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On the political determinants of sovereign risk: Evidence from a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model for Argentina

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  • Sottile, Pedro

Abstract

While empirical sovereign credit risk models have portrayed default as driven mainly by economic and financial risk factors, this investigation addresses the relative importance of political risk that the empirical literature has often overlooked. A Markov-switching vector autoregressive model is applied to data from the Republic of Argentina to assess the timing and thresholds of the dynamic system. Results show the significance of political factors in explaining sovereign risk for Argentina, and demonstrate the feasibility and value of the proposed methodology.

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  • Sottile, Pedro, 2013. "On the political determinants of sovereign risk: Evidence from a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model for Argentina," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 160-185.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:15:y:2013:i:c:p:160-185
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2013.02.005
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    3. Batten, Jonathan A. & Jacoby, Gady & Liao, Rose C., 2014. "Corporate yield spreads and real interest rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 89-100.
    4. Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres & Evaristo Galeana-Figueroa & José Álvarez-García, 2021. "A Markov-Switching VSTOXX Trading Algorithm for Enhancing EUR Stock Portfolio Performance," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-28, May.
    5. Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres & Evaristo Galeana-Figueroa & José Álvarez-García, 2020. "Markov-Switching Stochastic Processes in an Active Trading Algorithm in the Main Latin-American Stock Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-22, June.
    6. Mili, Mehdi, 2019. "The impact of tradeoff between risk and return on mean reversion in sovereign CDS markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 187-200.
    7. Batten, Jonathan A. & Kinateder, Harald & Wagner, Niklas, 2014. "Multifractality and value-at-risk forecasting of exchange rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 401(C), pages 71-81.
    8. Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres & Evaristo Galeana-Figueroa & María de la Cruz Del Río-Rama & José Álvarez-García, 2022. "Using Markov-Switching Models in US Stocks Optimal Portfolio Selection in a Black–Litterman Context (Part 1)," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-28, April.
    9. Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres & Dora Aguilasocho-Montoya & María de la Cruz del Río-Rama, 2020. "A Two-Regime Markov-Switching GARCH Active Trading Algorithm for Coffee, Cocoa, and Sugar Futures," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-19, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Republic of Argentina; Markov-switching model; Regime shifts; Vector autoregressive; Political risk; Sovereign risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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