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Animal disease outbreaks and food market price dynamics: Evidence from regime‐dependent modelling and connected scatterplots

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  • Alejandro Acosta
  • Carlos Barrantes
  • Rico Ihle

Abstract

The economic impacts of animal disease outbreaks have been widely discussed in the literature. Most authors have centred their attention on estimating the direct costs. Recent studies have shown that the indirect economic effects might lead to equal or even higher welfare losses. This study aims to contribute to this field of research by assessing the effect of an animal disease outbreak on food market price dynamics in Mexico, accounting for the potential effect of an antitrust intervention. We employ a regime‐dependent vector error correction model and a connected scatterplot analysis. The results show that both the outbreak and the antitrust intervention caused structural breaks in food market price dynamics between producers and consumers, reflected in an increase in the absolute component of the marketing margin, with serious food security implications.

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  • Alejandro Acosta & Carlos Barrantes & Rico Ihle, 2020. "Animal disease outbreaks and food market price dynamics: Evidence from regime‐dependent modelling and connected scatterplots," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), pages 960-976, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:64:y:2020:i:3:p:960-976
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8489.12387
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    1. Acosta, Alejandro & McCorriston, Steve & Nicolli, Francesco & Venturelli, Ester & Wickramasinghe, Upali & ArceDiaz, Eduardo & Scudiero, Lavinia & Sammartino, Alejandro & Schneider, Fritz & Steinfeld, , 2021. "Immediate effects of COVID-19 on the global dairy sector," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    2. Omid Zamani & Thomas Bittmann & Jens‐Peter Loy, 2022. "The role of temperature for seasonal market integration: a case study of poultry in Iran," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(1), pages 187-215, January.
    3. Rico Ihle & Ofir D. Rubin & Ziv Bar-Nahum & Roel Jongeneel, 2020. "Imperfect food markets in times of crisis: economic consequences of supply chain disruptions and fragmentation for local market power and urban vulnerability," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(4), pages 727-734, August.

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