IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jfpoli/v49y2014ip2p418-424.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Issues and strategies in ex-post evaluation of intervention against animal disease outbreaks and spread

Author

Listed:
  • Fadiga, Mohamadou L.
  • Katjiuongua, Hikuepi B.

Abstract

Animal disease outbreaks pose a significant threat in terms of potential economic losses, reduced productivity, and negative impacts on public health, food security and nutrition. This paper considers four issues in ex-post evaluation of animal disease interventions: firstly, a counterfactual involves simulating disease trajectories without the intervention. But some diseases can become endemic or become dormant after an outbreak, making it a challenge to know the true trajectory without the intervention. Secondly, without adequate design of controls and treatments, how can the estimated impacts be attributed to a given intervention? Thirdly, how do we assess costs saved by the intervention? Fourthly, given data uncertainty, would a stochastic simulation give better estimates than a deterministic one in solving for key variables? This paper addresses these issues and proposes solutions that bridge the gap between household level analysis and macro-level simulations in modelling the impact of animal diseases outbreaks.

Suggested Citation

  • Fadiga, Mohamadou L. & Katjiuongua, Hikuepi B., 2014. "Issues and strategies in ex-post evaluation of intervention against animal disease outbreaks and spread," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(P2), pages 418-424.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:49:y:2014:i:p2:p:418-424
    DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2014.10.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306919214001493
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.foodpol.2014.10.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pritchett, James G. & Thilmany, Dawn D. & Johnson, Kamina K., 2005. "Animal Disease Economic Impacts: A Survey of Literature and Typology of Research Approaches," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-23.
    2. Hashem Pesaran, M. & Smith, Ron P., 2016. "Counterfactual analysis in macroeconometrics: An empirical investigation into the effects of quantitative easing," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 262-280.
    3. Karl M. Rich & Alex Winter-Nelson, 2007. "An Integrated Epidemiological-Economic Analysis of Foot and Mouth Disease: Applications to the Southern Cone of South America," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(3), pages 682-697.
    4. Aklesso Egbendewe-Mondzozo & Levan Elbakidze & Bruce A. McCarl & Michael P. Ward & John B. Carey, 2013. "Partial equilibrium analysis of vaccination as an avian influenza control tool in the U.S. poultry sector," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(1), pages 111-123, January.
    5. Richard Bennett, 2003. "The ‘Direct Costs’of Livestock Disease: The Development of a System of Models for the Analysis of 30 Endemic Livestock Diseases in Great Britain," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(1), pages 55-71, March.
    6. Paarlberg, Philip L. & Lee, John G. & Seitzinger, Ann Hillberg, 2005. "Economic Modeling of Livestock Disease Outbreaks," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16.
    7. Victora, C.G. & Habicht, J.-P. & Bryce, J., 2004. "Evidence-Based Public Health: Moving Beyond Randomized Trials," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 94(3), pages 400-405.
    8. Msangi, Siwa & Enahoro, Dolapo & Herrero, Mario & Magnan, Nicholas & Havlik, Petr & Notenbaert, An & Nelgen, Signe, 2014. "Integrating livestock feeds and production systems into agricultural multi-market models: The example of IMPACT," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(P2), pages 365-377.
    9. Ezedinma, Chuma I. & Kormawa, P.M. & Chianu, Jonas, 2006. "Urban Household Demand For Meat And Meat Products In Nigeria: An Almost Ideal Demand System Analysis," FAMAN Conference 2006 54404, Farm Management Association of Nigeria (FAMAN).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alejandro Acosta & Carlos Barrantes & Rico Ihle, 2020. "Animal disease outbreaks and food market price dynamics: Evidence from regime‐dependent modelling and connected scatterplots," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), pages 960-976, July.
    2. Msangi, Siwa & Enahoro, Dolapo & Herrero, Mario & Magnan, Nicholas & Havlik, Petr & Notenbaert, An & Nelgen, Signe, 2014. "Integrating livestock feeds and production systems into agricultural multi-market models: The example of IMPACT," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(P2), pages 365-377.
    3. van Wijk, Mark T., 2014. "From global economic modelling to household level analyses of food security and sustainability: How big is the gap and can we bridge it?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(P2), pages 378-388.
    4. Acosta, Alejandro & Barrantes, Carlos & Ihle, Rico, 2020. "Animal disease outbreaks and food market price dynamics: Evidence from regime-dependent modelling and connected scatterplots," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), July.
    5. Baker, Derek & Enahoro, Dolapo, 2014. "Policy analysis and advocacy for livestock-based development: The gap between household-level analysis and higher-level models," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(P2), pages 361-364.
    6. Seeger, Riley M. & Hagerman, Amy D. & Johnson, Kamina K. & Pendell, Dustin L. & Marsh, Thomas L., 2021. "When poultry take a sick leave: Response costs for the 2014–2015 highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic in the USA," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fadiga, Mohamadou L. & Okike, Iheanacho & Bett, Bernard, 2014. "An expost economic assessment of the intervention against highly pathogenic avian influenza in Nigeria," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-17, April.
