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Exploring IMAGE model scenarios that keep greenhouse gas radiative forcing below 3 W/m2 in 2100

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  • van Vuuren, Detlef P.
  • Stehfest, Elke
  • den Elzen, Michel G.J.
  • van Vliet, Jasper
  • Isaac, Morna

Abstract

A high probability of limiting temperature increase to 2 °C requires a radiative forcing below 3 W/m2, around the end of this century, according to current knowledge. This paper identifies conditions under which achieving such low radiative forcing levels is feasible. Calculations here show that such targets could be achieved, based on technical and physical considerations, provided some key conditions are met. These key conditions include early participation by major sectors and regions in sufficiently stringent policy regimes, and a wide portfolio of mitigation options. Bio-energy and carbon capture and storage (CCS) play an important role in achieving low stabilisation targets. This would require optimistic assumptions with respect to the expansion of the area needed for food production, to allow space for bio-energy crops, and a significant increase in the efficiency of second-generation biofuels. The sensitivity analysis shows that if certain technologies are removed from the available portfolio, low targets -- especially the 2.6 W/m2 target -- are no longer within reach.

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  • van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Stehfest, Elke & den Elzen, Michel G.J. & van Vliet, Jasper & Isaac, Morna, 2010. "Exploring IMAGE model scenarios that keep greenhouse gas radiative forcing below 3 W/m2 in 2100," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1105-1120, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:32:y:2010:i:5:p:1105-1120
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    2. Koponen, Kati & Soimakallio, Sampo & Kline, Keith L. & Cowie, Annette & Brandão, Miguel, 2018. "Quantifying the climate effects of bioenergy – Choice of reference system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 2271-2280.
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    5. Favero, Alice & Mendelsohn, Robert & Sohngen, Brent, 2016. "Carbon Storage and Bioenergy: Using Forests for Climate Mitigation," MITP: Mitigation, Innovation and Transformation Pathways 232215, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    6. van Ruijven, Bas J. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & van Vliet, Jasper & Mendoza Beltran, Angelica & Deetman, Sebastiaan & den Elzen, Michel G.J., 2012. "Implications of greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenarios for the main Asian regions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 459-469.
    7. Luderer, Gunnar & Pietzcker, Robert C. & Carrara, Samuel & de Boer, Harmen Sytze & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Johnson, Nils & Mima, Silvana & Arent, Douglas, 2017. "Assessment of wind and solar power in global low-carbon energy scenarios: An introduction," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 542-551.
    8. Takeshita, Takayuki, 2012. "Assessing the co-benefits of CO2 mitigation on air pollutants emissions from road vehicles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 225-237.
    9. Tommi Ekholm, 2014. "Hedging the climate sensitivity risks of a temperature target," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 153-167, November.
    10. Michel Elzen & Angelica Beltran & Andries Hof & Bas Ruijven & Jasper Vliet, 2013. "Reduction targets and abatement costs of developing countries resulting from global and developed countries’ reduction targets by 2050," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 491-512, April.
    11. Hailu Wondmageghu Tenfie & Fokke Saathoff & Dereje Hailu & Alemayehu Gebissa, 2022. "Selection of Representative General Circulation Models for Climate Change Study Using Advanced Envelope-Based and Past Performance Approach on Transboundary River Basin, a Case of Upper Blue Nile Basi," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-18, February.
    12. Selosse, Sandrine & Ricci, Olivia, 2014. "Achieving negative emissions with BECCS (bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) in the power sector: New insights from the TIAM-FR (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model France) model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 967-975.
    13. P. A. Turner & K. J. Mach & D. B. Lobell & S. M. Benson & E. Baik & D. L. Sanchez & C. B. Field, 2018. "The global overlap of bioenergy and carbon sequestration potential," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 1-10, May.
    14. Favero, Alice & Massetti, Emanuele, 2014. "Trade of woody biomass for electricity generation under climate mitigation policy," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 166-190.
    15. Patrick Criqui & Alban Kitous, 2012. "2010-2020 : une décennie décisive pour l'avenir du climat planétaire," Post-Print halshs-00709938, HAL.
    16. Luise Röpke, 2015. "Essays on the Integration of New Energy Sources into Existing Energy Systems," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 58.
    17. Derek Lemoine & Sabine Fuss & Jana Szolgayova & Michael Obersteiner & Daniel Kammen, 2012. "The influence of negative emission technologies and technology policies on the optimal climate mitigation portfolio," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 141-162, July.
    18. Overmars, Koen P. & Stehfest, Elke & Tabeau, Andrzej & Meijl, Hans van & Beltrán, Angelica Mendoza & Kram, Tom, 2012. "Estimating the costs of reducing CO2 emission via avoided deforestation with integrated assessment modeling," Conference papers 332261, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    19. Detlef Vuuren & Keywan Riahi, 2011. "The relationship between short-term emissions and long-term concentration targets," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 793-801, February.
    20. Alice Favero & Robert Mendelsohn, 2014. "Using Markets for Woody Biomass Energy to Sequester Carbon in Forests," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 75-95.

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