IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jotrge/v43y2015icp1-13.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Nicaragua Canal: scenarios of its future roles

Author

Listed:
  • Yip, Tsz Leung
  • Wong, Mei Chi

Abstract

Connections between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans are vital for international trade. Since 1914, the Panama Canal has provided ships with a direct interoceanic canal for crossing the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The geographical advantage of the Panama Canal allows it to enjoy an exclusive position in international seaborne trade. Passage demand through the canal has increased continuously since its opening, with about 12,000 vessels travelling through it in 2013. However, the Panama Canal’s monopoly in interoceanic canal operations may soon come to an end. In 2012, a memorandum of understanding was signed between the Nicaraguan Government and a Chinese investor to construct the Nicaragua Canal, which will be built about 400 nautical miles from the Panama Canal. It is expected that the Nicaragua Canal will be operational by 2020. The proposed canal will not only provide an alternative route for vessels to pass between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, but will also trigger dynamic changes in seaborne trade patterns. To assess the long-term benefits of the proposed canal, we use a scenario planning method in this study to provide a framework for constructing several scenarios for 2030, 10years after the anticipated construction of the canal. To develop the scenarios, we consider three macroscale drivers, namely politics, economics, and environment, and the causal relationships between them. Combinations of pairs of drivers are used to generate dominant scenarios to anticipate the role of the Nicaragua Canal with respect to future international trade. The analysis presented in this study will provide transport geographers and other major stakeholders with alternative mindsets into the future spatial changes in and development of maritime transport.

