IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jfinec/v132y2019i2p427-450.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mood, firm behavior, and aggregate economic outcomes

Author

Listed:
  • Chhaochharia, Vidhi
  • Kim, Dasol
  • Korniotis, George M.
  • Kumar, Alok

Abstract

This study examines whether mood affects the aggregate state-level macroeconomy through its impact on firm-level decisions. Using sky cloud cover as a proxy for mood, we show that mood affects the economic expectations of small business managers. After relatively sunnier periods, managers have more optimistic expectations, and the component of their expectations related to mood influences hiring and investment decisions. Consequently, mood affects state-level job creation and new business starts, especially during periods of greater economic uncertainty. These results suggest that mood-induced economic expectations influence firm-level managerial decisions and state-level macroeconomic fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Chhaochharia, Vidhi & Kim, Dasol & Korniotis, George M. & Kumar, Alok, 2019. "Mood, firm behavior, and aggregate economic outcomes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 427-450.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:132:y:2019:i:2:p:427-450
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2018.10.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X18303003
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jfineco.2018.10.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cortés, Kristle & Duchin, Ran & Sosyura, Denis, 2016. "Clouded judgment: The role of sentiment in credit origination," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 392-413.
    2. Nicola Gennaioli & Yueran Ma & Andrei Shleifer, 2016. "Expectations and Investment," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 379-431.
    3. Kleibergen, Frank & Paap, Richard, 2006. "Generalized reduced rank tests using the singular value decomposition," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 97-126, July.
    4. Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate, 2005. "CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2661-2700, December.
    5. David Hirshleifer & Tyler Shumway, 2003. "Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1009-1032, June.
    6. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    7. George A. Akerlof, 2009. "How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1175-1175.
    8. Greifeneder, Rainer & Bless, Herbert, 2007. "Relying on accessible content versus accessibility experiences: The case of processing capacity," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 07-32, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    9. Itzhak Ben-David & John R. Graham, 2013. "Managerial Miscalibration," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 128(4), pages 1547-1584.
    10. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    11. De Silva, Dakshina G. & Pownall, Rachel A.J. & Wolk, Leonard, 2012. "Does the sun ‘shine’ on art prices?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 167-178.
    12. George M. Korniotis & Alok Kumar, 2013. "State-Level Business Cycles and Local Return Predictability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1037-1096, June.
    13. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "The risk and return of venture capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 3-52, January.
    14. William N. Goetzmann & Ning Zhu, 2005. "Rain or Shine: Where is the Weather Effect?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 11(5), pages 559-578, November.
    15. Kida, T. & Smith, J. F. & Maletta, M., 1998. "The effects of encoded memory traces for numerical data on accounting decision making," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 23(5-6), pages 451-466.
    16. Malmendier, Ulrike & Tate, Geoffrey, 2008. "Who makes acquisitions? CEO overconfidence and the market's reaction," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 20-43, July.
    17. Ed Dehaan & Joshua Madsen & Joseph D. Piotroski, 2017. "Do Weather‐Induced Moods Affect the Processing of Earnings News?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 509-550, June.
    18. Adaval, Rashmi, 2001. "Sometimes It Just Feels Right: The Differential Weighting of Affect-Consistent and Affect-Inconsistent Product Information," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 28(1), pages 1-17, June.
    19. Loughran, Tim & Schultz, Paul, 2004. "Weather, Stock Returns, and the Impact of Localized Trading Behavior," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 343-364, June.
    20. Pham, Michel Tuan, 1998. "Representativeness, Relevance, and the Use of Feelings in Decision Making," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 25(2), pages 144-159, September.
    21. Wright, William F. & Bower, Gordon H., 1992. "Mood effects on subjective probability assessment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 276-291, July.
    22. Philipp Koellinger & Theresa Treffers, 2015. "Joy Leads to Overconfidence, and a Simple Countermeasure," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(12), pages 1-22, December.
    23. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, December.
    24. William N. Goetzmann & Dasol Kim & Alok Kumar & Qin Wang, 2015. "Weather-Induced Mood, Institutional Investors, and Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(1), pages 73-111.
    25. Saunders, Edward M, Jr, 1993. "Stock Prices and Wall Street Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1337-1345, December.
    26. David Hirshleifer & Angie Low & Siew Hong Teoh, 2012. "Are Overconfident CEOs Better Innovators?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1457-1498, August.
    27. Diego García, 2013. "Sentiment during Recessions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1267-1300, June.
    28. Brian J. Bushee & Henry L. Friedman, 2016. "Disclosure Standards and the Sensitivity of Returns to Mood," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 787-822.
