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Growth, volatility and political instability: Non-linear time-series evidence for Argentina, 1896-2000

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  • Campos, Nauro F.
  • Karanasos, Menelaos G.

Abstract

We investigate the growth volatility-political instability relationship in a power-ARCH framework (for Argentina, 1896-2000). Main finding is that while "informal" political instability (e.g., assassinations) has a direct negative effect on economic growth, "formal" instability has an indirect impact (through growth volatility).

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 100 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (July)
Pages: 135-137

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:100:y:2008:i:1:p:135-137

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References

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  1. Nauro F. Campos & Jeffrey B. Nugent, 2001. "Who Is Afraid Of Political Instability?," Development and Comp Systems 0012016, EconWPA.
  2. Kevin B. Grier & �lan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2004. "The asymmetric effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 551-565.
  3. Durlauf,S.N. & Johnson,P.A. & Temple,J.R.W., 2004. "Growth econometrics," Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems 18, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    • Durlauf, Steven N. & Johnson, Paul A. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2005. "Growth Econometrics," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 555-677 Elsevier.
  4. James Murdoch & Todd Sandler, 2002. "Civil wars and economic growth: A regional comparison," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(6), pages 451-464.
  5. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
  6. Fountas, Stilianos & Karanasos, Menelaos, 2007. "Inflation, output growth, and nominal and real uncertainty: Empirical evidence for the G7," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 229-250, March.
  7. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
  8. Asteriou, Dimitrios & Price, Simon, 2001. "Political Instability and Economic Growth: UK Time Series Evidence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(4), pages 383-99, September.
  9. Karanasos, Menelaos & Kim, Jinki, 2006. "A re-examination of the asymmetric power ARCH model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 113-128, January.
  10. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521855266 is not listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
  1. Jacek Rothert, 2009. "Monitoring, Moral Hazard and Turnover," Department of Economics Working Papers, The University of Texas at Austin, Department of Economics 130124, The University of Texas at Austin, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2012.
  2. Campos, Nauro F & Karanasos, Menelaos & Tan, Bin, 2008. "Two to Tangle: Financial Development, Political Instability and Economic Growth in Argentina (1896-2000)," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 7004, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Christian Conrad & Menelaos Karanasos & Ning Zeng, 2008. "Multivariate Fractionally Integrated APARCH Modeling of Stock Market Volatility: A multi-country study," Working Papers 0472, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2008.
  4. Hartwell , Christopher A., 2014. "The impact of institutional volatility on financial volatility in transition economies: a GARCH family approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition 6/2014, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  5. Campos, Nauro F. & Karanasos, Menelaos G. & Tan, Bin, 2012. "Two to tangle: Financial development, political instability and economic growth in Argentina," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 290-304.

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