IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v61y2015icp301-315.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Loan Loss Provisioning Rules, Procyclicality, and Financial Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Agénor, Pierre-Richard
  • Zilberman, Roy

Abstract

Interactions between loan-loss provisioning regimes and business cycle fluctuations are studied in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with credit market imperfections. With a specific provisioning system, provisions are triggered by past due payments. With a dynamic system, both past due payments and expected losses over the whole business cycle are accounted for, and provisions are smoothed over the cycle. Numerical experiments with a parameterized version of the model show that a dynamic provisioning regime can be highly effective in mitigating procyclicality of the financial system. The results also indicate that the combination of a credit gap-augmented Taylor rule and a dynamic provisioning system with full smoothing may be the most effective way to mitigate real and financial volatility associated with financial shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Zilberman, Roy, 2015. "Loan Loss Provisioning Rules, Procyclicality, and Financial Volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 301-315.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:61:y:2015:i:c:p:301-315
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2015.08.035
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426615002630
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2015.08.035?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel Perez & Vicente Salas-Fumas & Jesus Saurina, 2008. "Earnings and Capital Management in Alternative Loan Loss Provision Regulatory Regimes," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 423-445.
    2. Carl Walsh, 2003. "Speed Limit Policies: The Output Gap and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 265-278, March.
    3. Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2003. "Loan loss provisioning and economic slowdowns: too much, too late?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 178-197, April.
    4. R. P. Agenor & K. Alper & L. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Capital Regulation, Monetary Policy, and Financial Stability," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 198-243, September.
    5. Agénor, P.-R. & Alper, K. & Pereira da Silva, L., 2012. "Capital requirements and business cycles with credit market imperfections," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 687-705.
    6. Rupa Duttagupta & Mr. Paul Cashin, 2008. "The Anatomy of Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 2008/093, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Bikker, J.A. & Metzemakers, P.A.J., 2005. "Bank provisioning behaviour and procyclicality," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 141-157, April.
    8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    9. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José-Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2017. "Macroprudential Policy, Countercyclical Bank Capital Buffers, and Credit Supply: Evidence from the Spanish Dynamic Provisioning Experiments," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(6), pages 2126-2177.
    10. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2005. "Cross-Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress: A Survey," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 192, pages 68-83, April.
    11. Gerard Caprio, 2011. "Safe and Sound Banking: A Role for Countercyclical Regulatory Requirements?," Chapters, in: Sylvester Eijffinger & Donato Masciandaro (ed.), Handbook of Central Banking, Financial Regulation and Supervision, chapter 14, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Shrieves, Ronald E. & Dahl, Drew, 1992. "The relationship between risk and capital in commercial banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 439-457, April.
    13. Frank Packer & Haibin Zhu, 2012. "Loan loss provisioning practices of Asian banks," BIS Working Papers 375, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Paolo Angelini & Stefano Neri & Fabio Panetta, 2011. "Monetary and macroprudential policies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 801, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
    16. Ross Levine & Norman Loayza & Thorsten Beck, 2002. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 031-084, Central Bank of Chile.
    17. Beatty, Anne & Liao, Scott, 2011. "Do delays in expected loss recognition affect banks' willingness to lend?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 1-20, June.
    18. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    19. Bouvatier, Vincent & Lepetit, Laetitia, 2012. "Provisioning rules and bank lending: A theoretical model," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 25-31.
    20. Rafael Repullo & Jesús Saurina, 2011. "The Countercyclical Capital Buffer of Basel III: A Critical Assessment," Working Papers wp2011_1102, CEMFI, revised Jun 2011.
    21. Torsten Wezel & Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Mr. Francesco Columba, 2012. "Dynamic Loan Loss Provisioning: Simulationson Effectiveness and Guide to Implementation," IMF Working Papers 2012/110, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Barth, James R. & Caprio, Gerard Jr. & Levine, Ross, 2004. "Bank regulation and supervision: what works best?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 205-248, April.
    23. John R. Walter, 1991. "Loan loss reserves," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 77(Jul), pages 20-30.
    24. Eliana Balla & Jessica Sackett Romero & Morgan J. Rose, 2012. "Loan loss reserve accounting and bank behavior," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Mar.
    25. Rebel Cole & Lawrence White, 2012. "Déjà Vu All Over Again: The Causes of U.S. Commercial Bank Failures This Time Around," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 5-29, October.
    26. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    27. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2012. "Macroeconomic Stability, Financial Stability, and Monetary Policy Rules," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 205-224, June.
    28. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 226-265, January.
    29. Davis, E. Philip & Zhu, Haibin, 2009. "Commercial property prices and bank performance," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 1341-1359, November.
    30. Santiago Fernandez de Lis & Alicia Garcia-Herrero, 2013. "Dynamic Provisioning: A Buffer Rather Than a Countercyclical Tool?," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 35-67, January.
