IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1402.5352.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Systemic Risk and Default Clustering for Large Financial Systems

Author

Listed:
  • Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

Abstract

As it is known in the finance risk and macroeconomics literature, risk-sharing in large portfolios may increase the probability of creation of default clusters and of systemic risk. We review recent developments on mathematical and computational tools for the quantification of such phenomena. Limiting analysis such as law of large numbers and central limit theorems allow to approximate the distribution in large systems and study quantities such as the loss distribution in large portfolios. Large deviations analysis allow us to study the tail of the loss distribution and to identify pathways to default clustering. Sensitivity analysis allows to understand the most likely ways in which different effects, such as contagion and systematic risks, combine to lead to large default rates. Such results could give useful insights into how to optimally safeguard against such events.

Suggested Citation

  • Konstantinos Spiliopoulos, 2014. "Systemic Risk and Default Clustering for Large Financial Systems," Papers 1402.5352, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1402.5352
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1402.5352
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Duffie, Darrell & Saita, Leandro & Wang, Ke, 2007. "Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 635-665, March.
    2. Josselin Garnier & George Papanicolaou & Tzu-Wei Yang, 2012. "Large deviations for a mean field model of systemic risk," Papers 1204.3536, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2012.
    3. Giesecke, Kay & Weber, Stefan, 2006. "Credit contagion and aggregate losses," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 741-767, May.
    4. Spiliopoulos, Konstantinos & Sowers, Richard B., 2011. "Recovery rates in investment-grade pools of credit assets: A large deviations analysis," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 121(12), pages 2861-2898.
    5. Gordy, Michael B., 2003. "A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 199-232, July.
    6. Stefan Weber & Kay Giesecke, 2003. "Credit Contagion and Aggregate Losses," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 246, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. Paul Dupuis & Hui Wang, 2007. "Subsolutions of an Isaacs Equation and Efficient Schemes for Importance Sampling," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 32(3), pages 723-757, August.
    8. Lijun Bo & Agostino Capponi, 2014. "Bilateral credit valuation adjustment for large credit derivatives portfolios," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 431-482, April.
    9. Dai Pra, Paolo & Tolotti, Marco, 2009. "Heterogeneous credit portfolios and the dynamics of the aggregate losses," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 119(9), pages 2913-2944, September.
    10. Paul Glasserman & Wanmo Kang & Perwez Shahabuddin, 2007. "Large Deviations In Multifactor Portfolio Credit Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 345-379, July.
    11. Jin‐Chuan Duan, 1994. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation Using Price Data Of The Derivative Contract," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 155-167, April.
    12. Ronnie Sircar & Thaleia Zariphopoulou, 2010. "Utility valuation of multi-name credit derivatives and application to CDOs," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 195-208.
    13. Lutz Schloegl & Dominic O’Kane, 2005. "A note on the large homogeneous portfolio approximation with the Student-t copula," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 577-584, October.
    14. Amir Dembo & Jean-Dominique Deuschel & Darrell Duffie, 2004. "Large portfolio losses," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 3-16, January.
    15. Konstantinos Spiliopoulos & Richard B. Sowers, 2010. "Recovery Rates in investment-grade pools of credit assets: A large deviations analysis," Papers 1006.2711, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2011.
    16. Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
    17. Shaojie Deng & Kay Giesecke & Tze Leung Lai, 2012. "Sequential Importance Sampling and Resampling for Dynamic Portfolio Credit Risk," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 60(1), pages 78-91, February.
    18. René Carmona & Jean-Pierre Fouque & Douglas Vestal, 2009. "Interacting particle systems for the computation of rare credit portfolio losses," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 613-633, September.
    19. Paolo Dai Pra & Wolfgang J. Runggaldier & Elena Sartori & Marco Tolotti, 2007. "Large portfolio losses: A dynamic contagion model," Papers 0704.1348, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2009.
    20. Lucas, Andre & Klaassen, Pieter & Spreij, Peter & Straetmans, Stefan, 2001. "An analytic approach to credit risk of large corporate bond and loan portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1635-1664, September.
    21. Christoph Meinerding, 2012. "Asset Allocation And Asset Pricing In The Face Of Systemic Risk: A Literature Overview And Assessment," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(03), pages 1-27.
    22. Paul Glasserman & Jingyi Li, 2005. "Importance Sampling for Portfolio Credit Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(11), pages 1643-1656, November.
