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The impact of political cycle: Evidence from coalmine accidents in China

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  • Nie, Huihua
  • Jiang, Minjie
  • Wang, Xianghong

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of political cycle on coalmine accidents in China. The political cycle is formed by the major local meetings of legislative bodies held every year in all provinces of China. This is because the government has a strong incentive to maintain social stability during the meetings and to focus on economic growth in other times. We test how such cycles affect coalmine fatality using monthly data at the provincial level between 2000 and 2010. We find that the number of accidents and casualties were significantly lowered during the local events of “two sessions” after controlling for other time fixed effects. The temporary reduction of accidents seemed to have been achieved by controlling production rather than by improving safety measures. The magnitude of the cycle for accidents is enlarged in provinces where media exposure is stronger and where the vice governor in charge of safety is faced with a possible extension to another term in the current post.

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  • Nie, Huihua & Jiang, Minjie & Wang, Xianghong, 2013. "The impact of political cycle: Evidence from coalmine accidents in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 995-1011.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jcecon:v:41:y:2013:i:4:p:995-1011
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2013.04.002
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    8. Chu, Yin & Holladay, J. Scott & Qiu, Yun & Tian, Xian-Liang & Zhou, Maigeng, 2023. "Air Pollution and Mortality Impacts of Coal Mining: Evidence from Coalmine Accidents in China," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1302, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
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    17. Vortherms, Samantha A., 2019. "Disaggregating China’s local political budget cycles: “Righting” the U," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 95-109.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political cycle; Political business cycle; China; Coalmine accident;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H70 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • L51 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Economics of Regulation

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