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Can housing risk be diversified? A cautionary tale from the housing boom and bust

Author

Listed:
  • John Cotter

    (UCD School of Business, University College Dublin and Anderson School of Management, University of California)

  • Stuart Gabriel

    (Anderson School of Management, University of California)

  • Richard Roll

    (California Institute of Technology)

Abstract

This study evaluates the effectiveness of geographic diversification in reducing housing investment risk. To characterize diversification potential, we estimate spatial correlation and integration among 401 US metropolitan housing markets. The 2000s boom brought a marked uptrend in housing market integration associated with eased residential lending standards and rapid growth in private mortgage securitization. As boom turned to bust, macro factors, including employment and income fundamentals, contributed importantly to the trending up in housing return integration. Portfolio simulations reveal substantially lower diversification potential and higher risk in the wake of increased market integration.

Suggested Citation

  • John Cotter & Stuart Gabriel & Richard Roll, 2014. "Can housing risk be diversified? A cautionary tale from the housing boom and bust," Working Papers 201412, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucd:wpaper:201412
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    integration; housing risk diversification; housing returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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