    23. Kay Giesecke & Konstantinos Spiliopoulos & Richard B. Sowers, 2011. "Default clustering in large portfolios: Typical events," Papers 1104.1773, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2013.
    24. Achal Bassamboo & Sandeep Juneja & Assaf Zeevi, 2008. "Portfolio Credit Risk with Extremal Dependence: Asymptotic Analysis and Efficient Simulation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(3), pages 593-606, June.
    25. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Cacho-Diaz, Julio & Laeven, Roger J.A., 2015. "Modeling financial contagion using mutually exciting jump processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 585-606.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Konstantinos Spiliopoulos & Jia Yang, 2018. "Network effects in default clustering for large systems," Papers 1812.07645, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2020.
    2. Ben Hambly & Andreas Søjmark, 2019. "An SPDE model for systemic risk with endogenous contagion," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 535-594, July.
    3. Fang Fei & Sun Yiwei & Spiliopoulos Konstantinos, 2017. "On the effect of heterogeneity on flocking behavior and systemic risk," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 34(3-4), pages 141-155, September.
    4. Fei Fang & Yiwei Sun & Konstantinos Spiliopoulos, 2016. "The effect of heterogeneity on flocking behavior and systemic risk," Papers 1607.08287, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2017.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tang, Qihe & Tong, Zhiwei & Yang, Yang, 2021. "Large portfolio losses in a turbulent market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 292(2), pages 755-769.
    2. Konstantinos Spiliopoulos & Jia Yang, 2018. "Network effects in default clustering for large systems," Papers 1812.07645, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2020.
    3. Tang, Qihe & Tang, Zhaofeng & Yang, Yang, 2019. "Sharp asymptotics for large portfolio losses under extreme risks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 276(2), pages 710-722.
    4. Justin Sirignano & Kay Giesecke, 2019. "Risk Analysis for Large Pools of Loans," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(1), pages 107-121, January.
    5. Amogh Deshpande, 2014. "Comparing the Value at Risk Performance of the CreditRisk + and its Enhancement: A Large Deviations Approach," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 1009-1023, December.
    6. Konstantinos Spiliopoulos & Richard B. Sowers, 2013. "Default Clustering in Large Pools: Large Deviations," Papers 1311.0498, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2015.
    7. Kay Giesecke & Konstantinos Spiliopoulos & Richard B. Sowers, 2011. "Default clustering in large portfolios: Typical events," Papers 1104.1773, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2013.
    8. Xiaowei Zhang & Jose Blanchet & Kay Giesecke & Peter W. Glynn, 2015. "Affine Point Processes: Approximation and Efficient Simulation," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 40(4), pages 797-819, October.
    9. Patrick Gagliardini & Christian Gouriéroux, 2011. "Approximate Derivative Pricing for Large Classes of Homogeneous Assets with Systematic Risk," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 237-280, Spring.
    10. Ben Hambly & Nikolaos Kolliopoulos, 2020. "Fast mean-reversion asymptotics for large portfolios of stochastic volatility models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 757-794, July.
    11. Kay Giesecke & Konstantinos Spiliopoulos & Richard B. Sowers & Justin A. Sirignano, 2011. "Large Portfolio Asymptotics for Loss From Default," Papers 1109.1272, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2015.
    12. Anand Deo & Sandeep Juneja, 2021. "Credit Risk: Simple Closed-Form Approximate Maximum Likelihood Estimator," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 69(2), pages 361-379, March.
    13. Fred E. Benth & Geir Dahl & Carlo Mannino, 2012. "Computing Optimal Recovery Policies for Financial Markets," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 60(6), pages 1373-1388, December.
    14. Spiliopoulos, Konstantinos & Sowers, Richard B., 2011. "Recovery rates in investment-grade pools of credit assets: A large deviations analysis," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 121(12), pages 2861-2898.
    15. Mohamed A. Ayadi & Hatem Ben-Ameur & Nabil Channouf & Quang Khoi Tran, 2019. "NORTA for portfolio credit risk," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 281(1), pages 99-119, October.
    16. Gagliardini, Patrick & Gouriéroux, Christian, 2013. "Correlated risks vs contagion in stochastic transition models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2241-2269.
    17. Anand Deo & Sandeep Juneja, 2019. "Credit Risk: Simple Closed Form Approximate Maximum Likelihood Estimator," Papers 1912.12611, arXiv.org.
    18. Albrecht, Peter, 2005. "Kreditrisiken - Modellierung und Management: Ein Überblick," German Risk and Insurance Review (GRIR), University of Cologne, Department of Risk Management and Insurance, vol. 1(2), pages 22-152.
    19. André Lucas & Bernd Schwaab & Xin Zhang, 2017. "Modeling Financial Sector Joint Tail Risk in the Euro Area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 171-191, January.
    20. Guangwu Liu, 2015. "Simulating Risk Contributions of Credit Portfolios," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(1), pages 104-121, February.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1402.5352. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.