IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/ijfiec/v26y2021i1p870-888.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

OPEC meetings, oil market volatility and herding behaviour in the Saudi Arabia stock market

Author

Listed:
  • Dina Gabbori
  • Basel Awartani
  • Aktham Maghyereh
  • Nader Virk

Abstract

We investigate the influence of oil market volatility and hand‐picked OPEC meetings data on herding tendency in the Saudi equity market. Our results show the presence of significant herding behaviour in the Saudi market; surprisingly this herding behaviour is independent of oil market volatility. Importantly, we find herding on and around the OPEC meeting days however this is only limited to a period of high global uncertainty that is, during the Global Financial Crisis period (GFC) of 2008–2010. However, when we filter out factor‐based herding in the Saudi equities, we also find persistent herding in the post GFC period. These results are consistent when we assess the impact of OPEC meetings using event windows of one to 5 days before and after the announcement. In consideration of the crucial role of OPEC in determining the oil prices, we explain our results of Saudi market herding on and around OPEC meeting days for the prior announcement ambiguity and corrections before, on and after the announcements on global supply. Our results show that this tendency has originated during the GFC, has persisted in the post‐GFC in the Saudi equities and surprisingly, is largely found absent in the periods when the Saudi equity market witnessed bullish market conditions. Our results are robust after accounting for common factor return variations in equity returns, the unconditional and conditional estimates of the volatility in oil prices and several event windows around OPEC meeting days.

