IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v134y2022ics0378426621002685.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Housing networks and driving forces

Author

Listed:
  • Hurn, Stan
  • Shi, Shuping
  • Wang, Ben

Abstract

This paper investigates patterns in housing market networks using Australian and Chinese data and a novel econometric approach based on pairwise time-varying Granger causality tests. The focus is on four fundamental questions. (1) Have housing markets become increasingly connected over time? (2) Does housing market connectivity increase or decrease with house prices? (3) Are socio-economic and geographic proximity important for housing market connections? (4) Do economic fundamentals or sentiment drive connectivity? The results reveal interesting differences in these markets and suggest that one size is not likely to fit all in terms of housing market policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Hurn, Stan & Shi, Shuping & Wang, Ben, 2022. "Housing networks and driving forces," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:134:y:2022:i:c:s0378426621002685
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106318
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426621002685
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106318?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1043-1078, November.
    2. Xiaojin Sun & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2013. "Housing Markets, Regulations and Monetary Policy," Working Papers e07-45, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Hanming Fang & Quanlin Gu & Wei Xiong & Li-An Zhou, 2016. "Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 105-166.
    4. Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2016. "Hot property in New Zealand: Empirical evidence of housing bubbles in the metropolitan centres," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 88-113, April.
    5. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    6. Geert Bekaert & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud Mehl, 2014. "The Global Crisis and Equity Market Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2597-2649, December.
    7. Rangan Gupta & Stephen Miller, 2012. "“Ripple effects” and forecasting home prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 48(3), pages 763-782, June.
    8. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2011. "EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 201-226, February.
    9. Mark J. Holmes & Arthur Grimes, 2008. "Is There Long-run Convergence among Regional House Prices in the UK?," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 45(8), pages 1531-1544, July.
    10. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Marco E Terrones, 2013. "Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 119-166.
    11. repec:taf:jnlbes:v:30:y:2012:i:2:p:212-228 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Billio, Monica & Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2012. "Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 535-559.
    13. Sylvain Benoit & Jean-Edouard Colliard & Christophe Hurlin & Christophe Pérignon, 2017. "Where the Risks Lie: A Survey on Systemic Risk," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 109-152.
    14. Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2011. "Dating the timeline of financial bubbles during the subprime crisis," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(3), pages 455-491, November.
    15. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 858, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    16. John Cotter & Stuart Gabriel & Richard Roll, 2015. "Can Housing Risk Be Diversified? A Cautionary Tale from the Housing Boom and Bust," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 913-936.
    17. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Limit Theory Of Real‐Time Detectors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1079-1134, November.
    18. Bing Zhu & Roland Füss & Nico B. Rottke, 2013. "Spatial Linkages in Returns and Volatilities among U.S. Regional Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 41(1), pages 29-64, March.
    19. Shi, Shuping, 2017. "Speculative bubbles or market fundamentals? An investigation of US regional housing markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 101-111.
    20. Landier, Augustin & Sraer, David & Thesmar, David, 2017. "Banking integration and house price co-movement," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 1-25.
    21. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    22. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1988. " Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 661-676, July.
    23. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Angela Ng, 2005. "Market Integration and Contagion," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 39-70, January.
    24. Meese Richard & Wallace Nancy, 1994. "Testing the Present Value Relation for Housing Prices: Should I Leave My House in San Francisco?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 245-266, May.
    25. Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2016. "CoVaR," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1705-1741, July.
      • Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2008. "CoVaR," Staff Reports 348, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
      • Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2011. "CoVaR," NBER Working Papers 17454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Campbell, Sean D. & Davis, Morris A. & Gallin, Joshua & Martin, Robert F., 2009. "What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent-price ratio," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 90-102, September.
    27. Shuping Shi & Peter C. B. Phillips & Stan Hurn, 2018. "Change Detection and the Causal Impact of the Yield Curve," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 966-987, November.
    28. Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez & Juliana Gamboa-Arbeláez & Jorge Hirs-Garzón & Andrés Pinchao-Rosero, 2018. "When Bubble Meets Bubble: Contagion in OECD Countries," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 546-566, May.
    29. Bingduo Yang & Wei Long & Liang Peng & Zongwu Cai, 2020. "Testing the Predictability of U.S. Housing Price Index Returns Based on an IVX-AR Model," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 115(532), pages 1598-1619, December.
    30. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    31. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    32. Robert J. Shiller, 2015. "Irrational Exuberance," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 3, number 10421.
    33. Acharya, Viral V. & Cooley, Thomas & Richardson, Matthew & Walter, Ingo, 2010. "Manufacturing Tail Risk: A Perspective on the Financial Crisis of 2007–2009," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 4(4), pages 247-325, April.
    34. Dennis Tao Yang & Junsen Zhang & Shaojie Zhou, 2012. "Why Are Saving Rates So High in China?," NBER Chapters, in: Capitalizing China, pages 249-278, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Michael Bailey & Ruiqing Cao & Theresa Kuchler & Johannes Stroebel, 2016. "Social Networks and Housing Markets," NBER Working Papers 22258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Lee, Ji Hyung & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2016. "Asset pricing with financial bubble risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 590-622.
    37. Johannes Stroebel, 2016. "Social Networks and Housing Market Investments," 2016 Meeting Papers 485, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    38. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1043-1078, November.