Suggested Citation

  • Yip, Tsz Leung & Wong, Mei Chi, 2015. "The Nicaragua Canal: scenarios of its future roles," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-13.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:43:y:2015:i:c:p:1-13
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2015.01.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692315000046
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2015.01.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gustavsson, L. & Holmberg, J. & Dornburg, V. & Sathre, R. & Eggers, T. & Mahapatra, K. & Marland, G., 2007. "Using biomass for climate change mitigation and oil use reduction," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5671-5691, November.
    2. Lei Fan & William W. Wilson & Bruce Dahl, 2012. "Impacts of new routes and ports on spatial competition for containerized imports into the United States," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(5), pages 479-501, September.
    3. Weber, Christopher L. & Peters, Glen P. & Guan, Dabo & Hubacek, Klaus, 2008. "The contribution of Chinese exports to climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3572-3577, September.
    4. Mallidis, Ioannis & Dekker, Rommert & Vlachos, Dimitrios, 2012. "The impact of greening on supply chain design and cost: a case for a developing region," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 118-128.
    5. Verny, Jerome & Grigentin, Christophe, 2009. "Container shipping on the Northern Sea Route," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 107-117, November.
    6. Jenkins, Rhys & Peters, Enrique Dussel & Moreira, Mauricio Mesquita, 2008. "The Impact of China on Latin America and the Caribbean," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 235-253, February.
    7. Lindstad, Haakon & Jullumstrø, Egil & Sandaas, Inge, 2013. "Reductions in cost and greenhouse gas emissions with new bulk ship designs enabled by the Panama Canal expansion," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 341-349.
    8. Kjetil Fagerholt *, 2004. "Designing optimal routes in a liner shipping problem," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 259-268, October.
    9. Imai, Akio & Nishimura, Etsuko & Papadimitriou, Stratos & Liu, Miaojia, 2006. "The economic viability of container mega-ships," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 21-41, January.
    10. Suárez de Vivero, Juan L. & Rodríguez Mateos, Juan C., 2010. "Ocean governance in a competitive world. The BRIC countries as emerging maritime powers--building new geopolitical scenarios," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 967-978, September.
    11. Karst Geurs & Hans Nijland & Bas Ruijven, 2011. "Getting into the Right Lane for Low-Carbon Transport in the EU," Transportation Research, Economics and Policy, in: Werner Rothengatter & Yoshitsugu Hayashi & Wolfgang Schade (ed.), Transport Moving to Climate Intelligence, chapter 0, pages 53-72, Springer.
    12. DeCanio, Stephen J. & Fremstad, Anders, 2011. "Economic feasibility of the path to zero net carbon emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1144-1153, March.
    13. Jérôme Verny & Christophe Grigentin, 2009. "Container shipping on the Northern Sea Route," Post-Print hal-00568193, HAL.
    14. E. Sambracos, 2003. "Market analysis and pricing policies for sea canals: the case of the Greek Corinth Canal," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 175-190, January.
    15. Jänicke, Martin, 2012. "“Green growth”: From a growing eco-industry to economic sustainability," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 13-21.
    16. Peter B. Marlow & Bernard M. Gardner, 2006. "The marine electronic highway in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore—an assessment of costs and key benefits," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 187-202, May.
    17. Fletcher, Max E., 1958. "The Suez Canal and World Shipping, 1869-1914," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(4), pages 556-573, December.
    18. Lei Fan & William W Wilson & Denver Tolliver, 2009. "Logistical rivalries and port competition for container flows to US markets: Impacts of changes in Canada's logistics system and expansion of the Panama Canal," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 11(4), pages 327-357, December.
    19. Lewis, Joanna I., 2010. "The evolving role of carbon finance in promoting renewable energy development in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 2875-2886, June.
    20. Notteboom, Theo E., 2012. "Towards a new intermediate hub region in container shipping? Relay and interlining via the Cape route vs. the Suez route," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 164-178.
    21. Barbara Kotschwar, 2014. "China's Economic Influence in Latin America," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 9(2), pages 202-222, July.
    22. Montero Llácer, Francisco J., 2005. "Panama Canal Management," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 25-37, January.
    23. Ricardo J. Sánchez & Daniel E. Perrotti, 2012. "Looking into the future: big full containerships and their arrival to South American ports," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(6), pages 571-588, November.
    24. Liao, Chun-Hsiung & Lu, Chin-Shan & Tseng, Po-Hsing, 2011. "Carbon dioxide emissions and inland container transport in Taiwan," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 722-728.
    25. Chang, Chih-Ching & Lin, Kuang & Bao, Jya-yuan, 2006. "Developing direct shipping across the Taiwan Straits," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 392-399, July.
    26. Hearns, Glen S & Stormont, William G, 1996. "Managing Potential Conflicts in the South China Sea," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-181, March.
    27. Aranda-Usón, Alfonso & Ferreira, Germán & Mainar-Toledo, M.D. & Scarpellini, Sabina & Llera Sastresa, Eva, 2012. "Energy consumption analysis of Spanish food and drink, textile, chemical and non-metallic mineral products sectors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 477-485.
    28. Somanathan, Saran & Flynn, Peter & Szymanski, Jozef, 2009. "The Northwest Passage: A simulation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 127-135, February.
    29. Mohamed M. Mostafa, 2004. "Forecasting the Suez Canal traffic: a neural network analysis," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 139-156, April.
    30. Tavasszy, Lóránt & Minderhoud, Michiel & Perrin, Jean-François & Notteboom, Theo, 2011. "A strategic network choice model for global container flows: specification, estimation and application," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1163-1172.
    31. Peter Nijkamp, 2003. "Globalization, international transport and the global environment: A research and policy challenge," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 1-8, February.
    32. Erik Haites, 2009. "Linking emissions trading schemes for international aviation and shipping emissions," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 415-430, July.
    33. Jiahua Pan & Jonathan Phillips & Ying Chen, 2008. "China's balance of emissions embodied in trade: approaches to measurement and allocating international responsibility," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 24(2), pages 354-376, Summer.
    34. Montero Llacer, Francisco J., 2006. "Port privatization in Panama," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 483-495, September.
