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Does social network sentiment influence the relationship between the S&P 500 and gold returns?

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  • Piñeiro-Chousa, Juan
  • López-Cabarcos, M. Ángeles
  • Pérez-Pico, Ada María
  • Ribeiro-Navarrete, Belén

Abstract

This study explored the relationship between investor sentiment (extracted from the StockTwits social network), the S&P 500 Index and gold returns. We investigated bilateral causality between gold prices and S&P 500 prices, the power of investor sentiment and gold returns to predict S&P 500 returns, and the influence of gold returns on S&P 500 volatility. We also considered whether the influence of sentiment varies according to the user's degree of experience. We considered the sentiment of messages that mentioned the S&P 500 Index and that users posted between 2012 and 2016. Granger causality analysis, ARIMA models and GARCH models were used for predicting S&P 500 Index returns and S&P 500 volatility. We observed a causal relationship between gold price and the S&P 500 Index. Our results also suggest that sentiment and gold returns predict S&P 500 Index returns. Finally, we observed that gold returns influence S&P 500 volatility and that the sentiment of experienced users affects S&P 500 returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Piñeiro-Chousa, Juan & López-Cabarcos, M. Ángeles & Pérez-Pico, Ada María & Ribeiro-Navarrete, Belén, 2018. "Does social network sentiment influence the relationship between the S&P 500 and gold returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 57-64.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:57:y:2018:i:c:p:57-64
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2018.02.005
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    15. Caferra, Rocco, 2022. "Sentiment spillover and price dynamics: Information flow in the cryptocurrency and stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 593(C).
    16. Ioannis E. Tsolas, 2020. "Precious Metal Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation: A Series Two-Stage DEA Modeling Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-13, April.
    17. M. Eren Akbiyik & Mert Erkul & Killian Kaempf & Vaiva Vasiliauskaite & Nino Antulov-Fantulin, 2021. "Ask "Who", Not "What": Bitcoin Volatility Forecasting with Twitter Data," Papers 2110.14317, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    18. Mária Bohdalová & Michal Greguš, 2018. "China’S Market And Global Economic Factors," CBU International Conference Proceedings, ISE Research Institute, vol. 6(0), pages 58-61, September.
    19. Liang, Chao & Tang, Linchun & Li, Yan & Wei, Yu, 2020. "Which sentiment index is more informative to forecast stock market volatility? Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    20. Li, Yue & W. Goodell, John & Shen, Dehua, 2021. "Does happiness forecast implied volatility? Evidence from nonparametric wave-based Granger causality testing," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 113-122.
    21. Baker, H. Kent & Kumar, Satish & Goyal, Kirti & Sharma, Anuj, 2021. "International review of financial analysis: A retrospective evaluation between 1992 and 2020," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social media sentiment; Gold; S&P 500; ARIMA; GARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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