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Takeovers and the Cross-Section of Returns

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  • Martijn Cremers
  • Vinay Nair
  • Kose John

Abstract

This paper considers the impact of takeover (or acquisition) likelihood on firm valuation. If firms are more likely to acquire during times when they have free cash and/or when the required rate of return is low, takeover targets become more sensitive to shocks to aggregate cash flows and/or to the price of risk. Thus, ceteris paribus, firms that are exposed to takeovers will have a different rate of return from firms that are protected from takeovers. Using estimates of the likelihood that a firm will be acquired, we create a takeover-spread portfolio that buys firms with a high likelihood of being acquired and shorts firms with low likelihood of being acquired. Relative to the Fama-French model, the takeover-spread portfolio generates annualized abnormal returns of up to 12% between 1980 and 2004. Further, the takeover-spread portfolio is shown to be important in explaining cross-sectional differences in equity returns. Additionally, using a two-beta model that distinguishes cash flow shocks from discount rate shocks, we show that firms more likely to be taken over have higher betas on the aggregate cash factor. Finally, we provide an explanation for the existence of abnormal returns associated with governancespread portfolios (Gompers, Ishii and Metrick, 2003 and Cremers and Nair, 2005), and relate the takeover-spread portfolio returns to takeover activity in the economy.

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File URL: http://icfpub.som.yale.edu/publications/2393
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Yale School of Management in its series Yale School of Management Working Papers with number amz2393.

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Date of creation: 01 Feb 2005
Date of revision: 01 Sep 2007
Handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:amz2393

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Web page: http://icf.som.yale.edu/
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Keywords: Governance; equity prices; risk; time-varying risk premia; takeovers Working Paper Series;

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References

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  1. Campbell, John, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Scholarly Articles 3207695, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Robert J. Hodrick & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2000. "Evaluating the Specification Errors of Asset Pricing Models," NBER Working Papers 7661, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  17. K. J. Martijn Cremers & Vinay B. Nair, 2005. "Governance Mechanisms and Equity Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2859-2894, December.
  18. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1985. "The characteristics of takeover targets and other measures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 351-362, September.
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  23. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A Cross-Sectional Test When Risk Premia Are Time-Varying," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1238-1287, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Core, John E. & Guay, Wayne R. & Verdi, Rodrigo, 2008. "Is accruals quality a priced risk factor?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 2-22, September.
  2. Cohen, Alma & Wang, Charles C.Y., 2013. "How do staggered boards affect shareholder value? Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 627-641.
  3. Armstrong, Christopher S. & Balakrishnan, Karthik & Cohen, Daniel, 2012. "Corporate governance and the information environment: Evidence from state antitakeover laws," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 185-204.
  4. Renneboog, Luc & Szilagyi, Peter G., 2011. "The role of shareholder proposals in corporate governance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 167-188, February.
  5. Cornett, Marcia Millon & Tanyeri, Basak & Tehranian, Hassan, 2011. "The effect of merger anticipation on bidder and target firm announcement period returns," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 595-611, June.
  6. Greenwood, Robin & Schor, Michael, 2009. "Investor activism and takeovers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 362-375, June.
  7. Bruno Maria Parigi & Loriana Pelizzon & Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, 2013. "Stock Market Returns, Corporate Governance and Capital Market Equilibrium," CESifo Working Paper Series 4496, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. Vermaelen, Theo & Xu, Moqi, 2014. "Acquisition finance and market timing," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 73-91.
  9. Lin, Ji-Chai & Stephens, Clifford P. & Wu, YiLin, 2014. "Limited attention, share repurchases, and takeover risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 283-301.
  10. Bodnaruk, Andriy & Massa, Massimo & Simonov, Andrei, 2013. "Alliances and corporate governance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 671-693.
  11. Vijh, Anand M. & Yang, Ke, 2013. "Are small firms less vulnerable to overpriced stock offers?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 61-86.
  12. Bhanot, Karan & Mansi, Sattar A. & Wald, John K., 2010. "Takeover risk and the correlation between stocks and bonds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 381-393, June.
  13. He, Jie (Jack) & Tian, Xuan, 2013. "The dark side of analyst coverage: The case of innovation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 856-878.
  14. Bebchuk, Lucian A. & Cohen, Alma & Wang, Charles C.Y., 2013. "Learning and the disappearing association between governance and returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 323-348.
  15. Koch, Adam S. & Lefanowicz, Craig E. & Robinson, John R., 2012. "The effect of quarterly earnings guidance on share values in corporate acquisitions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 1269-1285.

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