Explaining consumer confidence in Portugal
AbstractConfidence in general and consumer confidence in particular are subject to increasing interest by many agents, including central banks and governments at the national level, and supranational entities, such as the European Commission of the European Union. Although the academic community shares this interest, the extant literature focuses on the use of consumer confidence to predict variables that describe aspects of the business cycle, such as consumption. Unlike this body of work, the objective of our paper is to analyse the evolution of consumer confidence in Portugal and examine the factors that underpin its formation. Using monthly and quarterly data over the period January 1987 to December 2009, we find that consumer confidence in Portugal is essentially explained by the economic performance, the entrance in the Euro zone and electoral circumstances.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Psychology.
Volume (Year): 32 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/joep
Consumer confidence Business cycle Elections Portugal;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Vogelsang, T.I. & Perron, P., 1991.
"Nonstationary and Level Shifts With An Application To Purchasing Power Parity,"
359, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-20, July.
- Dion, David Pascal, 2006. "Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Spending?," MPRA Paper 902, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Dion, David Pascal, 2006. "Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Spending? The Euro Area Case," MPRA Paper 911, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Matsusaka, John G & Sbordone, Argia M, 1995.
"Consumer Confidence and Economic Fluctuations,"
Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(2), pages 296-318, April.
- Mourougane, Annabelle & Roma, Moreno, 2002.
"Can confidence indicators be useful to predict short term real GDP growth?,"
Working Paper Series
0133, European Central Bank.
- Annabelle Mourougane & Moreno Roma, 2003. "Can confidence indicators be useful to predict short term real GDP growth?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(8), pages 519-522.
- Sharon G. Harrison, 2005. "Do Sunspots Reflect Consumer Confidence? An Empirical Investigation," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 55-73, Winter.
- Bob McNabb & Karl Taylor, 2002.
"Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence from Europe,"
Discussion Papers in Economics
02/3, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
- Karl Taylor & Robert McNabb, 2007. "Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence for Europe," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(2), pages 185-208, 04.
- Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 651-78, August.
- Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996.
"Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
- Tom Doan, . "GREGORYHANSEN: RATS procedure to implement Gregory-Hansen test for Cointegration with breaks," Statistical Software Components RTS00082, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate results from Gregory and Hansen(1996) JOE article," Statistical Software Components RTZ00081, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Gregory, A.W. & Hansen, B.E., 1992. "Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," RCER Working Papers 335, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Allan w. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992. "residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," Working Papers 862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Karel-Jan Alsem & Steven Brakman & Lex Hoogduin & Gerard Kuper, 2004.
"The Impact of Newspapers on Consumer Confidence: Does Spin Bias Exist?,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1328, CESifo Group Munich.
- Karel Jan Alsem & Steven Brakman & Lex Hoogduin & Gerard Kuper, 2008. "The impact of newspapers on consumer confidence: does spin bias exist?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(5), pages 531-539.
- Alsem, Karel-Jan & Brakman, Steven & Hoogduin, Lex & Kuper, Gerard, 2004. "The impact of newspapers on consumer confidence: does spin bias exist?," CCSO Working Papers 200410, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
- Karel-Jan Alsem & Steven Brakman & Lex Hoogduin & Gerard Kuper, 2004. "The Impact of Newspapers on Consumer Confidence: Does Spin Bias Exist?," DNB Working Papers 011, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Daron Acemoglu & Andrew Scott, 1993.
"Consumer Confidence and Rational Expectations: Are Agents Beliefs Consistent with the Theory?,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0119, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1994. "Consumer Confidence and Rational Expectations: Are Agents' Beliefs Consistent with the Theory?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(422), pages 1-19, January.
- Clemente, Jesus & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998. "Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 175-182, May.
- Bechtel, Gordon G. & Abeele, Piet Vanden & DeMeyer, Anne Marie, 1993. "The sociotropic aspect of consumer confidence," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 615-633, December.
- Andy C.C. Kwan & John A. Cotsomitis, 2006. "The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence in Forecasting Household Spending in Canada: A National and Regional Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(1), pages 185-197, January.
- Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter, 1992. "The CUSUM Test with OLS Residuals," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 271-85, March.
- Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-party System as a Repeated Game," Scholarly Articles 4552531, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2003. "What is this thing called confidence? A comparative analysis of consumer confidence indices in eight major countries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 484, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Vuchelen, Jef, 2004. "Consumer sentiment and macroeconomic forecasts," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 493-506, August.
- Antonio Caleiro, 2006. "How is confidence related to unemployment in Portugal?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(13), pages 887-890.
- Teresa Santero & Niels Westerlund, 1996. "Confidence Indicators and Their Relationship to Changes in Economic Activity," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 170, OECD Publishing.
- Vuchelen, Jef, 1995. "Political events and consumer confidence in Belgium," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 563-579, December.
- Armand Faganel, 2011. "Recognized Values and Consumption Patterns of Post-Crisis Consumers," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 9(2), pages 151-170.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.