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Dynamics of final sectoral energy demand and aggregate energy intensity

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  • Lescaroux, François

Abstract

This paper proposes a regional and sectoral model of global final energy demand. For the main end-use sectors of consumption (industrial, commercial and public services, residential and road transportation), per-capita demand is expressed as an S-shaped function of per-capita income. Other variables intervene as well, like energy prices, temperatures and technological trends. This model is applied on a panel of 101 countries and 3 aggregates (covering the whole world) and it explains fairly well past variations in sectoral, final consumption since the beginning of the 2000s. Further, the model is used to analyze the dynamics of final energy demand, by sector and in total. The main conclusion concerns the pattern of change for aggregate energy intensity. The simulations performed show that there is no a priori reason for it to exhibit a bell-shape, as reported in the literature. Depending on initial conditions, the weight of basic needs in total consumption and the availability of modern commercial energy resources, various forms might emerge.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

Volume (Year): 39 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 66-82

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Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:1:p:66-82

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

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Keywords: Energy demand Modeling Energy intensity;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Zhou, Sheng & Kyle, G. Page & Yu, Sha & Clarke, Leon E. & Eom, Jiyong & Luckow, Patrick & Chaturvedi, Vaibhav & Zhang, Xiliang & Edmonds, James A., 2013. "Energy use and CO2 emissions of China's industrial sector from a global perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 284-294.
  2. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
  3. Indranarain Ramlall, 2012. "Modelling Non-Renewable Energy in Mauritius: In Quest for Sustainable Policies towards a Greener Economy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 123-133.
  4. Richard S. J. Tol & Sebastian Petrick & Katrin Rehdanz, 2012. "The Impact of Temperature Changes on Residential Energy Use," Working Paper Series 4412, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.

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