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Modelling The Dynamics Of Production Adjustment To Short-Term Market Shocks

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  • Niemi, Jarkko K.
  • Lehtonen, Heikki

Abstract

Models of agricultural economics typically operate at an annual basis or in a static equilibrium framework where inputs, outputs and their prices may change considerably. Production dynamics, however, imply that models relying on spatial and temporal aggregation do not capture the effects of biological constraints in the short run. This paper examines short and long-term impacts of demand and production cost shocks in the pig sector. The analysis is carried out with a dynamic programming model which takes into account changes in export and domestic demand and market clearing price. It optimizes the supply of piglets on a monthly basis. Econometric techniques are used to estimate demand functions. Short-term negative market shocks can already have significant income effects to agricultural producers. We simulated effects of pig meat export bans of different degrees due to livestock epidemics. Full closure of export markets for six months cost pig sector €21 million.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain with number 6401.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa107:6401

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Keywords: pig; demand; dynamic programming; export; livestock epidemics; price; supply; Demand and Price Analysis; Livestock Production/Industries; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty;

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  1. Pritchett, James G. & Thilmany, Dawn D. & Johnson, Kamina K., 2005. "Animal Disease Economic Impacts: A Survey of Literature and Typology of Research Approaches," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association (IAMA), vol. 8(01).
  2. M.-J. J. Mangen & A. M. Burrell, 2003. "Who gains, who loses? Welfare effects of classical swine fever epidemics in the Netherlands," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 125-154, June.
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