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Impact of changes in crude oil trade network patterns on national economy

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  • Xi, Xian
  • Zhou, Jinsheng
  • Gao, Xiangyun
  • Liu, Donghui
  • Zheng, Huiling
  • Sun, Qingru

Abstract

Crude oil is one of the most important energy sources for the development of the national economy. The regions along the Belt and Road are rich in crude oil resources. As the Belt and Road Initiative (B&R Initiative) progresses and develops further, an increasing numbers of countries are participating, which thus increases trade cooperation and changes the pattern of crude oil trade among countries along the Belt and Road (B&R countries). This change will have various impacts on the economies of different countries. Based on the complex network and econometric theory, we study the impact of crude oil trade pattern changes of the B&R countries on each country's GDP. We obtained the following results: (1) The impact of national trade influence on GDP was significant and positive, particularly after the initiative was proposed. (2) The centrality of the country's role in the trade network had a significant and favorable impact on GDP, but it was weakened after the initiative was introduced. (3) The impact of the country's import risk in the network on GDP was negative. (4) For countries with different economic levels, changes in the role of national trade had various effects on their GDPs.

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  • Xi, Xian & Zhou, Jinsheng & Gao, Xiangyun & Liu, Donghui & Zheng, Huiling & Sun, Qingru, 2019. "Impact of changes in crude oil trade network patterns on national economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:84:y:2019:i:c:s0140988319302713
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104490
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