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Looking into the future: big full containerships and their arrival to South American ports

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  • Ricardo J. Sánchez
  • Daniel E. Perrotti

Abstract

The global and regional economic growth seen in the past decades has triggered a major transformation of the maritime transport sector, the ports, and the logistics. Regarding shipping in particular, ships of a growing size are being allocated to container transport with increasing frequency. This size enlargement has a strategic implication in the planning of ports and its services and related activities. Considering historical data, it can be observed that the large vessels which travel the main maritime routes of worldwide trade need progressively fewer years to reach the coasts of South America. This paper seeks to determine the time span before the largest vessels of the present time (with an average 13 000 TEUS) will reach the South American coasts. Different models were estimated, considering the following factors as explanatory variables for the international maximum vessel size: maritime trade, global economic activity, time span between the appearance of vessels navigating the maritime routes of international trade and their arrival to the coasts of the mentioned region, and the characteristics of the eastern and western South American coasts. As a major finding, it was determined that the vessels of an average 13 000 TEUS would reach South America regularly between 2016 and 2020. These results are interesting in order to warn about the need for an efficient medium-term planning of the port industry and the logistics that could maximize the benefits of its impact on the regional economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo J. Sánchez & Daniel E. Perrotti, 2012. "Looking into the future: big full containerships and their arrival to South American ports," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(6), pages 571-588, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:marpmg:v:39:y:2012:i:6:p:571-588
    DOI: 10.1080/03088839.2012.729697
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. R. G. McLellan, 1997. "Bigger vessels: How big is too big?," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 193-211, January.
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    3. Chihwa Kao, 1997. "Spurious Regression and Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Panel Data When the Cross-Section and Time-Series Dimensions are Comparable," Econometrics 9703002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ricardo J. Sánchez & Daniel E. Perrotti & Alejandra Gomez Paz Fort, 2021. "Looking into the future ten years later: big full containerships and their arrival to south American ports," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-20, December.
    2. Gordon Wilmsmeier & Kevin P.B. Cullinane & Theo Notteboom & Ricardo J. Sánchez, 2012. "IAME 2011 -- contemporary studies on maritime transport in Latin America," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(6), pages 549-554, November.
    3. Wilmsmeier, Gordon & Monios, Jason & Farfán, Adriana Francesca Ballén, 2021. "Port system evolution in Ecuador – Migration, location splitting or specialisation?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    4. Monios, Jason, 2017. "Cascading feeder vessels and the rationalisation of small container ports," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 88-99.
    5. Yip, Tsz Leung & Wong, Mei Chi, 2015. "The Nicaragua Canal: scenarios of its future roles," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-13.
    6. Perrotti, Daniel E., 2015. "The People’s Republic of China and Latin America: the impact of Chinese economic growth on Latin American exports," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.

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