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2010-2020 : une décennie décisive pour l'avenir du climat planétaire

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  • Patrick Criqui

    ()
    (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Économie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - CNRS : FRE3389 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II)

  • Alban Kitous

    (IPTS - European Joint Research Center - Commission européenne)

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    Abstract

    L'avenir du climat planétaire à long terme se jouera au cours des prochaines décennies. Alors que le développement économique s'est fondé depuis deux siècles sur le développement massif des énergies fossiles, la question majeure pour l'énergie au XXIe siècle est certainement celle de la transition vers des systèmes énergétiques bas carbone. Cela supposera des transformations profondes, voire des ruptures, dans les variables structurelles qui caractérisent le développement énergétique de chaque région du monde, en particulier l'intensité énergétique du PIB et l'intensité en carbone du mix énergétique. L'accumulation des gaz à effet de serre dans l'atmosphère et donc le climat pour les générations futures dépendra directement de la capacité de la communauté internationale à se mobiliser pour mettre en œuvre rapidement les bifurcations nécessaires.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00709938.

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    Date of creation: Jun 2012
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    Publication status: Published, Economie Appliquée, 2012, LXV, n° 2, " Questions pour Rio+20 ", 47-76
    Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00709938

    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00709938
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    Related research

    Keywords: TRANSITION ENERGETIQUE ; CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE ; MIX ENERGETIQUE;

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    1. Robert N. Stavins, 2012. "An Unambiguous Consequence of the Durban Climate Talks," Review of Environment, Energy and Economics - Re3, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, March.
    2. Patrick Criqui & Silvana Mima, 2012. "European climate -- energy security nexus: A model based scenario analysis," Post-Print halshs-00661043, HAL.
    3. Freeman, Chris & Louca, Francisco, 2002. "As Time Goes By: From the Industrial Revolutions to the Information Revolution," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199251056, September.
    4. Criqui, Patrick & Mima, Silvana, 2012. "European climate—energy security nexus: A model based scenario analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 827-842.
    5. van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Stehfest, Elke & den Elzen, Michel G.J. & van Vliet, Jasper & Isaac, Morna, 2010. "Exploring IMAGE model scenarios that keep greenhouse gas radiative forcing below 3 W/m2 in 2100," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1105-1120, September.
    6. Alban Kitous, Patrick Criqui, Elie Bellevrat and Bertrand Chateau, 2010. "Transformation Patterns of the Worldwide Energy System - Scenarios for the Century with the POLES Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
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