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An interpretable machine-learned model for international oil trade network

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  • Xie, Wen-Jie
  • Wei, Na
  • Zhou, Wei-Xing

Abstract

Energy security and energy trade are the cornerstones of global economic and social development. The structural robustness of the international oil trade network (iOTN) plays an important role in the global economy. We integrate the machine learning optimization algorithm, game theory, and utility theory for learning an oil trade decision-making model that contains the benefit endowment and cost endowment of economies in international oil trades. We have reconstructed the network degree, clustering coefficient, and closeness of the iOTN well to verify the effectiveness of the model. In the end, policy simulations based on game theory and agent-based model are carried out in a more realistic environment. We find that export-oriented economies are more vulnerable to being affected than import-oriented economies after receiving external shocks. Moreover, the impact of the increase and decrease of trade friction costs on the international oil trade is asymmetrical, and there are significant differences between international organizations.

Suggested Citation

  • Xie, Wen-Jie & Wei, Na & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2023. "An interpretable machine-learned model for international oil trade network," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:82:y:2023:i:c:s0301420723002210
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103513
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global oil market; Oil trade network; Machine learning; Policy simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • P4 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification

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