IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ejores/v292y2021i2p755-769.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Large portfolio losses in a turbulent market

Author

Listed:
  • Tang, Qihe
  • Tong, Zhiwei
  • Yang, Yang

Abstract

Consider a large credit portfolio of defaultable obligors in a turbulent market. Accordingly, the credit quality process of each obligor is described by a stochastic differential equation consisting of a drift term reflecting the trend, an individual volatility term reflecting the idiosyncratic risk, and a common volatility term reflecting the systematic risk. Moreover, for each obligor a market beta is used to measure its loading on the systematic risk. The obligor defaults at the first passage time of the credit quality process. We approximate the portfolio loss as the portfolio size becomes large. For the usual case where the individual defaults do not become rare, we establish a limit theorem for the portfolio loss, while for the other case where the individual defaults become rare, which is due to portfolio effect, we establish an asymptotic estimate for its tail probability. Both results show that the portfolio loss is driven by the systematic risk, while this driving force is amplified by the market beta. As an application, we derive asymptotic estimates for the value at risk and expected shortfall of the portfolio loss. Moreover, we implement intensive numerical studies to examine the accuracy of the obtained approximations and conduct some sensitivity analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Tang, Qihe & Tong, Zhiwei & Yang, Yang, 2021. "Large portfolio losses in a turbulent market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 292(2), pages 755-769.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:292:y:2021:i:2:p:755-769
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2020.10.043
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221720309346
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejor.2020.10.043?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & Martin Lettau & Burton G. Malkiel & Yexiao Xu, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, February.
    2. Kay Giesecke & Konstantinos Spiliopoulos & Richard B. Sowers & Justin A. Sirignano, 2015. "Large Portfolio Asymptotics For Loss From Default," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 77-114, January.
    3. Philippe Aghion & Nicholas Bloom & Brian Lucking & Raffaella Sadun & John Van Reenen, 2021. "Turbulence, Firm Decentralization, and Growth in Bad Times," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 133-169, January.
    4. Giesecke, Kay & Weber, Stefan, 2006. "Credit contagion and aggregate losses," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 741-767, May.
    5. Natalie Packham & Lutz Schloegl & Wolfgang M. Schmidt, 2013. "Credit gap risk in a first passage time model with jumps," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(12), pages 1871-1889, December.
    6. Lutz Schloegl & Dominic O’Kane, 2005. "A note on the large homogeneous portfolio approximation with the Student-t copula," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 577-584, October.
    7. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2017. "Measuring Systemic Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 2-47.
    8. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos & Serletis, Demitre, 2015. "Nonlinear And Complex Dynamics In Economics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(8), pages 1749-1779, December.
    9. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2000. "Martingales, nonlinearity, and chaos," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 703-724, June.
    10. Amir Dembo & Jean-Dominique Deuschel & Darrell Duffie, 2004. "Large portfolio losses," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 3-16, January.
    11. Calabrese, Raffaella & Zenga, Michele, 2010. "Bank loan recovery rates: Measuring and nonparametric density estimation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 903-911, May.
    12. Grunert, Jens & Weber, Martin, 2009. "Recovery rates of commercial lending: Empirical evidence for German companies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 505-513, March.
    13. Ben Hambly & Nikolaos Kolliopoulos, 2020. "Fast mean-reversion asymptotics for large portfolios of stochastic volatility models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 757-794, July.
    14. Robert A. Jarrow & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 17, pages 377-409, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Kay Giesecke & Konstantinos Spiliopoulos & Richard B. Sowers & Justin A. Sirignano, 2011. "Large Portfolio Asymptotics for Loss From Default," Papers 1109.1272, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2015.
    16. Rabitti, Giovanni & Borgonovo, Emanuele, 2020. "Is mortality or interest rate the most important risk in annuity models? A comparison of sensitivity analysis methods," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 48-58.