    31. Athanasoglou, Panayiotis P. & Daniilidis, Ioannis & Delis, Manthos D., 2014. "Bank procyclicality and output: Issues and policies," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 58-83.
    32. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Koray Alper, 2012. "Monetary shocks and central bank liquidity with credit market imperfections," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(3), pages 563-591, July.
    33. Anthony Coleman & Neil Esho & Ian Sharpe, 2006. "Does Bank Monitoring Influence Loan Contract Terms?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 30(2), pages 177-198, October.
    34. Jin, Justin Yiqiang & Kanagaretnam, Kiridaran & Lobo, Gerald J., 2011. "Ability of accounting and audit quality variables to predict bank failure during the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2811-2819, November.
    35. Ms. Mwanza Nkusu, 2011. "Nonperforming Loans and Macrofinancial Vulnerabilities in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2011/161, International Monetary Fund.
    36. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Leonardo Gambacorta & Gabriel Jiminez & Carlos Trucharte, 2010. "Countercyclical capital buffers: exploring options," BIS Working Papers 317, Bank for International Settlements.
    37. Torsten Wezel, 2010. "Dynamic Loan Loss Provisions in Uruguay: Properties, Shock Absorption Capacity and Simulations Using Alternative Formulas," IMF Working Papers 2010/125, International Monetary Fund.
    38. Mr. In W Song, 2002. "Collateral in Loan Classification and Provisioning," IMF Working Papers 2002/122, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Pereira da Silva, Luiz, 2017. "Cyclically adjusted provisions and financial stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 143-162.
    2. Ebrahimi Kahou, Mahdi & Lehar, Alfred, 2017. "Macroprudential policy: A review," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 92-105.
    3. repec:lan:wpaper:68464009 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Pereira da Silva, Luiz, 2017. "Cyclically adjusted provisions and financial stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 143-162.
    5. Tayler, William & Zilberman, Roy, 2014. "Macroprudential Regulation and the Role of Monetary Policy," Dynare Working Papers 37, CEPREMAP.
    6. Małgorzata Olszak & Iwona Kowalska & Patrycja Chodnicka-Jaworska & Filip Świtała, 2020. "Do cyclicality of loan-loss provisions and income smoothing matter for the capital crunch – the case of commercial banks in Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 51(4), pages 383-436.
    7. Alessi, Lucia & Bruno, Brunella & Carletti, Elena & Neugebauer, Katja, 2019. "What drives bank coverage ratios: Evidence from the euro area," Working Papers 2019-14, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    8. Athanasoglou, Panayiotis P. & Daniilidis, Ioannis & Delis, Manthos D., 2014. "Bank procyclicality and output: Issues and policies," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 58-83.
    9. Malgorzata Olszak & Patrycja Chodnicka-Jaworska & Iwona Kowalska & Filip Œwita³a, 2017. "The effect of capital ratio on lending: Do loan-loss provisioning practices matter?," Faculty of Management Working Paper Series 22017, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management.
    10. Tayler, William J. & Zilberman, Roy, 2016. "Macroprudential regulation, credit spreads and the role of monetary policy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 144-158.
    11. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    12. Harry Huizinga & Luc Laeven, 2019. "The Procyclicality of Banking: Evidence from the Euro Area," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(3), pages 496-527, September.
    13. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Pereira da Silva, Luiz A., 2014. "Macroprudential regulation and the monetary transmission mechanism," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 44-63.
    14. Manuela M. Dantas & Kenneth J. Merkley & Felipe B. G. Silva, 2023. "Government Guarantees and Banks' Income Smoothing," Papers 2303.03661, arXiv.org.
    15. Ozili, Peterson K, 2017. "Bank Loan Loss Provisions Research: A Review," MPRA Paper 76495, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Guangling Liu & Thabang Molise, 2020. "The Optimal Monetary and Macroprudential Policies for the South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(3), pages 368-404, September.
    17. Bholat, David & Lastra, Rosa & Markose, Sheri & Miglionico, Andrea & Sen, Kallol, 2016. "Non-performing loans: regulatory and accounting treatments of assets," Bank of England working papers 594, Bank of England.
    18. Badarau, Cristina & Popescu, Alexandra, 2014. "Monetary policy and credit cycles: A DSGE analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 301-312.
    19. Malovaná Simona & Tesařová Žaneta, 2022. "Banks’ Credit Losses and Provisioning over the Business Cycle: Implications for IFRS," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 22(1), pages 53-74, March.
    20. Albaity, Mohamed & Noman, Abu Hanifa Md. & Saadaoui Mallek, Ray & Al-Shboul, Mohammad, 2022. "Cyclicality of bank credit growth: Conventional vs Islamic banks in the GCC," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(1).
    21. Leonardo Nogueira Ferreira & Márcio Issao Nakane, 2018. "Macroprudential policy in a DSGE model: anchoring the countercyclical capital buffer," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(4), pages 2345-2352.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Loan-loss provisioning systems; DSGE models; Financial volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:61:y:2015:i:c:p:301-315. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.