    29. Arthur Korteweg & Morten Sorensen, 2010. "Risk and Return Characteristics of Venture Capital-Backed Entrepreneurial Companies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(10), pages 3738-3772, October.
    30. Alex Edmans & Diego García & Øyvind Norli, 2007. "Sports Sentiment and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1967-1998, August.
    31. Augustin Landier & David Thesmar, 2009. "Financial Contracting with Optimistic Entrepreneurs," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 117-150, January.
    32. Campbell, T. Colin & Gallmeyer, Michael & Johnson, Shane A. & Rutherford, Jessica & Stanley, Brooke W., 2011. "CEO optimism and forced turnover," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 695-712, September.
    33. Meghan R. Busse & Devin G. Pope & Jaren C. Pope & Jorge Silva-Risso, 2015. "The Psychological Effect of Weather on Car Purchases," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(1), pages 371-414.
    34. Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate & Jon Yan, 2011. "Overconfidence and Early‐Life Experiences: The Effect of Managerial Traits on Corporate Financial Policies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(5), pages 1687-1733, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hirshleifer, David & Jiang, Danling & DiGiovanni, Yuting Meng, 2020. "Mood beta and seasonalities in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 272-295.
    2. Bertrand, Jérémie & Weill, Laurent, 2023. "Too sunny to borrow: Sunshine and borrower discouragement," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Sun, Qian & Cheng, Xiaoke & Gao, Shenghao & Chen, Tao & Liu, Jia, 2023. "Sunshine-induced mood and SEO pricing: Evidence from detailed investor bids in SEO auctions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Wu, Runze, 2022. "Sports Mood Index, institutional investors, and earnings announcement anomalies," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    5. Shafi, Kourosh & Mohammadi, Ali, 2020. "Too gloomy to invest: Weather-induced mood and crowdfunding," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cortés, Kristle & Duchin, Ran & Sosyura, Denis, 2016. "Clouded judgment: The role of sentiment in credit origination," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 392-413.
    2. Shafi, Kourosh & Mohammadi, Ali, 2020. "Too gloomy to invest: Weather-induced mood and crowdfunding," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Maggie Rong Hu & Adrian D. Lee, 2020. "Outshine to Outbid: Weather-Induced Sentiment and the Housing Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(3), pages 1440-1472, March.
    4. Samahita, Margaret & Holm, Håkan J., 2020. "Mining for Mood Effect in the Field," Working Papers 2020:2, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    5. David Hirshleife, 2015. "Behavioral Finance," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 133-159, December.
    6. Sun, Qian & Cheng, Xiaoke & Gao, Shenghao & Chen, Tao & Liu, Jia, 2023. "Sunshine-induced mood and SEO pricing: Evidence from detailed investor bids in SEO auctions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    7. Frühwirth, Manfred & Sögner, Leopold, 2015. "Weather and SAD related mood effects on the financial market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 11-31.
    8. Huang, Ronghong & Tan, Kelvin Jui Keng & Faff, Robert W., 2016. "CEO overconfidence and corporate debt maturity," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 93-110.
    9. Deshmukh, Sanjay & Goel, Anand M. & Howe, Keith M., 2021. "Do CEO beliefs affect corporate cash holdings?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    10. André Betzer & Inga Bongard & Felix Schweder & Erik Theissen & Christine Volkmann, 2023. "All is not lost that is delayed: overconfidence and investment outcomes," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 17(7), pages 2297-2324, October.
    11. Ulrike Malmendier & Vincenzo Pezone & Hui Zheng, 2023. "Managerial Duties and Managerial Biases," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(6), pages 3174-3201, June.
    12. Danso, Albert & Lartey, Theophilus & Amankwah-Amoah, Joseph & Adomako, Samuel & Lu, Qinye & Uddin, Moshfique, 2019. "Market sentiment and firm investment decision-making," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    13. Kaustia, Markku & Rantapuska, Elias, 2016. "Does mood affect trading behavior?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-26.
    14. Tuck Siong Chung & Angie Low & Roland T. Rust, 2023. "Executive confidence and myopic marketing management," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 51(5), pages 1118-1142, September.
    15. Li, Si & Perez, M. Fabricio, 2021. "The evolution of pay premiums for managerial attributes," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    16. Lin, Chih-Yung & Chen, Yehning & Ho, Po-Hsin & Yen, Ju-Fang, 2020. "CEO overconfidence and bank loan contracting," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    17. Duellman, Scott & Hurwitz, Helen & Sun, Yan, 2015. "Managerial overconfidence and audit fees," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 148-165.
    18. Lin, Tse-Chun & Pursiainen, Vesa, 2023. "Gender differences in reward-based crowdfunding," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    19. Otto, Clemens A., 2014. "CEO optimism and incentive compensation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 366-404.
    20. Chen, Sheng-Syan & Lin, Chih-Yen & Tsai, Yun-Ching, 2018. "New product strategies and firm performance: CEO optimism," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 37-53.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cloud cover; Mood; Small business managers; Firm investment behavior; Managerial optimism; State-level Business cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:132:y:2019:i:2:p:427-450. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.