The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence in Forecasting Household Spending in Canada: A National and Regional Analysis
AbstractWe examine the ability of the Conference Board of Canada's Index of Consumer Attitudes (ICA) to forecast Canadian household spending both nationally and regionally. Our results indicate that at the national level, the ICA is able to predict total personal consumption expenditures and various subcategories of consumer spending, even when controlling for other macroeconomic variables. We find, however, that the forecasting ability of the regional indices is somewhat weaker when compared to that of the national ICA. Overall, our results reconfirm that consumer confidence is a reliable predictor of household spending in Canada. (JEL C53, E21) Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Western Economic Association International in its journal Economic Inquiry.
Volume (Year): 44 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
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- Österholm, Pär, 2009. "Improving Unemployment Rate Forecasts Using Survey Data," Working Paper 112, National Institute of Economic Research.
- Ramalho, Esmeralda A. & Caleiro, António & Dionfsio, Andreia, 2011. "Explaining consumer confidence in Portugal," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 25-32, February.
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