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Two to tangle: Financial development, political instability and economic growth in Argentina

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Author Info

  • Campos, Nauro F.
  • Karanasos, Menelaos G.
  • Tan, Bin

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of financial liberalization on economic growth. It contributes to this literature by using an innovative econometric methodology and a unique data set of historical series. It presents power ARCH estimates for Argentina for the period from 1896 to 2000. The main results show that the long-run effect of financial liberalization on economic growth is positive while the short-run effect is negative, albeit substantially smaller. Interestingly, we find that financial development affects growth only directly, that is, not through growth volatility.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 36 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 290-304

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:36:y:2012:i:1:p:290-304

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

Related research

Keywords: Economic growth; Financial development; Volatility; Political instability; Power-ARCH;

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References

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  1. Nauro F. Campos & Menelaos G. Karanasos, 2007. "Growth, Volatility and Political Instability: Non-Linear Time-Series Evidence for Argentina, 1896-2000," CEDI Discussion Paper Series 07-12, Centre for Economic Development and Institutions(CEDI), Brunel University.
  2. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
  3. Loayza, Norman V. & Ranciere, Romain, 2006. "Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 1051-1076, June.
  4. Beck, T.H.L. & Levine, R. & Loayza, N., 2000. "Finance and the sources of growth," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3125520, Tilburg University.
  5. Leandro Prados de la Escosura & Isabel Sanz-Villarroya, 2009. "Contract enforcement, capital accumulation, and Argentina's long-run decline," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 3(1), pages 1-26, January.
  6. Chang, Philip C. & Jia, Chunxin & Wang, Zhicheng, 2010. "Bank fund reallocation and economic growth: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2753-2766, November.
  7. Aiolfi, Marco & Catão, Luis A.V. & Timmermann, Allan, 2011. "Common factors in Latin America's business cycles," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 212-228, July.
  8. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
  9. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
  10. Grier, Kevin B. & Tullock, Gordon, 1989. "An empirical analysis of cross-national economic growth, 1951-1980," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 259-276, September.
  11. Serafeim Tsoukas, 2012. "Firm Survival and Financial Development: Evidence from a Panel of Emerging Asian Economies," Working Papers 142012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  12. Nauro F. Campos & Jeffrey B. Nugent, 2000. "Who is Afraid of Political Instability?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 326, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  13. Fountas, Stilianos & Karanasos, Menelaos, 2007. "Inflation, output growth, and nominal and real uncertainty: Empirical evidence for the G7," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 229-250, March.
  14. Ross Levine, 2004. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 10766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Sanz-Villarroya, Isabel, 2005. "The convergence process of Argentina with Australia and Canada: 1875-2000," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 439-458, July.
  16. Johnson, Paul & Durlauf, Steven N & Temple, Johnathan R. W., 2004. "Growth Econometrics," Vassar College Department of Economics Working Paper Series 61, Vassar College Department of Economics.
    • Durlauf, Steven N. & Johnson, Paul A. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2005. "Growth Econometrics," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 555-677 Elsevier.
  17. Céline Gimet & Thomas Lagoarde-Segot, 2011. "A closer look at financial development and income distribution," Post-Print halshs-00564641, HAL.
  18. Shields, KalvInder & Kevin B Grier & Olan T Henry & Nilss Olekalns, 2003. "The Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty on Inflation and Output Growth," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 187, Royal Economic Society.
  19. Umutlu, Mehmet & Akdeniz, Levent & Altay-Salih, Aslihan, 2010. "The degree of financial liberalization and aggregated stock-return volatility in emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 509-521, March.
  20. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, 04.
  21. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521855266 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Conrad, Christian & Karanasos, Menelaos & Zeng, Ning, 2010. "The link between macroeconomic performance and variability in the UK," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 154-157, March.
  23. Taylor, Alan M., 1992. "External Dependence, Demographic Burdens, and Argentine Economic Decline After the Belle Époque," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(04), pages 907-936, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Menelaos Karanasos & Alexandros Paraskevopoulos & Faek Menla Ali & Michail Karoglou & Stavroula Yfanti, 2014. "Modelling Returns and Volatilities During Financial Crises: a Time Varying Coefficient Approach," Papers 1403.7179, arXiv.org.

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