    17. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    18. Paolo Dai Pra & Wolfgang J. Runggaldier & Elena Sartori & Marco Tolotti, 2007. "Large portfolio losses: A dynamic contagion model," Papers 0704.1348, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2009.
    19. Gordy, Michael B., 2003. "A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 199-232, July.
    20. Jens Hilscher & Mungo Wilson, 2017. "Credit Ratings and Credit Risk: Is One Measure Enough?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(10), pages 3414-3437, October.
    21. Lucas, Andre & Klaassen, Pieter & Spreij, Peter & Straetmans, Stefan, 2001. "An analytic approach to credit risk of large corporate bond and loan portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1635-1664, September.
    22. Cantia, Catalin & Tunaru, Radu, 2017. "A factor model for joint default probabilities. Pricing of CDS, index swaps and index tranches," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 21-35.
    23. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Kroese, Dirk P., 2010. "Efficient estimation of large portfolio loss probabilities in t-copula models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 205(2), pages 361-367, September.
    24. Jankowitsch, Rainer & Nagler, Florian & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2014. "The determinants of recovery rates in the US corporate bond market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 155-177.
    25. Youngna Choi & Raphael Douady, 2012. "Financial crisis dynamics: attempt to define a market instability indicator," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(9), pages 1351-1365, August.
    26. Giesecke, Kay & Weber, Stefan, 2004. "Cyclical correlations, credit contagion, and portfolio losses," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 3009-3036, December.
    27. Ben Hambly & Andreas Søjmark, 2019. "An SPDE model for systemic risk with endogenous contagion," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 535-594, July.
    28. Alexander J. McNeil & Rüdiger Frey & Paul Embrechts, 2015. "Quantitative Risk Management: Concepts, Techniques and Tools Revised edition," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 2, number 10496.
    29. Paul Glasserman & Jingyi Li, 2005. "Importance Sampling for Portfolio Credit Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(11), pages 1643-1656, November.
    30. Tang, Qihe & Tang, Zhaofeng & Yang, Yang, 2019. "Sharp asymptotics for large portfolio losses under extreme risks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 276(2), pages 710-722.
    31. Kay Giesecke & Konstantinos Spiliopoulos & Richard B. Sowers, 2011. "Default clustering in large portfolios: Typical events," Papers 1104.1773, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2013.
    32. Wang, Joanna J.J. & Chan, Jennifer S.K. & Choy, S.T. Boris, 2011. "Stochastic volatility models with leverage and heavy-tailed distributions: A Bayesian approach using scale mixtures," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 852-862, January.
    33. Edward I. Altman & Brooks Brady & Andrea Resti & Andrea Sironi, 2005. "The Link between Default and Recovery Rates: Theory, Empirical Evidence, and Implications," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 2203-2228, November.
    34. Ben Hambly & Nikolaos Kolliopoulos, 2018. "Fast mean-reversion asymptotics for large portfolios of stochastic volatility models," Papers 1811.08808, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2020.
    35. Nada Mora, 2012. "What determines creditor recovery rates?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 97(Q II).
    36. Achal Bassamboo & Sandeep Juneja & Assaf Zeevi, 2008. "Portfolio Credit Risk with Extremal Dependence: Asymptotic Analysis and Efficient Simulation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(3), pages 593-606, June.
    37. Dai Pra, Paolo & Tolotti, Marco, 2009. "Heterogeneous credit portfolios and the dynamics of the aggregate losses," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 119(9), pages 2913-2944, September.
    38. Paul Glasserman & Wanmo Kang & Perwez Shahabuddin, 2008. "Fast Simulation of Multifactor Portfolio Credit Risk," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(5), pages 1200-1217, October.
    39. Guangwu Liu, 2015. "Simulating Risk Contributions of Credit Portfolios," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(1), pages 104-121, February.
    40. Ole E. Barndorff‐Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2001. "Non‐Gaussian Ornstein–Uhlenbeck‐based models and some of their uses in financial economics," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 63(2), pages 167-241.
