Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Takeover risk and the correlation between stocks and bonds

Contents:

Author Info

  • Bhanot, Karan
  • Mansi, Sattar A.
  • Wald, John K.
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Existing research suggests that, for a given firm, stock returns and bond prices are positively related, and this implies a negative relation between stock returns and bond spreads. In this paper, we show how takeover risk influences this relation. Bondholders of high-rated firms can suffer losses in a takeover, particularly if the takeover is largely funded with debt, resulting in a more positive (or less negative) correlation between stock returns and bond spread changes. Consistent with this notion and based on a large sample of data covering the period from 1980 to 2000, we find that high-rated firms which are likely to be taken over have a more positive correlation between stock returns and bond spread changes, while target firms with a poison put or an indebtedness covenant have a more negative correlation. Overall, our findings have implications for the pricing and hedging of bonds and default risk based financial products such as credit default swaps.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VFG-4XM6K81-1/2/2eaf2a6dc27b06bf27c0b4d88da14541
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.

    Volume (Year): 17 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 3 (June)
    Pages: 381-393

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:17:y:2010:i:3:p:381-393

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin

    Related research

    Keywords: Stock-bond correlation Takeover probability Debt covenants;

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Klock, Mark S. & Mansi, Sattar A. & Maxwell, William F., 2005. "Does Corporate Governance Matter to Bondholders?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(04), pages 693-719, December.
    2. Campbell, John, 1987. "Stock Returns and the Term Structure," Scholarly Articles 3207699, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    3. Campbell, J.Y. & Ammer, J., 1991. "What Moves The Stock And Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition For Long- Term Asset Returns," Papers 127, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
    4. Asquith, Paul, 1948- & Wizman, Thierry A., 1990. "Event risk, covenants, and bondholder returns in leveraged buyouts," Working papers WP 3173-90., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    5. Bradley, Michael & Desai, Anand & Kim, E. Han, 1988. "Synergistic gains from corporate acquisitions and their division between the stockholders of target and acquiring firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 3-40, May.
    6. Comment, Robert & Schwert, G. William, 1995. "Poison or placebo? Evidence on the deterrence and wealth effects of modern antitakeover measures," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 3-43, September.
    7. Yaxuan Qi & John Wald, 2008. "State Laws and Debt Covenants," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(1), pages 179-207, 02.
    8. Beim, D.O., 1992. "Estimating Bond Liquidity," Papers 92-08, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
    9. Ghosh, Aloke & Jain, Prem C., 2000. "Financial leverage changes associated with corporate mergers," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 377-402, December.
    10. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    11. Cook, Douglas O & Easterwood, John C, 1994. " Poison Put Bonds: An Analysis of Their Economic Role," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1905-20, December.
    12. Leland, Hayne E, 1994. " Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1213-52, September.
    13. Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986. "Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December.
    14. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October.
    15. John Y. Campbell & Glen B. Taksler, 2002. "Equity Volatility and Corporate Bond Yields," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1945, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    16. Assem Safieddine & Sheridan Titman, 1999. "Leverage and Corporate Performance: Evidence from Unsuccessful Takeovers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 547-580, 04.
    17. Martijn Cremers & Vinay Nair & Kose John, 2005. "Takeovers and the Cross-Section of Returns," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2393, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Sep 2007.
    18. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    19. Moeller, Sara B. & Schlingemann, Frederik P. & Stulz, Rene M., 2004. "Firm size and the gains from acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 201-228, August.
    20. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
    21. Asquith, Paul & Wizman, Thierry A., 1990. "Event risk, covenants, and bondholder returns in leveraged buyouts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 195-213, September.
    22. Craig H. Furfine & Richard J. Rosen, 2006. "Mergers and risk," Working Paper Series WP-06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    23. Newey, Whitney K., 1984. "A method of moments interpretation of sequential estimators," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 14(2-3), pages 201-206.
    24. Palepu, Krishna G., 1986. "Predicting takeover targets : A methodological and empirical analysis," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 3-35, March.
    25. K.J. Martijn Cremers & Vinay B. Nair & Chenyang Wei, 2007. "Governance Mechanisms and Bond Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(5), pages 1359-1388, 2007 07.
    26. Ronald W. Masulis & Cong Wang & Fei Xie, 2007. "Corporate Governance and Acquirer Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1851-1889, 08.
    27. Jordan, James V. & Mansi, Sattar A., 2003. "Term structure estimation from on-the-run Treasuries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1487-1509, August.
    28. Chen, Ren-Raw & Sopranzetti, Ben J., 2003. "The Valuation of Default-Triggered Credit Derivatives," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(02), pages 359-382, June.
    29. Bates, Thomas W. & Becher, David A. & Lemmon, Michael L., 2008. "Board classification and managerial entrenchment: Evidence from the market for corporate control," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 656-677, March.
    30. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
    31. Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
    32. Kwan, Simon H., 1996. "Firm-specific information and the correlation between individual stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 63-80, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:17:y:2010:i:3:p:381-393

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.