?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 669-700, June.
  15. Baak, Saang Joon, 1999. "Tests for bounded rationality with a linear dynamic model distorted by heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1517-1543, September.
  16. Bask, Mikael, 1998. "Essays on Exchange Rates: Deterministic Chaos and Technical Analysis," UmeÃ¥ Economic Studies 465, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
  17. Michael Kopel, 1997. "Improving the performance of an economic system: Controlling chaos," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 269-289.
  18. Guesnerie, Roger, 1993. "Successes and failures in coordinating expectations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 243-268, April.
  19. J. Barkley Rosser Jr., 1998. "original: Coordination and bifurcation in growing spatial economies," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 133-143.
  20. Kaas, Leo, 1998. "Stabilizing chaos in a dynamic macroeconomic model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 313-332, January.
  21. Paul Davidson, 1996. "Reality and Economic Theory," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 18(4), pages 479-508, July.
  22. Kollman, Ken & Miller, John H & Page, Scott E, 1997. "Political Institutions and Sorting in a Tiebout Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 977-92, December.
  23. George J. Mailath, 1998. "Corrigenda [Do People Play Nash Equilibrium? Lessons from Evolutionary Game Theory]," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 1941-1941, December.
  24. Weidlich, Wolfgang & Braun, Martin, 1992. "The Master Equation Approach to Nonlinear Economics," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 233-65, October.
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