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The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence in Forecasting Household Spending in Canada: A National and Regional Analysis

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Author Info
Andy C.C. Kwan
John A. Cotsomitis
Abstract

We examine the ability of the Conference Board of Canada's Index of Consumer Attitudes (ICA) to forecast Canadian household spending both nationally and regionally. Our results indicate that at the national level, the ICA is able to predict total personal consumption expenditures and various subcategories of consumer spending, even when controlling for other macroeconomic variables. We find, however, that the forecasting ability of the regional indices is somewhat weaker when compared to that of the national ICA. Overall, our results reconfirm that consumer confidence is a reliable predictor of household spending in Canada. (JEL C53, E21) Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ei/cbi064
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Economic Inquiry.

Volume (Year): 44 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 185-197
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Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:44:y:2006:i:1:p:185-197

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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This page was last updated on 2009-12-15.

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