Forecasting the term structures of Treasury and corporate yields using dynamic Nelson-Siegel models
AbstractWe extend Diebold and Li’s dynamic Nelson-Siegel three-factor model to a broader empirical prospective by including the evaluation of the state space approach and by using nine different ratings for corporate bonds. We find that the dynamic Nelson-Siegel factor AR(1) model outperforms other competitors on the out-of-sample forecast accuracy, especially on the investment-grade bonds for the short-term forecast horizon and on the high-yield bonds for the long-term forecast horizon. The dynamic Nelson-Siegel factor state space model, however, becomes appealing on the high-yield bonds in the short-term forecast horizon, where the factor dynamics are more likely time-varying and parameter instability is more probable in the model specification.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.
Volume (Year): 27 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast
Term structures; Treasury yields; Corporate yields; Nelson-Siegel model; Factor model; AR(1); VAR(1); Out-of-sample forecasting evaluations;
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- Martin Gonzalez-Rozada & Martin sola & Constantino Hevia & Fabio Spagnolo, 2012.
"Estimating and Forecasting the Yield Curve Using a Markov Switching Dynamic Nelson and Siegel Model,"
Department of Economics Working Papers
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- Constantino Hevia & Martin Gonzalez-Rozada & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2014. "Estimating and Forecasting the Yield Curve Using a Markov Switching Dynamic Nelson and Siegel Model," BCAM Working Papers, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics 1403, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
- Kaya, Huseyin, 2013. "Forecasting the yield curve and the role of macroeconomic information in Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-7.
- Cem Ã‡akmakli, 2012. "Bayesian Semiparametric Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model," Working Paper Series, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis 59_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Sep 2012.
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