    41. Paul Glasserman & Wanmo Kang & Perwez Shahabuddin, 2007. "Large Deviations In Multifactor Portfolio Credit Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 345-379, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tang, Qihe & Tong, Zhiwei & Xun, Li, 2022. "Portfolio risk analysis of excess of loss reinsurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 91-110.
    2. Zhang, Jichen & Chen, Zengjing, 2023. "A transitivity property of Ocone martingales," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tang, Qihe & Tang, Zhaofeng & Yang, Yang, 2019. "Sharp asymptotics for large portfolio losses under extreme risks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 276(2), pages 710-722.
    2. Konstantinos Spiliopoulos, 2014. "Systemic Risk and Default Clustering for Large Financial Systems," Papers 1402.5352, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2015.
    3. Justin Sirignano & Kay Giesecke, 2019. "Risk Analysis for Large Pools of Loans," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(1), pages 107-121, January.
    4. Cheng-Der Fuh & Chuan-Ju Wang, 2017. "Efficient Exponential Tilting for Portfolio Credit Risk," Papers 1711.03744, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2019.
    5. Konstantinos Spiliopoulos & Jia Yang, 2018. "Network effects in default clustering for large systems," Papers 1812.07645, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2020.
    6. Mohamed A. Ayadi & Hatem Ben-Ameur & Nabil Channouf & Quang Khoi Tran, 2019. "NORTA for portfolio credit risk," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 281(1), pages 99-119, October.
    7. Caballero, Diego & Lucas, André & Schwaab, Bernd & Zhang, Xin, 2020. "Risk endogeneity at the lender/investor-of-last-resort," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 283-297.
    8. Konstantinos Spiliopoulos & Richard B. Sowers, 2013. "Default Clustering in Large Pools: Large Deviations," Papers 1311.0498, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2015.
    9. Hsieh, Ming-Hua & Lee, Yi-Hsi & Shyu, So-De & Chiu, Yu-Fen, 2019. "Estimating multifactor portfolio credit risk: A variance reduction approach," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    10. Xiaowei Zhang & Jose Blanchet & Kay Giesecke & Peter W. Glynn, 2015. "Affine Point Processes: Approximation and Efficient Simulation," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 40(4), pages 797-819, October.
    11. Parrini, Alessandro, 2013. "Importance Sampling for Portfolio Credit Risk in Factor Copula Models," MPRA Paper 103745, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Jean-David Fermanian, 2020. "On the Dependence between Default Risk and Recovery Rates in Structural Models," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 140, pages 45-82.
    13. Spiliopoulos, Konstantinos & Sowers, Richard B., 2011. "Recovery rates in investment-grade pools of credit assets: A large deviations analysis," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 121(12), pages 2861-2898.
    14. Ben Hambly & Nikolaos Kolliopoulos, 2020. "Fast mean-reversion asymptotics for large portfolios of stochastic volatility models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 757-794, July.
    15. Kay Giesecke & Konstantinos Spiliopoulos & Richard B. Sowers, 2011. "Default clustering in large portfolios: Typical events," Papers 1104.1773, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2013.
    16. Daniel Rösch & Harald Scheule, 2011. "Securitization rating performance and agency incentives," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, volume 58, pages 287-314, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Ferrer, Alex & Casals, José & Sotoca, Sonia, 2016. "Efficient estimation of unconditional capital by Monte Carlo simulation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 75-84.
    18. Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2009. "The Empirical Relation between Credit Quality, Recovery and Correlation," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-418, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    19. Tim J. Brereton & Dirk P. Kroese & Joshua C. Chan, 2012. "Monte Carlo Methods for Portfolio Credit Risk," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2012-579, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    20. Wei, Li & Yuan, Zhongyi, 2016. "The loss given default of a low-default portfolio with weak contagion," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 113-123.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:292:y:2021:i:2:p:755-769. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.