IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbrese/v76y2017icp34-43.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Monetary policy, exchange rate fluctuation, and herding behavior in the stock market

Author

Listed:
  • Gong, Pu
  • Dai, Jun

Abstract

Interest rate and exchange rate are two important macroeconomic variables that exert considerable effects on the stock market. In this study, we investigate whether variations in interest and exchange rates induce herding behavior in the Chinese stock market. Empirical results indicate that interest rate increase and Chinese currency (CNY) depreciation will induce herding and this phenomenon is mainly manifested in down markets. Moreover, the herding level of the highest idiosyncratic volatility quintile portfolio is twice that of the lowest quintile portfolio which we consider evidence of intentional herding. This result is consistent with those of previous studies, which report that retail investors prefer and overweigh lottery-type stocks. Finally, we investigate the effects of monetary policy announcements and extreme exchange rate volatility on herding because these events elicit considerable public attention and may trigger collective behavior in the aggregate market.

Suggested Citation

  • Gong, Pu & Dai, Jun, 2017. "Monetary policy, exchange rate fluctuation, and herding behavior in the stock market," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 34-43.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbrese:v:76:y:2017:i:c:p:34-43
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2017.02.018
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148296317300796
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbusres.2017.02.018?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
    2. Chang, Eric C. & Cheng, Joseph W. & Khorana, Ajay, 2000. "An examination of herd behavior in equity markets: An international perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1651-1679, October.
    3. Phil Holmes & Vasileios Kallinterakis & M P Leite Ferreira, 2013. "Herding in a Concentrated Market: a Question of Intent," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 19(3), pages 497-520, June.
    4. Bali, Turan G. & Cakici, Nusret & Whitelaw, Robert F., 2011. "Maxing out: Stocks as lotteries and the cross-section of expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 427-446, February.
    5. Richard W. Sias, 2004. "Institutional Herding," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 165-206.
    6. Huang, Teng-Ching & Wu, Ching-Chih & Lin, Bing-Huei, 2016. "Institutional herding and risk–return relationship," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(6), pages 2073-2080.
    7. Thierry Foucault & David Sraer & David J. Thesmar, 2011. "Individual Investors and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1369-1406, August.
    8. Kumar, Alok & Page, Jeremy K. & Spalt, Oliver G., 2016. "Gambling and Comovement," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 85-111, February.
    9. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
    10. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    11. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "The Cross‐Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 259-299, February.
    12. Bernhardt, Dan & Campello, Murillo & Kutsoati, Edward, 2006. "Who herds?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 657-675, June.
    13. Demirer, RIza & Kutan, Ali M., 2006. "Does herding behavior exist in Chinese stock markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 123-142, April.
    14. Galariotis, Emilios C. & Rong, Wu & Spyrou, Spyros I., 2015. "Herding on fundamental information: A comparative study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 589-598.
    15. Yao, Juan & Ma, Chuanchan & He, William Peng, 2014. "Investor herding behaviour of Chinese stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 12-29.
    16. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    17. Choi, Nicole & Sias, Richard W., 2009. "Institutional industry herding," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 469-491, December.
    18. Alok Kumar, 2009. "Who Gambles in the Stock Market?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1889-1933, August.
    19. Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2006. "Exchange Rates, Equity Prices, and Capital Flows," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 273-317.
    20. Thorbecke, Willem, 1997. "On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 635-654, June.
