Still want to be a doctor? Medical student dropout in the era of COVID-19

This research examines the intention of undergraduate medical students to withdraw from the medical profession and pursue a career in a different field upon graduation during COVID-19. We leverage the first and most comprehensive nationwide survey for medical education in China, which covered 98,668 enrolled undergraduate students from 90 out of 181 Chinese medical schools in 2020. We focus on these students’ self-reported intention to leave the healthcare industry (the “dropout intention”) before and after the outbreak of the epidemic. We also designed a randomized experiment to test whether and to what extent medical students dropout intention responded to an information nudge that highlighted the prosociality of health professionals in the fight against the virus. Results from a difference-in-differences model and a student fixed effect model suggest that after the onset of COVID-19, the proportion of Chinese undergraduate medical students with a dropout intention declined from 13.7% to 6.8%. Furthermore, the nudge information reduced the intent-to-drop-out probability by 0.8 additional percentage points for students in their early college years. There was large heterogeneity underneath the treatment effect. Specifically, we find that prior dropout intention and exposures to COVID-19-related information tended to mitigate the nudge effects. Data on students’ actual dropout outcomes support our findings.