    35. Lin, Boqiang & Liu, Jianghua & Yang, Yingchun, 2012. "Impact of carbon intensity and energy security constraints on China's coal import," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 137-147.
    36. Montero Llácer, Francisco J., 2004. "Panamanian maritime sector management," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 283-295, July.
    37. Perez-Labajos, Carlos & Blanco, Beatriz, 2004. "Competitive policies for commercial sea ports in the EU," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 553-556, November.
    38. Sterner, Thomas & Damon, Maria, 2011. "Green growth in the post-Copenhagen climate," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7165-7173.
    39. Ricardo Ungo & Rodolfo Sabonge, 2012. "A competitive analysis of Panama Canal routes," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(6), pages 555-570, November.
    40. Mattila, Tuomas & Antikainen, Riina, 2011. "Backcasting sustainable freight transport systems for Europe in 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1241-1248, March.
    41. Nadim Ahmad & Andrew Wyckoff, 2003. "Carbon Dioxide Emissions Embodied in International Trade of Goods," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2003/15, OECD Publishing.
    42. Liu, Miaojia & Kronbak, Jacob, 2010. "The potential economic viability of using the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as an alternative route between Asia and Europe," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 434-444.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhi Heng & Tsz Leung Yip, 2018. "Impacts of Kra Canal and its toll structures on tanker traffic," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 125-139, January.
    2. Mark Ching-Pong Poo & Tsz Leung Yip, 2019. "An optimization model for container inventory management," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 273(1), pages 433-453, February.
    3. Abdolrasoul Ghasemi & Elnaz Miandoabchi & Shiva Soroushnia, 2021. "The attractiveness of seaport-based transport corridors: an integrated approach based on scenario planning and gravity models," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 23(3), pages 522-547, September.
    4. Jihong Chen & Theo Notteboom & Xiang Liu & Hang Yu & Nikitas Nikitakos & Chen Yang, 2019. "The Nicaragua Canal: potential impact on international shipping and its attendant challenges," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 21(1), pages 79-98, March.
    5. Lin, Weiqiang, 2019. "Transport geography and geopolitics: Visions, rules and militarism in China's Belt and Road Initiative and beyond," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    6. Meza, Carlos Germán & Zuluaga Rodríguez, Catalina & D'Aquino, Camila Agner & Amado, Nilton Bispo & Rodrigues, Alcantaro & Sauer, Ildo Luis, 2019. "Toward a 100% renewable island: A case study of Ometepe's energy mix," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 628-648.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Theocharis, Dimitrios & Pettit, Stephen & Rodrigues, Vasco Sanchez & Haider, Jane, 2018. "Arctic shipping: A systematic literature review of comparative studies," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 112-128.
    2. Koçak, Saim Turgut & Yercan, Funda, 2021. "Comparative cost-effectiveness analysis of Arctic and international shipping routes: A Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 147-164.
    3. Jihong Chen & Theo Notteboom & Xiang Liu & Hang Yu & Nikitas Nikitakos & Chen Yang, 2019. "The Nicaragua Canal: potential impact on international shipping and its attendant challenges," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 21(1), pages 79-98, March.
    4. Zhao, Hui & Hu, Hao & Lin, Yisong, 2016. "Study on China-EU container shipping network in the context of Northern Sea Route," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 50-60.
    5. Lasserre, Frédéric & Pelletier, Sébastien, 2011. "Polar super seaways? Maritime transport in the Arctic: an analysis of shipowners’ intentions," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1465-1473.
    6. Junseung Kim & Kyungku Kim & Kum Fai Yuen & Keun-Sik Park, 2020. "Cost and Scenario Analysis of Intermodal Transportation Routes from Korea to the USA: After the Panama Canal Expansion," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-20, August.
    7. Sibul, Gleb & Jin, Jian Gang, 2021. "Evaluating the feasibility of combined use of the Northern Sea Route and the Suez Canal Route considering ice parameters," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 350-369.
    8. Kenneth Button & Tomaž Kramberger & Tea Vizinger & Marko Intihar, 2017. "Economic implications for Adriatic seaport regions of further opening of the Northern Sea Route," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 19(1), pages 52-67, March.
    9. Notteboom, Theo E., 2012. "Towards a new intermediate hub region in container shipping? Relay and interlining via the Cape route vs. the Suez route," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 164-178.
    10. Zeng, Qingcheng & Wang, Grace W.Y. & Qu, Chenrui & Li, Kevin X., 2018. "Impact of the Carat Canal on the evolution of hub ports under China’s Belt and Road initiative," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 96-107.
    11. Christian Finnsgård & Joakim Kalantari & Zeeshan Raza & Violeta Roso & Johan Woxenius, 2018. "Swedish shippers’ strategies for coping with slow-steaming in deep sea container shipping," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-24, December.
    12. Irina V. Benedyk & Srinivas Peeta, 2018. "A binary probit model to analyze freight transportation decision-maker perspectives for container shipping on the Northern Sea Route," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 20(3), pages 358-374, September.
    13. Zhang, Yiru & Meng, Qiang & Ng, Szu Hui, 2016. "Shipping efficiency comparison between Northern Sea Route and the conventional Asia-Europe shipping route via Suez Canal," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 241-249.
    14. Lasserre, Frédéric & Beveridge, Leah & Fournier, Mélanie & Têtu, Pierre-Louis & Huang, Linyan, 2016. "Polar seaways? Maritime transport in the Arctic: An analysis of shipowners' intentions II," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 105-114.
    15. Lin, Dung-Ying & Chang, Yu-Ting, 2018. "Ship routing and freight assignment problem for liner shipping: Application to the Northern Sea Route planning problem," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 47-70.
    16. ZhongXiang Zhang, 2012. "Who should bear the cost of China’s carbon emissions embodied in goods for exports?," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 24(2), pages 103-117, June.
    17. Gabriela Michalek & Reimund Schwarze, 2015. "Carbon leakage: pollution, trade or politics?," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 17(6), pages 1471-1492, December.
    18. Xing, Hui & Spence, Stephen & Chen, Hua, 2020. "A comprehensive review on countermeasures for CO2 emissions from ships," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    19. Liu, Ying & Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu & Neri, Frank, 2013. "Who is responsible for the CO2 emissions that China produces?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1412-1419.
    20. Sun, Zhuo & Zheng, Jianfeng, 2016. "Finding potential hub locations for liner shipping," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 750-761.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:43:y:2015:i:c:p:1-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-transport-geography .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.