Suggested Citation

  • Dina Gabbori & Basel Awartani & Aktham Maghyereh & Nader Virk, 2021. "OPEC meetings, oil market volatility and herding behaviour in the Saudi Arabia stock market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 870-888, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:26:y:2021:i:1:p:870-888
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.1825
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.1825
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/ijfe.1825?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chang, Eric C. & Cheng, Joseph W. & Khorana, Ajay, 2000. "An examination of herd behavior in equity markets: An international perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1651-1679, October.
    2. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1992. "The impact of institutional trading on stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-43, August.
    3. Alan Gregory & Richard D.F. Harris & Maria Michou, 2003. "Contrarian Investment and Macroeconomic Risk," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1‐2), pages 213-256, January.
    4. Bouri, Elie & Awartani, Basel & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2016. "Crude oil prices and sectoral stock returns in Jordan around the Arab uprisings of 2010," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 205-214.
    5. Kenneth A. Kim & John R. Nofsinger, 2005. "Institutional Herding, Business Groups, and Economic Regimes: Evidence from Japan," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 213-242, January.
    6. Richard W. Sias, 2004. "Institutional Herding," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 165-206.
    7. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
    8. Susan Sunila Sharma & Paresh Narayan & Kannan Thuraisamy, 2015. "Time-Varying Herding Behavior, Global Financial Crisis, and the Chinese Stock Market," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(02), pages 1-31.
    9. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    10. Trueman, Brett, 1994. "Analyst Forecasts and Herding Behavior," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(1), pages 97-124.
    11. Awartani, Basel & Maghyereh, Aktham Issa, 2013. "Dynamic spillovers between oil and stock markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 28-42.
    12. Marco G.D. Guidi & Alexander Russell & Heather Tarbert, 2006. "The effect of OPEC policy decisions on oil and stock prices," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 30(1), pages 1-18, March.
    13. Demirer, RIza & Kutan, Ali M., 2006. "Does herding behavior exist in Chinese stock markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 123-142, April.
    14. John M. Griffin & Patrick J. Kelly & Federico Nardari, 2010. "Do Market Efficiency Measures Yield Correct Inferences? A Comparison of Developed and Emerging Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(8), pages 3225-3277, August.
    15. Awartani, Basel & Aktham, Maghyereh & Cherif, Guermat, 2016. "The connectedness between crude oil and financial markets: Evidence from implied volatility indices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 56-69.
    16. Galariotis, Emilios C. & Rong, Wu & Spyrou, Spyros I., 2015. "Herding on fundamental information: A comparative study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 589-598.
    17. Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Kallinterakis, Vasileios & Tsalavoutas, Ioannis, 2016. "Investor mood, herding and the Ramadan effect," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(S), pages 23-38.
    18. Aktham Maghyereh & Basel Awartani, 2016. "Oil price uncertainty and equity returns," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 8(1), pages 64-79, April.
    19. Park, Jungwook & Ratti, Ronald A., 2008. "Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2587-2608, September.
    20. Economou, Fotini & Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Kallinterakis, Vasileios & Yordanov, Nikolay, 2015. "Do fund managers herd in frontier markets — and why?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 76-87.
    21. Mr. Sunil Sharma & Sushil Bikhchandani, 2000. "Herd Behavior in Financial Markets: A Review," IMF Working Papers 2000/048, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Hedi Arouri, Mohamed El & Khuong Nguyen, Duc, 2010. "Oil prices, stock markets and portfolio investment: Evidence from sector analysis in Europe over the last decade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4528-4539, August.
    23. Klein, Arne C., 2013. "Time-variations in herding behavior: Evidence from a Markov switching SUR model," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 291-304.
    24. Hwang, Soosung & Salmon, Mark, 2004. "Market stress and herding," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 585-616, September.
    25. Chiang, Thomas C. & Zheng, Dazhi, 2010. "An empirical analysis of herd behavior in global stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1911-1921, August.
    26. Balcılar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Ulussever, Talat, 2017. "Does speculation in the oil market drive investor herding in emerging stock markets?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 50-63.
    27. repec:icf:icfjaf:v:19:y:2013:i:2:p:5-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    29. Russ Wermers, 1999. "Mutual Fund Herding and the Impact on Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 581-622, April.
    30. James A. Bennett, 2003. "Greener Pastures and the Impact of Dynamic Institutional Preferences," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(4), pages 1203-1238.
    31. Lam, Keith S.K. & Qiao, Zhuo, 2015. "Herding and fundamental factors: The Hong Kong experience," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 160-188.
    32. Balcilar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2014. "What drives herding in oil-rich, developing stock markets? Relative roles of own volatility and global factors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 418-440.
    33. Tan, Lin & Chiang, Thomas C. & Mason, Joseph R. & Nelling, Edward, 2008. "Herding behavior in Chinese stock markets: An examination of A and B shares," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(1-2), pages 61-77, January.
    34. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan & Wermers, Russ, 1995. "Momentum Investment Strategies, Portfolio Performance, and Herding: A Study of Mutual Fund Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1088-1105, December.
    35. Balcilar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2013. "Investor herds and regime-switching: Evidence from Gulf Arab stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 295-321.
    36. Rahman, M. Arifur & Chowdhury, Shah Saeed Hassan & Shibley Sadique, M., 2015. "Herding where retail investors dominate trading: The case of Saudi Arabia," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 46-60.
    37. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    38. John R. Nofsinger & Richard W. Sias, 1999. "Herding and Feedback Trading by Institutional and Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2263-2295, December.
    39. Youssef, Mouna & Mokni, Khaled, 2018. "On the effect of herding behavior on dependence structure between stock markets: Evidence from GCC countries," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 52-63.
    40. Demirer, Riza & Kutan, Ali M. & Chen, Chun-Da, 2010. "Do investors herd in emerging stock markets?: Evidence from the Taiwanese market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 283-295, November.
    41. Ozgur S. Ince & R. Burt Porter, 2006. "Individual Equity Return Data From Thomson Datastream: Handle With Care!," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 29(4), pages 463-479, December.
    42. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Nikolaos Philippas & Fotini Economou, 2008. "Herding behaviour in extreme market conditions: the case of the Athens Stock Exchange," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(17), pages 1-13.
    43. Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Awartani, Basel & Bouri, Elie, 2016. "The directional volatility connectedness between crude oil and equity markets: New evidence from implied volatility indexes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 78-93.
    44. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2008:i:17:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Puput Tri Komalasari & Marwan Asri & Bernardinus M. Purwanto & Bowo Setiyono, 2022. "Herding behaviour in the capital market: What do we know and what is next?," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(3), pages 745-787, September.
    2. Humayun Kabir, M. & Shakur, Shamim, 2018. "Regime-dependent herding behavior in Asian and Latin American stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 60-78.
    3. Arjoon, Vaalmikki & Bhatnagar, Chandra Shekhar & Ramlakhan, Prakash, 2020. "Herding in the Singapore stock Exchange," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    4. Indārs, Edgars Rihards & Savin, Aliaksei & Lublóy, Ágnes, 2019. "Herding behaviour in an emerging market: Evidence from the Moscow Exchange," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 468-487.
    5. Guney, Yilmaz & Kallinterakis, Vasileios & Komba, Gabriel, 2017. "Herding in frontier markets: Evidence from African stock exchanges," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 152-175.
    6. Balcılar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Ulussever, Talat, 2017. "Does speculation in the oil market drive investor herding in emerging stock markets?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 50-63.
    7. Wang, Xinru & Kim, Maria H. & Suardi, Sandy, 2022. "Herding and China's market-wide circuit breaker," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    8. Yi-Chang Chen & Hung-Che Wu & Jen-Jsung Huang, 2017. "Herd Behavior and Rational Expectations: A Test of China's Market Using Quantile Regression," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 649-663.
    9. Papapostolou, Nikos C. & Pouliasis, Panos K. & Kyriakou, Ioannis, 2017. "Herd behavior in the drybulk market: an empirical analysis of the decision to invest in new and retire existing fleet capacity," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 36-51.
    10. Galariotis, Emilios C. & Rong, Wu & Spyrou, Spyros I., 2015. "Herding on fundamental information: A comparative study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 589-598.
    11. Galariotis, Emilios C. & Krokida, Styliani-Iris & Spyrou, Spyros I., 2016. "Bond market investor herding: Evidence from the European financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 367-375.
    12. Duygun, Meryem & Tunaru, Radu & Vioto, Davide, 2021. "Herding by corporates in the US and the Eurozone through different market conditions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    13. Babalos, Vassilios & Stavroyiannis, Stavros & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Do commodity investors herd? Evidence from a time-varying stochastic volatility model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 281-287.
    14. Cheng, Tingting & Xing, Shuo & Yao, Wenying, 2022. "An examination of herding behaviour of the Chinese mutual funds: A time-varying perspective," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    15. Pegah Dehghani & Ros Zam Zam Sapian, 2014. "Sectoral herding behavior in the aftermarket of Malaysian IPOs," Venture Capital, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 227-246, July.
    16. Lee, Kyuseok, 2017. "Herd behavior of the overall market: Evidence based on the cross-sectional comovement of returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 266-284.
    17. Liu, Tengdong & Zheng, Dazhi & Zheng, Suyan & Lu, Yang, 2023. "Herding in Chinese stock markets: Evidence from the dual-investor-group," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    18. Andrikopoulos, Panagiotis & Gebka, Bartosz & Kallinterakis, Vasileios, 2021. "Regulatory mood-congruence and herding: Evidence from cannabis stocks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 842-864.
    19. Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer & Talat Ulussever, 2016. "Does speculation in the oil market drive investor herding in net exporting nations?," Working Papers 15-29, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    20. Ramzi Benkraiem & Mondher Bouattour & Emilios Galariotis & Anthony Miloudi, 2021. "Do investors in SMEs herd? Evidence from French and UK equity markets," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1619-1637, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:26:y:2021:i:1:p:870-888. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.