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Jointly-Determined Livestock Disease Dynamics and Decentralized Economic Behavior

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  • Gramig, Benjamin M.
  • Horan, Richard D.

Abstract

We develop a dynamic model of livestock disease and decentralized economic behavior as a jointly-determined system. By accounting for feedbacks between behavioral choices and disease outcomes we capture the endogenous nature of infection risks. We consider government mandated testing of livestock herds and how private biosecurity incentives are affected by the structure of disease eradication polices. How well disease control policies are targeted affects their effectiveness and may result in farmers substituting government testing and disease surveillance for private biosecurity. Numerical simulation results demonstrate that failing to account for feedbacks between disease and economic dynamics may underestimate the level of infection. Not accounting for behavioral responses to infection risks may overestimate the effectiveness of government disease control policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Gramig, Benjamin M. & Horan, Richard D., 2009. "Jointly-Determined Livestock Disease Dynamics and Decentralized Economic Behavior," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49260, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea09:49260
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.49260
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    2. MacLachlan, Matthew J. & Hagerman, Amy D., 2017. "Measuring Storage Responses of Broiler Meat Producers During an Outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258032, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
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    4. Bate, Andrew M. & Jones, Glyn & Kleczkowski, Adam & MacLeod, Alan & Naylor, Rebecca & Timmis, Jon & Touza, Julia & White, Piran C.L., 2016. "Modelling the impact and control of an infectious disease in a plant nursery with infected plant material inputs," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 334(C), pages 27-43.
    5. Kompas, Tom & Ha, Pham Van & Nguyen, Hoa Thi Minh & East, Iain & Roche, Sharon & Garner, Graeme, 2017. "Optimal surveillance against foot-and-mouth disease: the case of bulk milk testing in Australia," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 61(4), October.
    6. Niemi, Jarkko K. & SahlströmJonna, Leena & Lyytikäinen, KyyröTapani & Sinisalo, Alina, . "Farm characteristics and perceptions regarding costs contribute to the adoption of biosecurity in Finnish pig and cattle farms," Review of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Studies, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), vol. 97(4).
    7. Leister, Amanda M. & Lee, John G. & Paarlberg, Philip L., 2013. "Dynamic Effects of Drought on the U.S. Livestock Sector," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149946, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Rat-Aspert, Olivier & Krebs, Stephane, 2013. "Économie des actions collectives de maîtrise des maladies animales endémiques. Proposition d’un cadre d’analyse," Économie rurale, French Society of Rural Economics (SFER Société Française d'Economie Rurale), vol. 338(November-).
    9. MacLachlan, Matthew J. & Boussios, David, 2018. "Identifying the price determinants of animal products in the presence of structural breaks," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 273974, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Eli Fenichel & Timothy Richards & David Shanafelt, 2014. "The Control of Invasive Species on Private Property with Neighbor-to-Neighbor Spillovers," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 59(2), pages 231-255, October.
    11. Kobayashi, Mimako & Melkonyan, Tigran A., 2011. "Strategic Incentives in Biosecurity Actions: Theoretical and Empirical Analyses," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(2), pages 1-21, July.

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