    21. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    22. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    23. Mr. Sunil Sharma & Sushil Bikhchandani, 2000. "Herd Behavior in Financial Markets: A Review," IMF Working Papers 2000/048, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Han, Bing & Kumar, Alok, 2013. "Speculative Retail Trading and Asset Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 377-404, April.
    25. Hwang, Soosung & Salmon, Mark, 2004. "Market stress and herding," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 585-616, September.
    26. Chiang, Thomas C. & Zheng, Dazhi, 2010. "An empirical analysis of herd behavior in global stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1911-1921, August.
    27. Lin, Chien-Hsiu, 2012. "The comovement between exchange rates and stock prices in the Asian emerging markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 161-172.
    28. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Exchange Rates and the Current Account," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 960-971, December.
    29. Tan, Lin & Chiang, Thomas C. & Mason, Joseph R. & Nelling, Edward, 2008. "Herding behavior in Chinese stock markets: An examination of A and B shares," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(1-2), pages 61-77, January.
    30. Hilliard, Jitka & Zhang, Haoran, 2015. "Size and price-to-book effects: Evidence from the Chinese stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 40-55.
    31. Huang, Teng-Ching & Lin, Bing-Huei & Yang, Tung-Hsiao, 2015. "Herd behavior and idiosyncratic volatility," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(4), pages 763-770.
    32. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    33. Cho, Jin-Wan & Choi, Joung Hwa & Kim, Taeyong & Kim, Woojin, 2016. "Flight-to-quality and correlation between currency and stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 191-212.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Saadaoui Mallek, Ray & Albaity, Mohamed & Molyneux, Philip, 2022. "Herding behaviour heterogeneity under economic and political risks: Evidence from GCC," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 345-361.
    2. Chen, Lin & Wen, Fenghua & Li, Wanyang & Yin, Hua & Zhao, Lili, 2022. "Extreme risk spillover of the oil, exchange rate to Chinese stock market: Evidence from implied volatility indexes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    3. Puput Tri Komalasari & Marwan Asri & Bernardinus M. Purwanto & Bowo Setiyono, 2022. "Herding behaviour in the capital market: What do we know and what is next?," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(3), pages 745-787, September.
    4. Irwin, Kris & Gilstrap, Collin & McDowell, William & Drnevich, Paul & Gorbett, Abigail, 2022. "How knowledge and uncertainty affect strategic international business investment decisions: Implications for cross-border mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 831-842.
    5. Mustapha El hami & Ahmed Hefnaoui, 2019. "Analysis of Herding Behavior in Moroccan Stock Market," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 11(1), pages 181-190.
    6. Tian, Meiyu & Li, Wanyang & Wen, Fenghua, 2021. "The dynamic impact of oil price shocks on the stock market and the USD/RMB exchange rate: Evidence from implied volatility indices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    7. Yang-Chao Wang & Jui-Jung Tsai & Lanxin Lu, 2019. "The impact of Chinese monetary policy on co-movements between money and capital markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(45), pages 4939-4955, September.
    8. Wang, Hu & Li, Shouwei & Ma, Yuyin, 2021. "Herding in Open-end Funds: Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    9. Hang Zhang & Evangelos Giouvris, 2022. "Measures of Volatility, Crises, Sentiment and the Role of U.S. ‘Fear’ Index (VIX) on Herding in BRICS (2007–2021)," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-42, March.
    10. Huang, Chuangxia & Cai, Yaqian & Yang, Xiaoguang & Deng, Yanchen & Yang, Xin, 2023. "Laplacian-energy-like measure: Does it improve the Cross-Sectional Absolute Deviation herding model?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    11. Ahmed S. Alimi & Oladotun D. Olaniran, 2019. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Price - Exchange Rate Nexus: New Insights from Influential African Economies," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(2), pages 66-79, June.
    12. Papadamou, Stephanos & Kyriazis, Nikolaos A. & Tzeremes, Panayiotis & Corbet, Shaen, 2021. "Herding behaviour and price convergence clubs in cryptocurrencies during bull and bear markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    13. Syed Riaz Mahmood Ali, 2022. "Herding in different states and terms: evidence from the cryptocurrency market," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(4), pages 322-336, July.
