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A multinomial logit approach to exchange rate policy classification with an application to growth

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  • Dubas, Justin M.
  • Lee, Byung-Joo
  • Mark, Nelson C.

Abstract

We model a country's de jure exchange rate policy as the choice from a multinomial logit response conditioned on the volatility of its bilateral exchange rate, the volatility of its international reserves, and the volatility of its effective exchange rate. The category with the highest predictive probability implied by the logit regressions serves as our de facto exchange rate policy. An empirical investigation into the relationship between the de facto classifications and GDP growth finds that growth is higher under stable currency-value policies. For non-industrialized countries, a more nuanced characterization of exchange rate policy finds that those who exhibit 'fear of floating' experience significantly higher growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Dubas, Justin M. & Lee, Byung-Joo & Mark, Nelson C., 2010. "A multinomial logit approach to exchange rate policy classification with an application to growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1438-1462, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:29:y:2010:i:7:p:1438-1462
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Fischer, Christoph, 2016. "Determining global currency bloc equilibria: An empirical strategy based on estimates of anchor currency choice," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 214-238.
    3. Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2013. "Rating agencies’ signals during the European sovereign debt crisis: Market impact and spillovers," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 144-162.
    4. Wang, P.J., 2013. "A driver currency hypothesis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 60-62.
    5. Fischer, Christoph, 2011. "Currency blocs in the 21st century," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,12, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Castañeda, Gonzalo & Pietronero, Luciano & Romero-Padilla, Juan & Zaccaria, Andrea, 2022. "The complex dynamic of growth: Fitness and the different patterns of economic activity in the medium and long terms," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 231-246.
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    8. Berg, Kimberly A. & Mark, Nelson C., 2015. "Third-country effects on the exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 227-243.
    9. Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2012. "Foreign exchange market reactions to sovereign credit news," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 845-864.
    10. Chen Ku‐Hsieh, 2021. "Depreciate to save the economy? An empirical evidence worldwide," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1563-1585, January.
    11. Pengyuan Wang & Eric Bradlow & Edward George, 2014. "Meta-analyses using information reweighting: An application to online advertising," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 209-233, June.
    12. Fischer, Christoph, 2015. "Determining global currency bloc equilibria," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113197, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2019. "Macroeconomic Institutions: Lessons from World Experience for MENA Countries," Working Papers 1311, Economic Research Forum, revised 21 Aug 2019.
    14. Christoph Fischer, 2011. "Currency blocs in the 21st century," Globalization Institute Working Papers 87, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

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