Droughts, conflict, and the African slave trade

Historians have frequently suggested that droughts helped facilitate the African slave trade. By introducing a previously unused dataset on 19th century rainfall levels in Africa, I provide the first empirical examination of this hypothesis. I find a strong negative relationship between rainfall shocks and the number of slaves exported from a given region. I also find that extreme temperature shocks in either direction increase slave exports. Building on the detailed qualitative work of Dias (1981), Miller (1982), and others, I provide quantitative evidence for interethnic group conflict and more localized forms of violence being likely mechanisms through which these additional slaves were acquired. These results contribute to our understanding of the underlying economic conditions of the African slave trade.