    2. Gramig, Benjamin M. & Horan, Richard D., 2011. "Jointly determined livestock disease dynamics and decentralised economic behavior," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 55(3), pages 1-18, September.
    3. Alyson S Barratt & Matthieu H Arnoult & Bouda Vosough Ahmadi & Karl M Rich & George J Gunn & Alistair W Stott, 2018. "A framework for estimating society's economic welfare following the introduction of an animal disease: The case of Johne's disease," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(6), pages 1-26, June.
    4. Li, Jian & Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2020. "The Impacts of African Swine Fever on Vertical and Spatial Hog Pricing and Market Integration in China," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304516, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Tomo, Alda & Crawford, Eric W. & Donovan, Cynthia & Lloyd, James W. & Udo, Henk & Viets, Theo, 2012. "Does Village Chickens Vaccination Raise Farmers’ Income? Evidence from Rural Mozambique," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 130977, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. David A. Hennessy, 2007. "Behavioral Incentives, Equilibrium Endemic Disease, and Health Management Policy for Farmed Animals," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(3), pages 698-711.
    7. Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Achim Truger & Andrew Wa, 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459084, HAL.
      • Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Achim Truger & Andrew Wa, 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-03459084, HAL.
      • Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Thomas Theobald & Achim , 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," PSE Working Papers hal-03612850, HAL.
      • Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Achim Truger & Andrew Wa, 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," Post-Print hal-03459084, HAL.
      • Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Thomas Theobald & Achim , 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," Working Papers hal-03612850, HAL.
      • Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Thomas Theobald & Achim , 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03612850, HAL.
      • Georg Feigl & Markus Marterbauer & Miriam Rehm & Matthias Schnetzer & Sepp Zuckerstätter & Lars Nørvang Andersen & Thea Nissen & Signe Dahl & Peter Hohlfeld & Benjamin Lojak & Thomas Theobald & Achim , 2016. "The Elusive Recovery," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-03612850, HAL.
    8. Sonja Jungreitmayr & Susanne Ring-Dimitriou & Birgit Trukeschitz & Siegfried Eisenberg & Cornelia Schneider, 2021. "Effects of an Information and Communication Technology-Based Fitness Program on Strength and Balance in Female Home Care Service Users," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(15), pages 1-14, July.
    9. Philipp Hartman & Frank Smets, 2018. "The European Central Bank’s Monetary Policy during Its First 20 Years," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 1-146.
    10. Seeger, Riley M. & Hagerman, Amy D. & Johnson, Kamina K. & Pendell, Dustin L. & Marsh, Thomas L., 2021. "When poultry take a sick leave: Response costs for the 2014–2015 highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic in the USA," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    11. Shayan Zakipour-Saber, 2019. "Monetary policy regimes and inflation persistence in the United Kingdom," Working Papers 895, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    12. Stéphanie Truchet & Nicolas Mauhe & Marie Herve, 2017. "Veterinarian shortage areas: what determines the location of new graduates?," Review of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Studies, Springer, vol. 98(4), pages 255-282, December.
    13. Carvalho, Carlos & Masini, Ricardo & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2018. "ArCo: An artificial counterfactual approach for high-dimensional panel time-series data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 352-380.
    14. Cezar, Rafael & Silvestrini, Maéva, 2021. "Impact of the ECB Quantitative Easing on the International Investment Position," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 241-263.
    15. Joyce, Michael & Spaltro, Marco, 2014. "Quantitative easing and bank lending: a panel data approach," Bank of England working papers 504, Bank of England.
    16. Kelly, Michael & Morgan, Antony & Ellis, Simon & Younger, Tricia & Huntley, Jane & Swann, Catherine, 2010. "Evidence based public health: A review of the experience of the National Institute of Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) of developing public health guidance in England," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 71(6), pages 1056-1062, September.
    17. Kok, Christoffer & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Hałaj, Grzegorz, 2016. "Bank capital structure and the credit channel of central bank asset purchases," Working Paper Series 1916, European Central Bank.
    18. Paarlberg, Philip L. & Lee, John G. & Seitzinger, Ann Hillberg, 2005. "Economic Modeling of Livestock Disease Outbreaks," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16.
    19. Nektarios A. Michail & Kyriaki G. LouKa, 2023. "The inefficiency of Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area," Working Papers 2023-3, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    20. Niemi, Jarkko K. & Lehtonen, Heikki, 2008. "Modelling The Dynamics Of Production Adjustment To Short-Term Market Shocks," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6401, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:49:y:2014:i:p2:p:418-424. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/foodpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.