    14. Oi-Ping Chong & A.N. Bany-Ariffin & Annuar Md Nassir & Junaina Muhammad, 2019. "An Empirical Study of Herding Behaviour in China’s A-Share and B-Share Markets: Evidence of Bidirectional Herding Activities," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 37-57.
    15. Armida Amado & Looi Mun Choon, 2020. "Impact of Changes in Exchange Rate on Stock Market: An Empirical Evidence from Indonesia," International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Accounting, Online Academic Press, vol. 7(1), pages 24-31.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Xinru & Kim, Maria H. & Suardi, Sandy, 2022. "Herding and China's market-wide circuit breaker," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    2. Arjoon, Vaalmikki & Bhatnagar, Chandra Shekhar & Ramlakhan, Prakash, 2020. "Herding in the Singapore stock Exchange," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    3. Duygun, Meryem & Tunaru, Radu & Vioto, Davide, 2021. "Herding by corporates in the US and the Eurozone through different market conditions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    4. Puput Tri Komalasari & Marwan Asri & Bernardinus M. Purwanto & Bowo Setiyono, 2022. "Herding behaviour in the capital market: What do we know and what is next?," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(3), pages 745-787, September.
    5. Yi-Chang Chen & Hung-Che Wu & Jen-Jsung Huang, 2017. "Herd Behavior and Rational Expectations: A Test of China's Market Using Quantile Regression," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 649-663.
    6. Liu, Tengdong & Zheng, Dazhi & Zheng, Suyan & Lu, Yang, 2023. "Herding in Chinese stock markets: Evidence from the dual-investor-group," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Economou, Fotini & Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Goyal, Abhinav & Kallinterakis, Vasileios, 2015. "Herding dynamics in exchange groups: Evidence from Euronext," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 228-244.
    8. Zheng, Dazhi & Li, Huimin & Zhu, Xiaowei, 2015. "Herding behavior in institutional investors: Evidence from China’s stock market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 32, pages 59-76.
    9. Ahmad Fawwaz Mohd Nasarudin & Bany Ariffin Amin Noordin & Siong Hook Law & Mohd Hisham Yahya, 2017. "Investigation of Herding Behaviour in Developed and Developing Countries: Does Country Governance Factor Matters?," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 1-14.
    10. Dina Gabbori & Basel Awartani & Aktham Maghyereh & Nader Virk, 2021. "OPEC meetings, oil market volatility and herding behaviour in the Saudi Arabia stock market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 870-888, January.
    11. Sayyed Sadaqat Hussain Shah & Muhammad Asif Khan & Natanya Meyer & Daniel F. Meyer & Judit Oláh, 2019. "Does Herding Bias Drive the Firm Value? Evidence from the Chinese Equity Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-20, October.
    12. Cui, Yueting & Gebka, Bartosz & Kallinterakis, Vasileios, 2019. "Do closed-end fund investors herd?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 194-206.
    13. Gong, Pu & Wen, Zhuzhu & Xiong, Xiong & Gong, Cynthia M., 2021. "When do investors gamble in the stock market?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    14. Humayun Kabir, M. & Shakur, Shamim, 2018. "Regime-dependent herding behavior in Asian and Latin American stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 60-78.
    15. Galariotis, Emilios C. & Rong, Wu & Spyrou, Spyros I., 2015. "Herding on fundamental information: A comparative study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 589-598.
    16. Wang, Hu & Li, Shouwei & Ma, Yuyin, 2021. "Herding in Open-end Funds: Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    17. Galariotis, Emilios C. & Krokida, Styliani-Iris & Spyrou, Spyros I., 2016. "Bond market investor herding: Evidence from the European financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 367-375.
    18. Indārs, Edgars Rihards & Savin, Aliaksei & Lublóy, Ágnes, 2019. "Herding behaviour in an emerging market: Evidence from the Moscow Exchange," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 468-487.
    19. Demirer, Rıza & Lien, Donald & Zhang, Huacheng, 2015. "Industry herding and momentum strategies," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 95-110.
    20. Saadaoui Mallek, Ray & Albaity, Mohamed & Molyneux, Philip, 2022. "Herding behaviour heterogeneity under economic and political risks: Evidence from GCC," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 345-361.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbrese:v:76:y:2017:i:c:p:34-43. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbusres .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.