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Co-movements of Shanghai and New York stock prices by time-varying regressions

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  • Chow, Gregory C.
  • Liu, Changjiang
  • Niu, Linlin
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    Abstract

    We use time-varying regression to model the relationship between returns in the Shanghai and New York stock markets, with possible inclusion of lagged returns. The parameters of the regressions reveal that the effect of current stock return of New York on Shanghai steadily increases after the 1997 Asian financial crisis and turns significantly and persistently positive after 2002 when China entered WTO. The effect of current return of Shanghai on New York also becomes significantly positive and increasing after 2002. The upward trend has been interrupted during the recent global financial crisis, but reaches the level of about 0.4–0.5 in 2010 for both markets. Our results show that China’s stock market has become more and more integrated to the world market in the past twenty years with interruptions occurring during the recent global economic downturn.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Comparative Economics.

    Volume (Year): 39 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 577-583

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jcecon:v:39:y:2011:i:4:p:577-583

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622864

    Related research

    Keywords: China; Globalization; Rate of return; Stock markets; Time-varying parameter regression;

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    References

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    1. Hwahsin Cheng & John Glascock, 2005. "Dynamic Linkages Between the Greater China Economic Area Stock Markets—Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 343-357, June.
    2. Takatoshi Ito & Robert F. Engle & Wen-Ling Lin, 1992. "Where Does the Meteor Shower Come From? The Role of Stochastic Policy Coordination," NBER Working Papers 3504, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Nicolaas Groenewold & Sam Hak Kan Tang & Yanrui Wu, 2002. "The Dynamic Interrelationships Between the Greater China Share Markets," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 02-02, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    4. Hong Li, 2007. "International linkages of the Chinese stock exchanges: a multivariate GARCH analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 285-297.
    5. repec:lan:wpaper:2452 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Gregory C. Chow & Caroline C. Lawler, 2003. "A Time Series Analysis of the Shanghai and New York Stock Price Indices," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 4(1), pages 17-35, May.
    7. Shenqiu Zhang & Ivan Paya & David Peel, 2009. "Linkages between Shanghai and Hong Kong stock indices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(23), pages 1847-1857.
    8. repec:lan:wpaper:2594 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:lan:wpaper:2371 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Robert F. Engle & Takatoshi Ito & Wen-Ling Lin, 1991. "Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-Daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 2609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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