    39. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2009. "Momentum Traders in the Housing Market: Survey Evidence and a Search Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 406-411, May.
    40. Jose M. Berrospide & Lamont K. Black & William R. Keeton, 2016. "The Cross‐Market Spillover of Economic Shocks through Multimarket Banks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(5), pages 957-988, August.
    41. Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
    42. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Limit Theory Of Real‐Time Detectors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1079-1134, November.
    43. Sylvain Benoit & Jean-Edouard Colliard & Christophe Hurlin & Christophe Pérignon, 2017. "Where the Risks Lie: A Survey on Systemic Risk," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 109-152.
    44. DeFusco, Anthony & Ding, Wenjie & Ferreira, Fernando & Gyourko, Joseph, 2018. "The role of price spillovers in the American housing boom," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 72-84.
    45. Swanson, Norman R., 1998. "Money and output viewed through a rolling window," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 455-474, May.
    46. Martin Schneider & Monika Piazzesi, 2009. "Momentum traders in a search model of the housing market," 2009 Meeting Papers 1266, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    47. Dayong Zhang & Gang-Zhi Fan, 2019. "Regional spillover and rising connectedness in China’s urban housing prices," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(6), pages 861-873, June.
    48. Shuping Shi & Arafat Rahman & Ben Zhe Wang, 2020. "Australian Housing Market Booms: Fundamentals or Speculation?☆," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(315), pages 381-401, December.
    49. Rama Cont & Eric Schaanning, 2017. "Fire sales, indirect contagion and systemic stress testing," Working Paper 2017/2, Norges Bank.
    50. Alexandros Kostakis & Tassos Magdalinos & Michalis P. Stamatogiannis, 2015. "Robust Econometric Inference for Stock Return Predictability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(5), pages 1506-1553.
    51. Thoma, Mark A., 1994. "Subsample instability and asymmetries in money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 279-306.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jian Yang & Meng Tong & Ziliang Yu, 2023. "Can volume be more informative than prices? Evidence from Chinese housing markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 633-672, August.
    2. Wang, Wen-Kai & Lin, Che-Chun & Tsai, I-Chun, 2022. "Long- and short-term price behaviors in presale housing markets in Taiwan," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 350-364.
    3. José-Francisco Vergara-Perucich, 2022. "Is There Financialization of Housing Prices? Empirical Evidence from Santiago de Chile," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-14, May.
    4. Cheng-Wen Lee & Shu-Hen Chiang & Zhong-Qin Wen, 2023. "Pursuing the Sustainability of Real Estate Market: The Case of Chinese Land Resources Diversification," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-19, March.
    5. Yuan, Ying & Wang, Haiying & Jin, Xiu, 2022. "Pandemic-driven financial contagion and investor behavior: Evidence from the COVID-19," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shuping Shi & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2023. "Diagnosing housing fever with an econometric thermometer," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 159-186, February.
    2. Yang, Bingduo & Long, Wei & Yang, Zihui, 2022. "Testing predictability of stock returns under possible bubbles," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 246-260.
    3. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo & Sanin-Restrepo, Sebastian, 2018. "The maple bubble: A history of migration among Canadian provinces," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 57-71.
    4. Shuping Shi & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2022. "Econometric Analysis of Asset Price Bubbles," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2331, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    5. Chiang, Shu-hen & Chen, Chien-Fu, 2022. "From systematic to systemic risk among G7 members: Do the stock or real estate markets matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Hong, Yanran & Wang, Lu & Ye, Xiaoqing & Zhang, Yaojie, 2022. "Dynamic asymmetric impact of equity market uncertainty on energy markets: A time-varying causality analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 535-546.
    7. Fromentin, Vincent, 2022. "Time-varying causality between stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals: Connection or disconnection?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    8. Shuping Shi & Peter C. B. Phillips & Stan Hurn, 2018. "Change Detection and the Causal Impact of the Yield Curve," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 966-987, November.
    9. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein & Awartani, Basel, 2022. "Have returns and volatilities for financial assets responded to implied volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    10. Shi, Shuping, 2017. "Speculative bubbles or market fundamentals? An investigation of US regional housing markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 101-111.
    11. Aktham Maghyereh & Hussein Abdoh, 2022. "Bubble contagion effect between the main precious metals," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(1), pages 43-63, March.
    12. Madaleno, Mara & Dogan, Eyup & Taskin, Dilvin, 2022. "A step forward on sustainability: The nexus of environmental responsibility, green technology, clean energy and green finance," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    13. Congregado, Emilio & Esteve, Vicente, 2022. "Cointegration with structural changes and classical model of inflation in Spain, 1830–1998," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 376-388.
    14. Esteve Vicente & Prats Maria A., 2021. "Structural Breaks and Explosive Behavior in the Long-Run: The Case of Australian Real House Prices, 1870–2020," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 72-84, January.
    15. Christian Kubitza, 2021. "Tackling the Volatility Paradox: Spillover Persistence and Systemic Risk," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 079, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    16. Jean-Louis Bago & Koffi Akakpo & Imad Rherrad & Ernest Ouédraogo, 2021. "Volatility Spillover and International Contagion of Housing Bubbles," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-14, June.
    17. Yang, Hui & Ferrer, Román, 2023. "Explosive behavior in the Chinese stock market: A sectoral analysis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    18. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2021. "Simple tests for stock return predictability with good size and power properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 198-214.
    19. Xunfa Lu & Zhitao Ye & Kin Keung Lai & Hairong Cui & Xiao Lin, 2022. "Time-Varying Causalities in Prices and Volatilities between the Cross-Listed Stocks in Chinese Mainland and Hong Kong Stock Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-19, February.
    20. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing network; Granger causality; Connectivity; Fundamentals; Sentiment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R39 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Other
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:134:y:2022:i:c:s0378426621002685. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.